NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

Filling in for Jan Levine this week to take a look at potential National League pickups. As always, this article has two goals: 

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.

2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

Bids in general are best guesstimates. With so much uncertainty at least initially, those values may be even greater estimates than usual. The FAAB chart below lets users easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The chart, which is sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This is a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. An "A" grade is reserved for a high-impact prospect stepping into an everyday role.

If you have questions on players, I'm happy to provide my thoughts in the comments.

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STARTING PITCHER

Mitch Keller, Pirates: Has there ever been a year in which Keller wasn't at least somewhat interesting in March and April? It's understandable if you're sick of him at this point, but last year's 3.91 ERA represented progress, and the early returns this year are promising as well. Through two starts (at Cincinnati and at Boston) he owns a 3.86 ERA, though it's his 30.6 percent strikeout rate which catches the eye. If the increased strikeouts stick, he could be in for his best year yet. 12-team Mixed: $3, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $12

Anthony DeSclafani, Giants: DeSclafani is far from exciting, but in a lot of situations you could do much worse than getting a capable veteran in a good pitchers' park. The 32-year-old righty stumbled to a 6.63 ERA in five starts last season, but that can likely be chalked up to the ankle injury which wound up requiring season-ending surgery. If his first start of this year is any indication, he's back on track, as he tossed six shutout innings against the White Sox while allowing just three hits and no walks. The Giants' rotation is crowded at the moment, but it's Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling who have found themselves making a relief appearance this season, not DeSclafani. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team NL: $11

Tylor Megill, Mets: Both Megill and David Peterson got the chance to open the year in the Mets' rotation due to injuries to Jose Quintana (ribs) and Justin Verlander (shoulder). Verlander believes he'll be back in action by the end of April, which would bump one of Megill or Peterson from the rotation (unless someone else gets hurt first). Through their first two turns in the rotation, Megill has significantly outpitched Peterson in both ERA (1.64 to 6.00), WHIP (1.18 to 2.11). Megill recorded a 2.33 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his first six starts last year before running into injury troubles, so his hot start this year is not without precedent. (I'd also pick up Peterson if he's out there, but he was the more popular target heading into the season and is less likely to be available in addition to being less interesting.) 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $9

Braxton Garrett, Marlins: Garrett lost the battle for the Marlins' fifth starter job to Edward Cabrera and wound up opening the year in long relief and getting optioned after his first appearance. He's back in the majors following Johnny Cueto's biceps injury and could get the chance to stick around if he pitches well, especially with Cabrera walking 13 batters across his first two starts. With a strong outing Sunday against the Mets (which may have finished by the time you're reading this, Garrett could see his FAAB price spike, as he was really quite good last season, riding a 24.1 percent strikeout rate and 6.4 percent walk rate to a 3.58 ERA. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $9

Bryce Elder/Dylan Dodd, Braves: Jared Shuster was the first of Atlanta's young arms to get a chance at a spot in Atlanta's injury-stricken rotation, but after allowing eight runs in 8.1 innings with a 5:9 K:BB, it's Elder and Dodd who now seem better positioned. Elder cruised to a 3.17 ERA in 10 outings (nine starts) as a rookie last season, though that came with mediocre peripherals and a 4.34 SIERA. He shut out the Cardinals over six innings while allowing just two hits in his season debut. Dodd pitched primarily at High-A and Double-A last year but made his MLB debut Tuesday against the same Cardinals, where he gave up one run in six frames. His outing Sunday against the Padres will happen between writing and most FAAB deadlines, so his outlook could change by the time you're placing bids. Elder - 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team NL: $6; Dodd - 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $4

Wade Miley, Brewers: Miley is a 36-year-old with a fastball that averages less than 90 mph, so his appeal is limited outside of deeper leagues where innings are at a premium. That lack of heat leads to a lack of whiffs, but while he's struck out just 18.0 percent of opposing batters over the last five seasons, he recorded a 3.50 ERA over that stretch. His season debut was a more extreme version of the same story, as he struck out just three Mets in six innings but did not allow a run. He'll make a pair of away starts against the Diamondbacks and Padres this week. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $3

