Team Previews: NL Central

NL Central Team Previews

Editor's Note: Click on a team under Projected Final Standings to jump to that particular team's rundown.

Projected Final Standings

Chicago Cubs: 94-68
St. Louis Cardinals: 90-72
Pittsburgh Pirates: 85-77
Milwaukee Brewers: 73-89
Cincinnati Reds: 68-94

Chicago Cubs

State of the Franchise

After five straight fifth-place finishes with 75 wins or fewer, the Cubs broke through ahead of schedule in 2015, as their first prospect wave arrived in style and powered them to 97 wins, a win over the Pirates in the Wild Card game and a victory over the rival Cardinals in the NLDS. Coming into 2016, those talented youngsters have the experience of a postseason run and another year of baseball under their belts. Add to that core the free agent acquisitions of Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, and John Lackey, and it's easy to see why the historically cursed Cubs are one of the sexiest World Series picks this year.

If all goes as planned, the Cubs should challenge 100 wins. It's rarely that simple, though -- teams will adjust to players like Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler; Jake Arrieta may revert from Cy Young pitcher to a mere No. 2 starter; ace Jon Lester is aging; bullpens are fickle beasts. But even if some of these things do go wrong, the Cubs have such a stacked lineup and rotation that it's hard to see them falling too far. The additions serve as great insurance against any sophomore slumps, and few squads can match either their depth or their star power.

Pitcher to Watch

Jon Lester finished his fourth straight 200-inning season in 2015 and his second straight recording at least a strikeout per inning. But there were a few shaky parts of his game that showed up that are concerning. First off, the league caught onto Lester's almost total inability to throw the ball to first base, as he allowed a ridiculous 44 stolen bases, most in the league -- Tyson Ross and A.J. Burnett were the only other pitchers to allow more than 30. Secondly, Lester's velocity is down to 92.0 mph on average after he spent 2009-2013 in the 92.6-93.7 mph range. He turns 32 this year, and it's time to start wondering if he'll be able to sustain his velocity. Lester has recorded an ERA under 3.00 just once in his career and has just a 3.58 ERA (113 ERA+) since 2012. Lester is treated as an ace, but the numbers haven't backed that up over the past few years.

Hitter to Watch

Kris Bryant lived up to the hype in his first year in the majors, as he mashed 26 home runs and posted a sharp .275/.369/.488 batting line. As expected, Bryant struggled to make contact -- he struck out 30.6% of the time after regularly striking out at least 25 percent of the time in the minors -- but he turned out to be so good at everything else that it didn't matter. He walked in 11.8% of plate appearances and made consistently hard contact as he smashed 31 doubles and five triples to go with his big home run total. He was consistently good all year long, too, as he had an .848 OPS in the first half and an .867 mark in the second half. There's always some concern about a sophomore slump with any young player as the league adjusts, but Bryant's skill set is deep and he still has room to improve if he can turn some of those doubles into home runs or increase his ability to make contact.

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP

Jason Heyward, CF
Ben Zobrist, 2B
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Kris Bryant, 3B
Kyle Schwarber, LF
Jorge Soler, RF
Miguel Montero, C
Addison Russell, SS

vs. LHP

Jason Heyward, CF
Ben Zobrist, 2B
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Kris Bryant, 3B
Kyle Schwarber, LF
Jorge Soler, RF
Miguel Montero, C
Addison Russell, SS

Projected Rotation

Jon Lester
Jake Arrieta
John Lackey
Kyle Hendricks
Jason Hammel

Bullpen Hierarchy

Closer: Hector Rondon
Setup: Pedro Strop, Travis Wood
Middle Relief: Trevor Cahill, Justin Grimm, Rex Brothers

Rondon has 59 saves in 67 chances in his first two seasons as closer and dropped his ERA to a pristine 1.67 in 2015. Even if he likely won't repeat that in 2016 -- it's hard enough for pitchers like Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel who have huge strikeout numbers, and Rondon has yet to strike out a batter per inning in the majors -- Rondon has excellent control of a nasty arsenal and has earned some leeway with his performance over the past two years. Pedro Strop continues to be an excellent find for the Cubs with great groundball ability, but he's better suited for a setup role than a closer's role.

