MLB Barometer: Projecting Improved Pitching Performances for the 2nd Half

I needed some inspiration for this week's edition of the Barometer, so I decided to dig into the archives to see what types of articles Erik Halterman was writing around this time of the season. One of the ideas that caught my eye was written roughly two years ago, when he projected the players who would see their performance improve the most over the course of the second half. This week's edition of the Barometer will tweak Halterman's original idea slightly.

First, this week's article focuses solely on pitchers before we switch to hitters for next week's edition. Rather than focus just on risers, we'll also look at some pitchers who are unlikely to continue their current positive form. The method for determining each group is a combination of both xERA and SIERA compared to a pitcher's actual ERA. We'll start with a few charts to show some of the luckiest and unluckiest pitchers based on each metric.

From there, the goal is to pick out players who seem to have an actual chance of changing their level of performance. For example, Aaron Nola has the highest difference between both his xERA and SIERA to his actual ERA, yet the gap is almost identical to last year – as are his skills. His inflated home run mark is almost certainly the cause of this, yet he hasn't improved that at all in the last two seasons. For those reasons, he won't be included in this article.

With that in mind, let's get to our projected risers and fallers for the second half of the 2026 campaign.

Risers

Trevor Rogers 5.30 ERA/4.21 xERA/4.78 SIERA 

Rogers has been a frustrating pitcher for fantasy managers throughout his career, and this year is no exception. The most obvious, and really only, change to his skills profile has been a lack of strikeouts. In 2025, Rogers struck out 24.3 percent of the batters he faced, with that mark falling to 17.3 percent this year. Some of that looks to be deserved. His swinging strike rate has dipped from 12.5 percent to 10.5 percent, but even that declining mark should lead to more strikeouts than he currently generates.

His underlying metrics, beyond just his swinging strike rate, also support the idea that he should see improved results. When his strikeout rate had dipped in earlier portions of his career, his velocity fell in a corresponding manner. That hasn't been the case this year, with his velocity remaining very stable from last season.

One area where Rogers' profile has changed, which could be positive is his fly ball rate. That number has jumped to 45.9 percent this season, while his quality of contact surrendered has slightly improved both in terms of barrel rate and average exit velocity. More fly balls that don't leave the park should generally turn into outs, which makes his 62.9 percent left-on base rate all the more perplexing.

Overall, Rogers isn't likely to turn back into the fantasy ace of last season, but he should return to relevance in most league formats this summer.

Freddy Peralta 4.53 ERA/3.75 xERA/4.17 SIERA 

The case for Peralta isn't as straightforward, but it felt important to include him on the list given that he is substantially underperforming both his SIERA and xERA, and because he is relevant in every fantasy format. His skills and underlying metrics have both worsened to suggest he does deserve worse results than those the fantasy community has come to expect. His 22.1 K percentage would be the worst of his career by five percentage points, but his swinging strike rate has fallen in line. His velocity has also dipped, so it's not clear that his typical strikeout rate will return.

Peralta has a particularly wide gap between his ERA and xERA, so it's important to consider exactly what xERA measures before diving any further. Per the MLB.com Glossary, xERA converts xwOBA to an ERA scale. It takes into account strikeouts and walks as well as the quality of contact a pitcher surrenders. The former doesn't lead to a particularly high amount of optimism for Peralta, but the latter does. While he has given up more contact, it hasn't been of a particularly high quality. Peralta's average exit velocity (87.8 mph) sits in the 69th percentile, while his 5.5 percent barrel rate allowed is in the 78th percentile. Similarly, his launch angle matches a career low of 14.6.  

Relying on quality of contact is less sustainable than projecting more whiffs, but there is a case for Peralta to perform better in the second half. His track record is also certainly a positive point. On the other hand, there is the opposite concern that the Mets are going to be mentally checked out, hurting the defense behind him and potentially his run support. The numbers say Peralta is a great buy low, but there are reasons to have less confidence.   