Trevor Williams, Nationals: Williams is at best a boring innings-eater, but sometimes you need someone from that category in very deep leagues. His 3.21 ERA for the Mets last season was solid, but only nine of his 30 appearances were starts, and his career ERA sits a 4.27. The early returns so far this year suggest that he should be playable enough most of the time. He opened the year allowing three earned runs in five innings against the Rays, which wasn't particularly good, but he followed that up by escaping Coors Field with just two runs in 5.1 frames. Most encouragingly, he's walked just one of the 43 batters he's faced, which suggests he'll limit the damage on most occasions. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $3

Matt Strahm, Phillies: The Phillies almost certainly didn't plan for Strahm being a starter this season, and definitely not this early, but injuries made him a member of their Opening Day rotation. He was only built up enough to face 14 batters in his season debut, but he shut down the Yankees across four frames, striking out three while allowing one walk and one hit. He tentatively lines up for a two-start week, hosting the Marlins on Monday before heading to Cincinnati on Saturday. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $2

RELIEF PITCHER

Michael Fulmer, Cubs: Fulmer and Brad Boxberger entered the year as the favorites to close at Wrigley Field, and while neither has allowed a run thus far in 5.2 combined innings, it's Fulmer who's earned his team's lone save, tossing a pair of scoreless innings against the Rangers on Friday. He also got the ninth inning on Opening Day with a four-run lead and a day off the next day, a situation which many teams use their closer. The fact that Fulmer's lone actual save saw him enter in the eighth inning suggests he might not be used as a traditional closer, but he's still the best bet to lead the Cubs in saves. 12-team Mixed: $4, 15-team Mixed: $8; 12-team NL: $13

A.J. Puk, Marlins: The Marlins said before the season that they planned to use a closer committee, and nothing has necessarily changed since then, but it's Puk who has the team's lone save so far. Granted, he gave up a solo homer to Pete Alonso while earning that save and also gave up a run in his next appearance, so we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, but it's good to see the most interesting reliever in Miami get the first chance. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11

Pierce Johnson, Rockies: Daniel Bard hit the injured list with anxiety at the start of the season, and Johnson has quickly solidified himself as the Rockies' replacement closer. Colorado's closer job is the least appealing one in the league, and Bard could theoretically return at any point, as he's with the team and throwing and isn't dealing with any physical ailment. Still, Johnson is a perfectly capable reliever, recording a 3.38 ERA and a 32.9 percent strikeout rate since returning stateside following a stint in Japan in 2019, and he's already picked up a pair of saves. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11

Drey Jameson, Diamondbacks: I'm not sure what Jameson's season will wind up looking like, but I'm pretty sure he'll have a decent amount of value. As the sixth starter on a team that employs Madison Bumgarner and Zach Davies, there's every chance he's needed in the rotation sooner rather than later. But it's in the bullpen where he's had success so far, picking up two wins and a save in his three appearances. That save was of the two-inning variety, and given that he's averaged 2.8 innings per appearance thus far, I'm unconvinced that he'll earn serious consideration as a traditional closer anytime soon, but he could continue picking up the odd save for as long as he remains a reliever. The catch here is that he's walked five batters and given up a pair of homers despite his 2.16 ERA, so it's too early to go overboard. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team NL: $6

Scott McGough/Andrew Chafin, Diamondbacks: McGough was an interesting sleeper early in draft season after spending several successful seasons in Japan, but he spiked to an ADP of 301 in the NFBC Main Event as the hype picked up. Early returns suggest the Diamondbacks did indeed want him to claim the closer role, as he's been given opportunities and did manage one save, but he's also blown one while giving up three homers in 2.1 innings. Chafin has a save of his own and has thrown 3.1 scoreless innings, but the fact that he throws left-handed could limit his opportunities if the team sticks with a strict committee. Speculative bids on Kevin Ginkel and Miguel Castro are also justified in deeper leagues. McGough - 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $3; Chafin - 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team NL: $5