Riser

Addison Russell showed he has the defensive chops to play shortstop last season, which opened the door for the Cubs to pursue Ben Zobrist. Russell qualifies at both middle infield positions in 2016, where his surprising power (13 home runs in 523 plate appearances) will play extremely well. Russell managed a competent .242/.307/.389 line despite striking out in 28.4% of his plate appearances in 2015. If he can get his strikeout rate down to what it was in the minors -- typically in the 15-23 percent range -- Russell won't just be an adequate shortstop, he'll be able to get more out of his raw power and can excel at what is an incredibly weak position. Russell showed improvement in the second half -- .259/.318/.427 with eight of his 13 home runs, partially driven by a drop in strikeout rate from 31.1% to 25.8%. He's just 22 and has a solid minor league track record behind him, a good sign that he can continue that same improvement into 2016.

Faller

Ben Zobrist hit just 13 home runs in 2015, but more concerning is that he last hit more than 13 way back in 2012 with the Rays. Zobrist's 35 home runs rank just 11th among second basemen since 2013. And while his versatility is typically an asset, his bat no longer plays well next to corner outfielders, and he finally lost his eligibility at shortstop in 2015, the first year he hasn't appeared at the position since 2011. Between Zobrist's solid glovework and his improving contact skills (career best 10.0% strikeout rate in 2015), he has a lot to offer the Cubs on the field. But he has turned into a singles hitter who rarely runs (three steals in 2015), and that puts a hard ceiling on his fantasy value. He'll still be worthwhile at a weak second base position, but his name hardly screams premium value any more.

Sleeper

It's easy to forget about Kyle Hendricks in the Cubs' rotation behind Lester and Jake Arrieta, but behind Hendricks' middling 3.95 ERA were some very intriguing signs he can improve in his second full season in the rotation in 2016. After striking out just 5.3 batters per nine innings in 2014, Hendricks struck out 167 batters in 180 innings in 2015 (8.4 K/9), all while maintaining his solid control and groundball ability. His 3.36 FIP was nearly equivalent to his 3.32 mark from 2014, when he posted a 2.46 ERA. Wrigley Field and its wind can make for some fickle results, as an outing with the wind blowing out can easily tack on a couple of lucky home runs to a pitcher's ledger. Even still, Hendricks has only allowed 21 home runs in his 45 starts as a Cub. He doesn't have ace stuff by any means, with a fastball that averages just 88.2 mph, but he has excellent command and control and shouldn't be allowed to slip through the cracks.

Supersleeper

Javier Baez's strikeout issues have indeed turned out to be a problem, as he has struck out a ridiculous 119 times in just 80 major league games thus far. But he showed he has little left to learn in Triple-A last year (.324/.385/.527 in 70 games) and his defensive chops across the infield are valuable enough to earn him a spot on a major league roster. Whether that means he serves as a super utility man for the Cubs (he has been learning the outfield in winter leagues this year to add to his infield wizardry) or he becomes an intriguing trade chip for a team looking for young talent, Baez is probably going to find his way into some at-bats this year. And that means the homers are coming -- even with his ridiculous strikeout issues, he already has 10 major league homers in 309 plate appearances. If he can find any semblance of contact abilities, look out.

St. Louis Cardinals

State of the Franchise

Since the Cardinals last won the World Series in 2011, the club has a league-leading 375 regular season victories, but it has turned that summer success into just one pennant and three losses in the National League Championship Series. It's unclear what ramifications last year's hacking scandal will have for the organization beyond the conviction of former front office employee Chris Correa. But the Cardinals still have a model player development program and have done an excellent job of replacing aging or injured stars in the past, and their roster and farm system remains strong heading into 2016.