Shota Imanaga 4.40 ERA/3.66 xERA/3.80 SIERA

The analysis is perhaps the easiest for Imanaga. Home runs have consistently been a story to his game, and that's once again the case this season, and it's likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future. Imanaga also has the worst surface stats of his stateside career, which is certainly unfair given the skills he's displayed. While not a fire-baller, Imanaga's velocity has bounced back to the 91.9 mph average he established in 2024, and both his swinging strike rate and strikeout percentage have fallen back into the same very strong range Imanaga displayed in his rookie season. Even with a very strong 17.6 K-BB percentage, his ability to generate whiffs is still out-pacing his strikeout pace, something that could even out as the season progresses.

The same is true of the quality of contact he has surrendered. He has limited hard contact at a better-than-average clip, as measured by both hard hit percentage and average exit velocity. Even if his barrels continue to fly over the wall, he isn't letting a lot of runners on base due to that quality of contact surrendered and excellent control.

Solo home runs aren't the end of the world, and all other signs point to a big second half for Imanaga.

Jesus Luzardo 4.38 ERA/3.27 SIERA/3.24 xERA

Luzardo is venturing into the same territory as teammate Nola, in that he consistently seems to underperform his expected stats/SIERA while also suffering from poor luck. However, there is additional improvement in his underlying skill and pitch-mix profiles that suggests perhaps the second half is when he can finally break free from some of the inconsistency that has plagued him throughout his career. Drilling down a bit further, Luzardo has shifted away from his fastball, throwing it at a career-low 26 percent clip. That pitch has caused most of the home runs and damage against him throughout his career.

That shift in pitch mix seems to be the cause of the drastic improvement in Luzardo's quality of contact allowed. He is setting career-best marks in nearly every metric measuring quality of contact, most notably xwOBAcon, average exit velocity, hard hit percentage and barrel rate. Luzardo has continued to generate strikeouts and maintain an elite K-BB percentage, so he should be poised for a very strong second half.

Honorable Mention – Bryan Woo 4.26 ERA/3.57 SIERA/3.36 xERA

Woo has one of the biggest gaps between his xERA and SIERA and his actual ERA among all pitchers, but a deeper dive on his profile suggests it may not be that simple. He has a very low strand rate (61.8), but he's also given up some of the hardest contact of his career. Woo has also been particularly bad on the road, posting a 6.38 ERA and most recently getting hit hard by the Pirates.

Find out who to target the rest of the way with RotoWire's MLB Rest of Season Projections!

Fallers

Eduardo Rodriguez - 2.27 ERA/4.81 SIERA/4.79xERA

Rodriguez is arguably the easiest case to discuss for of this list of players. One year's results aren't necessarily predictive of the next, but Rodriguez has posted an ERA below 4.00 only once in four of his last five full seasons. That's the starting point to being skeptical about Rodriguez, and the actual skills he's displayed don't alleviate any concern. He has struck out a career-low 18.0 percent of batters, with his swinging strike rate dipping to a very poor 7.6 percent.

The one area Rodriguez has improved in is limiting the home run ball, but even those gains don't look to be particularly legitimate. To his credit, his 1.09 GB/FB is his best mark of any recent season, but he has given up 11.8 xHR compared to only actually allowing 10.

There's going to be a rude awakening for Rodriguez; it's just a matter of when.

Justin Wrobleski 2.71 ERA/4.62 SIERA/4.32 xERA and Nick Martinez 2.73 ERA/4.69 SIERA/4.61xERA

The duo of Wrobleski and Martinez have been among the biggest positive surprises among starting pitchers in fantasy, and they are grouped together because they share a lot of other characteristics. Each has been a swingman for large portions of his career, they have low strikeout rates but also avoid mistakes, and they pitch for smart organizations.

Posting 15.4 and 15.1 percent strikeout rates will catch up to any pitcher, but the latter two points offer reason to believe that they can continue to be useful for fantasy purposes. As for Martinez, he has done a great job of limiting mistakes. He's had excellent control throughout his career, and that's the case once again. Martinez has also limited hard contact very effectively. The concern would simply be that the amount of contact he allows will eventually catch up to him.

Wrobleski's case is similar but less compelling. He shares well above-average control, but both his barrel rate allowed and hard contact rate allowed are below average. The Dodgers are a smart organization and also measure out as among the best defenses in the league by outs above average, so the hope for Wrobleski is that combination continues to work for him.