Carl Edwards/Hunter Harvey, Nationals: Kyle Finnegan entered the year as the Nationals' closer, but he's already allowed eight runs in 4.1 innings with a 2:4 K:BB. Given that Washington already suggested some openness to a more fluid bullpen, it wouldn't be a surprise to see these two start to pick up saves. Edwards earned one against the Rockies on Saturday, though it came with three hits and an earned run. His three strikeouts in four innings this year are hardly closer material, and he had a strikeout rate of just 21.9 percent last year. Harvey is the more interesting option given his past as a highly-touted but always injured prospect. He's only allowed one run in four frames this year but has only struck out one batter. Edwards - 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $3; Harvey - 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $3

Catcher

Francisco Alvarez, Mets: Alvarez was sent down prior to Opening Day to work on his defense, a rare case where that's actually a believable excuse given that he's a 21-year-old catcher who's bat is ahead of his glove. With Omar Narvaez out roughly two months with a calf strain, however, that defensive project will have to wait. Alvarez was called up Friday but didn't appear in either of the first two games of the weekend series against the Marlins, suggesting that the Mets currently view Tomas Nido as the better overall option thanks to his much stronger defense. The early lack of playing time tempers my excitement for Alvarez slightly, but we're still talking about a catcher who tore through the minors while slashing .273/.384/.529. 12-team Mixed: $5, 15-team Mixed: $13; 12-team NL: $21 (Note: these bids assume a two-catcher format. I would look elsewhere in 12-team one-catcher leagues and wouldn't bid more than a buck or two in 15-team, one-catcher formats.)

Tomas Nido, Mets: As mentioned above, it's actually been Nido, not Alvarez, who's been the primary beneficiary of Narvaez's injury thus far. Alvarez should earn a larger role soon, but for now, Nido is the starting catcher for a good team. That has value in deep leagues, but his career .218/.254/.318 slash line means his impact will likely be small even there. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $2

First Base

Garrett Cooper, Marlins: Cooper typically posts numbers befitting a compiler but doesn't play often enough to earn that label, making him largely uninteresting for fantasy purposes. While health issues could eventually surface and lead to a similar result this season, playing time doesn't seem to be a concern for now, as he's started all but one game so far. Don't expect him to maintain his .310/.355/.586 line for long, but a repeat of his career .275/.348/.444 line would be more than satisfactory for an everyday player in deeper formats. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $9

Second Base

Nolan Gorman, Cardinals: Gorman was something of a forgotten man in St. Louis this winter due to the hype deservedly directed at players like Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar, but early results suggests he may be an excellent sleeper. He's started against every righty the Cardinals have faced thus far, and while Nootbaar's return from a thumb injury will add more competition to an already packed lineup, Gorman has hit well enough to keep his place, slashing .350/.480/.700 with a pair of homers through six games. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $9

Orlando Arcia, Braves: What if Arcia is an entirely competent MLB regular? He hit .242/.293/.363 across his first six big-league seasons, but those were his age-21 through age-26 campaigns. He may have simply debuted far before he was truly ready, as his .250/.317/.430 slash line (good for a 106 wRC+) across the last two seasons suggests. Toss in his solid glove, and it's perhaps easier to see why Atlantas chose him over Vaughn Grissom. His everyday role at shortstop means he'll add eligibility there soon if he hasn't already. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team NL: $6

Third Base

Brian Anderson, Brewers: Anderson posted below-average batting lines in both 2021 and 2022 while battling injuries that limited him to a combined 165 games. His move to Milwaukee has seemingly given him a new lease on life. His initial role wasn't entirely clear, but he's stepped into an everyday job after Luis Urias's hamstring injury, splitting time between third base and right field. He won't maintain his .500 BABIP nor his 1.349 OPS for long, but he should get back to being the above-average regular he was early in his career as long as he stays healthy. 12-team Mixed: $4, 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team NL: $16

Spencer Steer, Reds: Steer had some sleeper buzz over the winter, and his early results back that up. He's hitting .250/.357/.583 with a pair of homers and a 4:5 K:BB, but just as importantly, he's stared every single game at third base. If he holds onto that everyday role at one of the leagues' best hitters' parks, he won't even have to fully live up to his potential to be a useful fantasy asset. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team NL: $10