The Cardinals continue to add fresh talent to what has been a perennially strong roster, and 2016 looks like it will be no different. There are legitimate questions about what the Cardinals can expect to get from old standbys like Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina, and Adam Wainwright, but the growth of young players like Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, and Carlos Martinez should keep the Cardinals competitive once again. Can their depth overcome the Cubs' superstars? That will be the big question driving the National League Central race in 2016.

Pitcher to Watch

Jaime Garcia was racked by injuries throughout 2013 and 2014 and was sidelined to open the season, but he made 20 starts after returning to action in May and was stellar, as he posted a 2.43 ERA and went 10-6 with 97 strikeouts in 129.2 innings. He was a groundball machine, as he induced 2.7 grounders for every flyball he allowed. He's a finesse pitcher, as his fastball averages just 90.2 mph. But he is just 29 years old this year and has enjoyed great success when healthy, and there's no reason he can't find the same kind of success he found in 2011 and 2012 if he can just stay on the mound.

Hitter to Watch

Stephen Piscotty showed big-time power in 63 games for the Cardinals in 2015, as he mashed 26 extra-base hits and posted a .305/.359/.494 batting line in 256 plate appearances. It was enough to give Piscotty the inside track on the starting right field job this spring. Piscotty had 41 extra-base hits in just 87 games at Triple-A before his promotion, giving him 67 -- including 18 home runs -- for the full season. Given a full season of at-bats in the majors, Piscotty is capable of 20 homers, and even if he likely strikes out too much (21.9% in 2015) to hit .300 long-term, he hits the ball hard with enough regularity that he should still hit for a strong average.

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP

Matt Carpenter, 3B
Stephen Piscotty, RF
Matt Holliday, LF
Randal Grichuk, CF
Jhonny Peralta, SS
Brandon Moss, 1B
Kolten Wong, 2B
Yadier Molina, C

vs. LHP

Matt Carpenter, 3B
Stephen Piscotty, RF
Matt Holliday, LF
Randal Grichuk, CF
Jhonny Peralta, SS
Brandon Moss, 1B
Jedd Gyorko, 2B
Yadier Molina, C

Projected Rotation

Adam Wainwright
Michael Wacha
Jaime Garcia
Carlos Martinez
Mike Leake

Bullpen Hierarchy

Closer: Trevor Rosenthal
Setup: Seth Maness, Jonathan Broxton
Middle Relief: Kevin Siegrest, Miguel Socolovich, Tim Cooney

After a shaky 2014, Rosenthal found his control again in 2015, and with 93 saves in the past two years, he is one of the more secure closers in baseball. While both Maness and Broxton have had success in setup roles in recent years, neither presents a threat to Rosenthal's throne in St. Louis.

Riser

Randal Grichuk was once known simply as the player taken one pick before Mike Trout, but after mashing 17 home runs in 103 games last year, Grichuk has played his way into the Cardinals' starting center field role. Grichuk also hit 23 doubles and seven triples en route to his .276/.329/.548 final line. Unfortunately, he also struck out 110 times (31.4%) and that puts a hard ceiling on his batting average. He's probably going to hit closer to .240 than the .276 mark he put up in 2015 as a result. But Grichuk is just 24 and should only improve his ability to get more out of his huge raw power. With full-time at-bats, the sky's the limit for Grichuk's power production.

Faller

Age is starting to show for Matt Holliday, who his seen his slugging percentage drop in each of the past six seasons, down to a career low .410 in 2015. Holliday hit just four home runs in 73 games last year after mashing at least 20 home runs in each of the previous eight seasons. Even if his power partially returns in 2016 at age 36, Holliday is no longer the kind of hitter who can compete for MVP awards. He now gets by on his excellent discipline and solid contact abilities, which will work just fine on the field for the Cardinals, but will likely underwhelm fantasy owners used to big production from the seven-time All-Star.

Sleeper

Brandon Moss struggled to find his groove in Cleveland but hit a sharp .250/.344/.409 with 12 extra-base hits in 51 games after a trade to the Cardinals. Given Matt Adams' struggles last year (.240/.280/.377), Moss could see lots of at-bats at first base, and he'll also serve as a backup option for Holliday in left field and Piscotty in right field. The Cardinals should find plenty of chances for Moss to get at-bats, and with at-bats, he has found a way to produce, as he has 95 home runs in 521 games over the past four years -- a solid 30 homers per 600 plate appearances. If the Cardinals give him the chance, there's no reason he can't keep that up.

Supersleeper

Jedd Gyorko was a disappointment in San Diego, no doubt about it, but it was also one of the worst possible home parks for Gyorko's pull-power skill set. Despite the cavernous home park, Gyorko still has 49 home runs over the past three seasons, a mark surpassed by only three other second basemen (Brian Dozier, Robinson Cano and Neil Walker). Gyorko will be behind Kolten Wong on the depth chart to begin the season, but Wong had an atrocious finish to 2015 -- he hit just .239/.300/.343 in his final 100 games from June 1 on -- and if his stumbles continue in 2016, Gyorko will be there to put the pressure on. St. Louis still isn't a great hitter's park, but getting out from under San Diego's marine layer and Petco Park's huge walls can't possibly hurt. He's capable of 20 homers if he gets the playing time.

Pittsburgh Pirates

State of the Franchise

The Pirates have won 280 games over the past three years, second only to the Cardinals, and all they have to show for it is a Division Series loss and two exits after the Wild Card game. The core of this team is still great, but how long can the Pirates afford to keep enough talent around stars like Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole to compete with the Cubs and Cardinals? The Pirates have the stars to compete, but it remains to be seen if there's enough depth.

The presence of top-tier talent like McCutchen, Cole, Francisco Liriano, Mark Melancon and Starling Marte makes the Pirates a force to be reckoned with. But there are some glaring holes on the roster -- shortstop, first base, catcher and the back-end of the rotation, specifically. Perhaps a player like Tyler Glasnow graduates and fills in that hole; perhaps the Pirates make a midseason trade to improve; perhaps a young player like Gregory Polanco steps up and gives Pittsburgh another superstar. But until that actually happens, the Pirates have to be considered a step behind the Cubs and Cardinals.

Pitcher to Watch

Francisco Liriano struck out 200 batters for the first time since 2010, and he's actually turned into something of a model of consistency in Pittsburgh, as he recorded a 3.38 ERA in both 2014 and 2015. Injuries will always be a concern with Liriano, who has never pitched a 200-inning season or started more than 31 games. But Liriano reined in his control last year, dropping his BB/9 to 3.4, his lowest since joining the Pirates. The big difference was with his offspeed pitches, his changeup and slider, which he threw for balls 37 percent of the time in 2014 but just 34 percent of the time in 2015. Both of those pitches induce whiffs over 20 percent of the time, so when he's able to put them in or around the zone, he's nearly untouchable. If Liriano can keep that control in 2016, look for him to post another brilliant season and challenge 200 strikeouts and a 3.00 ERA again.

Hitter to Watch

Jung-Ho Kang was enjoying a brilliant rookie season before a takeout slide ended it prematurely, but in 126 games he posted 15 home runs and a sharp .287/.355/.461 line while showing solid defense at both shortstop and third base. Kang is currently expected to return in mid-April, although he hasn't ruled out an Opening Day start. The key will be seeing if he can still generate power with his rehabilitated knee. Kang had four seasons of at least 20 home runs in Korea, including a 40-homer campaign in his final season before coming stateside, so his power last season shouldn't be considered a fluke. Even if he plays mostly third base this season, he'll qualify at shortstop in most fantasy leagues. He socked 41 extra-base hits last season, and that power will put him among the elite shortstop class if he can stay healthy.

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP

Gregory Polanco, RF
Josh Harrison, 2B
Andrew McCutchen, OF
Starling Marte, OF
Jung-Ho Kang, 3B
John Jaso, 1B
Francisco Cervelli, C
Jordy Mercer, SS

vs. LHP

Josh Harrison, 2B
Starling Marte, OF
Andrew McCutchen, OF
Michael Morse, 1B
Gregory Polanco, RF
Jung-Ho Kang, 3B
Francisco Cervelli, C
Jordy Mercer, SS

Projected Rotation

Gerrit Cole
Francisco Liriano
Jeff Locke
Jon Niese
Ryan Vogelsong

Bullpen Hierarchy

Closer: Mark Melancon
Setup: Tony Watson, Jared Hughes
Middle Relief: Arquimedes Caminero, Neftali Feliz, Juan Nicasio

No competition here, as Melancon has saved 84 games over the past two seasons and led the majors with 51 in 2015.

Riser

Starling Marte's power showed up last season, as he set a professional career high with 19 home runs in 2015 and added 30 doubles. Marte just turned 27 in October, and he's still approaching what should be his peak power potential. Throw in his consistency on the bases (30 stolen bases each of the past two seasons and 101 steals since 2013) and handling the bat (at least a .280 average each of the past three seasons) and Marte offers the total package in the outfield. Hitting behind Andrew McCutchen will only help showcase his excellent skill set as he rounds into what should be his best years.

Faller

Josh Harrison always looked like a useful speedy, contact-driven utility player, but the power he showed in 2014 suggested he could be something bigger. That power completely dissipated in 2015, as he hit just four home runs and one triple after hitting 13 homers and seven triples in 2014. His strikeout rate was excellent again in 2015, as he struck out just 15.8% of the time, but he wasn't doing enough to stay in the lineup or get on base regularly, and he stole just 10 bases as a result. Harrison's versatility -- he played at least 15 games at second base, third base and outfield in 2015 -- still makes him useful, but his bat only plays well at the middle infield positions unless he can rediscover his power stroke from 2014.

Sleeper

John Jaso has hit far too well over the past four years to be left out of major league lineups. Injuries and his defensive deficiencies have limited him to just 347 games since 2012, but his .273/.373/.431 batting line (127 OPS+) over those four years was enough to convince the Pirates to take a shot at converting him into a first baseman. Jaso will qualify at outfield in some leagues (eight games played last year) and is coming off one of his best years in which he hit .286/.380/.459 in 70 games for Tampa Bay. Look for him to provide a solid average and score plenty of runs thanks to his on-base abilities if the defensive transition goes well in Pittsburgh.

Supersleeper

The back-end of the Pirates' rotation is shaky, as none of Jeff Locke, Jon Niese nor Ryan Vogelsong inspires confidence. If (when?) the Pirates are forced to call for reinforcements, the most talented youngster on the farm is Tyler Glasnow, who dominated Double-A and Triple-A as he struck out 130 batters and recorded a 2.34 ERA in 104 innings across the upper levels of the minor leagues. He is considered an extreme long shot to make the club's Opening Day roster. But he has electric stuff and is generating strikeouts like mad in the minors, and he'll be a hot fantasy commodity as soon as he reaches the majors.

Milwaukee Brewers

State of the Franchise

The Brewers have jettisoned much of their previous core since last summer's trade deadline. Under new GM David Stearns, Milwaukee will begin a rebuilding period. Through trades and free agency, the Brewers have assembled an intriguing group of young talent made available for a variety of reasons -- long injury histories, perceived makeup problems, positional logjams elsewhere -- who will be trying to make their case to be a part of Milwaukee's next contending group. Even though the Brewers won't contend, they'll have plenty of potential fantasy diamonds in the rough.

Aside from Ryan Braun, the Brewers are an exceptionally young team. But with young talent comes growing pains, and the club lacks the top-level talent necessary to compete in what has become an exceptionally tough division in the National League Central. The rebuilding is just beginning in Milwaukee, and the bigger question in 2016 will be who's worth keeping around for the future.

Hitter To Watch

Khris Davis struggled mightily out of the gates last year, as he hit just one home run in April and carried a brutal .603 OPS through his first 25 games. But the enticing power Davis flashed showed up in droves over the rest of the season, as Davis hit .258/.332/.559 with 26 home runs in just 343 plate appearances -- a 45-homer pace over a 600 plate appearance season -- from May 6th through the rest of the season. Not only that, but Davis proved he could handle right-handed pitching, posting an .864 OPS against righties after posting a putrid .683 mark in the same split just a year prior. Milwaukee is a great launching pad for hitters with Davis' raw power, and it looked like he finally figured out how to harness it in 2015.

Pitcher To Watch

Jimmy Nelson has the sharpest stuff of the Brewers' posse of young starting pitchers, and he showed flashes of what he can do with it in 2015. His six games of at least six shutout innings tied him for 11th in the majors, one behind Lance Lynn and Sonny Gray and tied with 11 pitchers including David Price, Felix Hernandez, and Gerrit Cole, according to Baseball-Reference. The problem was he also had five starts of five innings or fewer with at least five earned runs allowed. Experience should help, as Nelson pitched the longest season of his career last year (177.1 innings) and looked like he ran out of gas at the end. If he can smooth out the kinks in his second full season, he could turn into a solid top-half-of-the-rotation pitcher.

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP

Jonathan Villar, SS
Jonathan Lucroy, C
Ryan Braun, RF
Khris Davis, LF
Aaron Hill, 3B
Chris Carter, 1B
Domingo Santana, CF
Scooter Gennett, 2B

vs. LHP

Jonathan Villar, SS
Jonathan Lucroy, C
Ryan Braun, RF
Khris Davis, LF
Aaron Hill, 3B
Chris Carter, 1B
Domingo Santana, CF
Scooter Gennett, 2B

Rotation

Wily Peralta
Jimmy Nelson
Taylor Jungmann
Matt Garza
Chase Anderson

Bullpen Hierarchy

Closer: Will Smith
Setup: Jeremy Jeffress
Middle Relief: Michael Blazek, Corey Knebel, Tyler Thornburg

Smith is expected to win the role out of spring training, but he will face some competition from Jeffress, the right-handed option from last year's setup tandem. Those two have a clear leg up against the rest of Milwaukee's relievers.

Riser

Will Smith struggled with his control as Milwaukee's setup man in 2014, as he walked 4.3 batters per nine innings and allowed a 3.70 ERA despite possessing one of baseball's nastiest sliders. In 2015, Smith figured things out, as he sliced nearly a full walk off his BB/9 and cut an entire run off his ERA. With Francisco Rodriguez shipped out, Smith is the natural bet to close. His 12.9 K/9 in 2015 ranked sixth among qualified relievers. His slider is nasty enough that it's an effective weapon against hitters from either side of the plate. The biggest concern for fantasy owners might be his value getting so high the Brewers decide to trade him at the deadline to a team where he'll fill a setup role instead of closing.

Faller

Wily Peralta is the de facto staff ace given his seniority, but the 27-year-old hasn't been able to get his career going, whether due to injuries, ineffectiveness, or as it was in 2015, both. His fastball, while still formidable at 94.1 mph, was 1.5 mph slower than in 2014. Worse, his slider lost its zip, as he drew whiffs on just 11 percent of his sliders while throwing it for a ball 44 percent of the time. Peralta gave us something to believe in in 2014, when he posted a 3.53 ERA and regularly kept hitters off balance with his velocity. But Peralta's lack of control and lack of a strikeout pitch has thus far cancelled out every bit of the advantage he gets from his nasty, heavy sinker, and until he can figure out his secondary stuff, he's nothing more than back-end material.

Sleeper

It's not 100 percent certain that Domingo Santana will open the season with a starting role in the outfield. His glove doesn't play well in center field, and Khris Davis and Ryan Braun have a lock on starting jobs in the corner. But he has nothing left to prove at Triple-A, as he torched minor league pitchers for a .329/.420/.549 line last year, and it will be hard for Milwaukee to justify keeping his punch (8 HR in just 160 at-bats last year) out of the lineup. He's a strikeout machine, as he whiffed in 33.7% of plate appearances in 2015, consistent with the kind of strikeout numbers he posted throughout his minor league career. But Santana generates massive power with his 6-foot-5, 225 pound frame and could easily top 20 home runs given consistent playing time in 2016 if the Brewers are willing to tolerate the growing pains at the plate and in the field.

Supersleeper

Jonathan Villar was pushed out of Houston thanks to the presence of Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve, but with Jean Segura dealt to Arizona, he'll get the chance to start every day at shortstop in Milwaukee. Villar hit well when he took the field for Houston last year, with a .284/.339/.414 line in 128 plate appearances. Including his 70 games in Triple-A, Villar stole 42 bases in 123 professional games in 2015, and with regular playing time, he should be a great source of speed in Milwaukee, and even if his bat has been inconsistent, it won't take much to be adequate for the shortstop position.

Cincinnati Reds

State of the Franchise

After winning 90 games and reaching the playoffs three times in four years from 2010-2013, the Reds' window appears to be closed, as Cincinnati won just 64 games in 2015, their worst season since going 61-101 in 1982. The 2015 offseason saw the Reds jettison stars in Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman as they begin the rebuilding efforts. Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips remain in place, but there isn't much nailed down in Cincinnati right now. 2016 will be about setting the stage for the next youth movement to make an impact.

This Reds team is a shell of the club that tore up the NL Central in years past. Votto is the only player from the team's core still playing at a star level. The youngsters haven't arrived yet and it doesn't look like much help will be on the way in 2016. There's still some tearing down to do before the rebuilding can even begin.

Pitcher To Watch

Cuban 26-year-old Raisel Iglesias showed nasty stuff in his debut last year. He posted just a 4.15 ERA in his 18 appearances (16 starts), but he flashed a vicious slider, a heavy sinker, and an intriguing changeup. He struck out 104 batters in just 95.1 innings (9.8 K/9) and was near the league average in both walk rate (2.6) and groundball rate (47.2%). Iglesias showed fantastic control of his slider (just 31% called balls) while inducing whiffs over 20 percent of the time, a great sign of a truly nasty secondary pitch. His changeup, meanwhile, induced nearly 27 groundballs per flyball according to Brooks Baseball. That allows him to keep hitters from both sides of the plate off balance while avoiding the home run problems that often plague pitchers at Great American Ball Park. For 2016, the question will be if American hitters who hadn't faced Iglesias until 2015 will find more success against his diverse repertoire now that they've seen what he can do.

Hitter To Watch

Adam Duvall is the classic quad-A slugger, a deeply flawed batter without much of a glove but with the kind of power teams just can't give up on. He's a strikeout machine, but Duvall hit 126 home runs in the minors from 2011-2015, an average of over 25 per season, and he hit five in just 72 plate appearances with the Reds as he earned some time during their lost 2015 campaign. Duvall's power plays particularly well at Great American Ball Park, where what would be easy flyballs in other parks can sneak over the short fences for homers. Duvall has already struck out 46 times in just 149 major league plate appearances (30.9%), but if he gets full-time at-bats for the Reds, he's capable of a 30-homer season, and with the Reds clearing the deck for the future, the at-bats should be there.

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP

Zack Cozart, SS
Jay Bruce, RF
Joey Votto, 1B
Brandon Phillips, 2B
Devin Mesoraco, C
Eugenio Suarez, 3B
Adam Duvall, LF
Billy Hamilton, CF

vs. LHP

Zack Cozart, SS
Jay Bruce, RF
Joey Votto, 1B
Brandon Phillips, 2B
Devin Mesoraco, C
Eugenio Suarez, 3B
Adam Duvall, LF
Billy Hamilton, CF

Projected Rotation

Anthony DeSclafani
Raisel Iglesias
Brandon Finnegan
Jon Moscot
Keyvius Sampson
*John Lamb (behind schedule following back surgery)
*Homer Bailey (expected return from Tommy John in mid-May)

Bullpen Hierarchy

Potential Closers: Jumbo Diaz, J.J. Hoover, Tony Cingrani

Other relievers: Carlos Contreras, Michael Lorenzen, Keyvius Sampson, Blake Wood

The Reds' bullpen is in some disarray after the departure of Aroldis Chapman. Hoover may have the inside track, as Cingrani struggled mightily in 2015, and Diaz has made just one Opening Day roster at age 32. Hoover has set up Chapman for the last four years and owns a 3.54 ERA in 193 innings over that span. Cingrani was awful in his first year as a reliever (5.67 ERA, 6.8 BB/9 in 33.1 innings) but has big-time stuff that would fit well in the closer role if he can figure out his control in spring training. Diaz has a 3.88 ERA (100 ERA+) in his two major league seasons, and while he deserves a spot in the bullpen, he would appear to be overmatched as a closer.

Riser

Anthony DeSclafani gave up a 4.65 ERA in the second half, but a deeper look shows a lot to like. After walking 41 batters in 101 first-half innings, he allowed just 14 free passes in 83.2 innings after the break, and he struck out three more batters in the second half than in the first half despite throwing nearly 20 fewer innings. The problem was a .341 BABIP. DeSclafani finished with a solid 3.67 FIP in 2015, showed improved control, continues to put up a solid strikeout rate, and induced 10 percent more groundballs than the previous season, a critical improvement given his home ballpark. He'll be the ace of the staff until Homer Bailey returns, and at 26 in April, he should still be getting better.

Faller

Brandon Phillips bounced back with 23 stolen bases and a .294 batting average in 2015, and even though he only hit 12 home runs, that stat line plays up in what is an extremely weak second base crop. But Phillips turns 35 in June and will have to keep his legs healthy all year to repeat such a performance. Worse, Phillips needed a .315 BABIP, his best in four years, to maintain his high batting average. He has become increasingly a groundball hitter without the home run threat he carried earlier in his career, and a return to the tepid .266 batting average and single-digit home run total he posted in 2014 is a distinct possibility.

Sleeper

Eugenio Suarez hit 13 home runs in part-time action, and Todd Frazier's departure to the White Sox has opened up third base for Suarez full-time in 2016. He had yet to show much power in his professional career until last season -- including his 57 games in Triple-A, Suarez finished with 20 home runs in a professional season for the first time. At just 24 years old, Suarez is still growing into his power, and 81 games at Great American Ball Park will only help his power numbers. He lacks plate discipline, but he's a line drive hitter with an ability to use the entire field (60% of batted balls up the middle or the other way in 2015), and the Reds will let the youngster cook as they see if he can be their third baseman of the future in 2016.

Supersleeper

Jose Peraza was a top-100 prospect heading into 2015, but since then he's been traded twice and has lost some of that luster. Still, there's a lot to like with Peraza, who shot through the low minors and was a competent contact hitter in his brief time at Double-A and Triple-A before a brief promotion in 2015 in which he struggled to find a rhythm. Peraza's main fantasy asset is his speed, as he stole over 60 bases in 2013 and 2014 and still managed 36 despite shuffling between levels and systems in 2015. If the Reds manage to unload Brandon Phillips, Peraza stands to be the main beneficiary and could become a strong source of speed if he gets the chance.