Shortstop

Brice Turang, Brewers: Turang was an interesting sleeper during draft season, but it already looks as though he may have been underrated. He's only started against righties thus far, but he's hit .316 with a homer and a pair of steals through 23 plate appearances. Impressively for a rookie, he's also walked four times while striking out just three times. Plate discipline and speed were his calling cards as a prospect, and Luis Urias' hamstring injury should keep his playing time safe for a while. 12-team Mixed: $4, 15-team Mixed: $9; 12-team NL: $14

Bryson Stott, Phillies: Stott's spot here isn't due to his .419/.438/.516 slash line, as that's come with a .520 BABIP and a .255 xBA. Instead, he earns a spot because he's now a true everyday player thanks to injuries to Rhys Hoskins (knee) and Darick Hall (thumb), as the players who could have taken over for him against lefties are now needed elsewhere. The at-bats against same-sided pitching will likely hurt Stott's batting average while helping his counting stats. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team NL: $9

Outfield

Joey Wiemer, Brewers: I've already mentioned Luis Urias's hamstring injury twice this article, but it's been Wiemer who's benefitting the most, starting seven straight games after earning his first call-up as Urias' replacement. His early performances have been strong, as he's hitting .333 with a homer and a steal. Perhaps most notably, he's struck out just 11.1 percent of the time after recording a 24.7 percent strikeout rate in the minors. Continued contact will be key for him if he's to emerge as a star rather than merely an interesting player, as his power and speed aren't in doubt. 12-team Mixed: $3, 15-team Mixed: $6; 12-team NL: $11

Jorge Soler, Marlins: Soler's results have declined since he hit 48 home runs with the Royals in 2019, but he's shown improvement early in his second season with the Marlins despite hitting just .206 over the first six games of the year. The 31-year-old has homered three times this season while posting six RBI and four runs. Soler's ratios remain a concern, but he has the potential to contribute in counting stats if he can maintain his power. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $9

Ji Hwan Bae, Pirates: The Pirates have several young players who are somewhat interesting but not much more than that, which means that whoever makes the most of their opportunities has the chance to carve out a significant role. So far, that's been Bae, who's started seven of the team's first eight games. His .259/.286/.444 slash line isn't anything special, but he's homered once and stolen a pair of bases while accumulating five runs and three RBI. Despite hitting near the bottom of the Pirates' lineup, Bae has the potential to provide fantasy value through counting stats despite his lackluster ratios. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team NL: $5

Alec Burleson, Cardinals: Burleson has been in the strong side of a platoon in left field over the first week and a half of 2023 with Lars Nootbaar on the injured list with a thumb injury. Burleson has filled in nicely, slashing .316/.350/.579 with a homer, three runs and two RBI. While his counting stats haven't jumped off the page, he has a spot near the top of the Cardinals' lineup and could provide some early-season help for fantasy managers looking to improve ratios. However, it's possible his playing time decreases once Nootbaar is back in action, which could happen as early as this week. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $4

James Outman, Dodgers: Outman was viewed as an appealing sleeper candidate in fantasy drafts ahead of the 2023 season, and he's delivered on expectations over the last week and a half. He's reached base safely in each of his eight starts this season and has slashed .348/.516/.913 with three home runs, two triples, nine RBI, seven runs and a stolen base. While it's possible the 25-year-old experiences some growing pains at points during his first full season in the majors, Outman is proving that he can be a well-rounded fantasy contributor if he's able to maintain consistent playing time. 12-team Mixed: $5, 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team NL: $16

Trayce Thompson, Dodgers: While Thompson has struggled to find time in the lineup early in the 2023 season, he had a dominant performance April 1 in which he homered three times while driving in eight runs. The 32-year-old has gone 0-for-10 with two walks and five strikeouts over five games since then, but his performance against the Diamondbacks last weekend makes him worth a look for fantasy managers in deeper leagues. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $4

Jason Heyward, Dodgers: Like Thompson, Heyward hasn't been an everyday player for the Dodgers early in 2023, and he's started exclusively against right-handed pitchers. However, the 33-year-old has been effective when on the field, going 4-for-13 with three home runs, five RBI and four runs over six games. The veteran struggled mightily during his final two seasons with the Cubs, but he's gotten off to a hot start in 2023 and could earn some more at-bats if he remains somewhat effective at the plate. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $4