Mound Musings Q&A: Overpriced?

There are almost always many more pretenders than pitchers likely to help your fantasy team, but it can be a challenge to sort them out. Therefore, I'm writing about a few guys who have become somewhat popular adds to fantasy rosters, but whom I am avoiding, at least for now, pending a larger sample size that suggest the better numbers are real. Okay. Mark me skeptical.

I'm staying away from these pitchers:

Gavin Williams (Indians) – Looking at his base numbers, you would think this is a solid arm, but numbers (2.12 ERA and 1.01 WHIP) can be deceiving. In five starts, Williams has issued 17 walks over 29 innings. That is horrible. True, he has allowed just 13 hits over those innings, but there is quite a bit of luck involved in that. If you look closely, you can see the fuse burning. The good news is he will end up on the roster of one of your opponents. To my eye, Williams is a bomb waiting to explode. Take cover.

Parker Messick (Indians) – I might as well continue with one of the highest-ranked pitchers in the game right now. I'll preface this by saying I am not necessarily predicting a complete collapse by Messick, but rather a return to normalcy. He currently boasts a microscopic 1.05 ERA, and despite decent stuff with good command, I don't see that continuing for the entire season. Yes, command is his strong suit now, but his minor-league stats suggest something else. He always looks more hittable than his results suggest – probably due to some deception in his motion – and he pitches in front of a weak defensive team. My opinion: Now might be a good time to find a trade partner.

Sandy Alcantara (Marlins) – Now that all the Indians fans hate me, let's look at a couple more volatile arms. Alcantara may take a more significant dip in performance. Most analysts (including me) are calling him one of the biggest surprises of the season so far. His WHIP of 1.05 and flashy ERA of 3.06 even after he got shelled in recent starts, have him leading a talented Marlins staff. I think we'll see his BABIP drift higher and, as the weather gets warmer, the batted balls could start traveling further. His velocity is down slightly, and while he does get pretty good movement on his pitches, his command of the zone can be spotty. I just think there are too many red flags to deal with, and I am going to steer clear of him. Maybe he's found some new magic?

Jose Soriano (Angels) – The 27-year-old Soriano has come out of nowhere this year – and I'm pretty convinced he could return there as the season progresses. Before this year he had spent time across parts of three MLB seasons split between the bullpen and, more recently, starting. In those innings he posted a decent 3.56 ERA with a soft 1.27 WHIP. Not surprisingly, his results were better out of the pen where hitters saw him less. This season, he is 5-0, buoyed by an unsustainable .158 BABIP. His ERA is – are you ready for this – 0.28. He has allowed just one run – a solo home run. His velocity has been on a gradual decline, his pitches feature just average movement (at best), and the signs point to a regression relatively soon. I don't see him being horrible, but, realistically, he'll come back to Earth. If I owned him, I would slip him into the trade bait list.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Astros need a shot in the arm, and Spencer Arrighetti was on a roll at Triple-A Sugar Land so they called him up. He struck out 10 in a successful start. He's got top-of-the-rotation stuff when he throws it for strikes, but therein lies the rub. He missed most of 2025 with a thumb injury, which adds to the challenge.
• I've been a Walker Buehler fan for quite a while, but he's been pretty erratic so far in 2026. He allowed seven runs over seven innings in his first two starts but has turned it around, allowing just two runs in his last two outings (11 innings). I think the most recent version is closer to what we would hope to look for.
• The Mariners' Bryan Woo has looked very sharp in his first couple years in the Seattle rotation. He has kept his ERA around 3.00, while his WHIP is even more impressive, generally staying below 1.00. His strikeout rate (just over seven per nine innings) could be a bit better, and I would like to see the ball stay in the yard more often, but he's on most of my fantasy teams, and I'm happy about that.
• Kodai Senga can be overwhelming when he's on his game, but the Cubs pummeled him (seven runs in just over three innings) last time out. This might be enough to get him cut by teams (0-3, 8.83 ERA), and if so, I am all over him. I just can't get that amazing fork ball out of my head. He'll be back.
• Arizona's Michael Soroka is showing off his best stuff these days. He improved his record to 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this past weekend. He has allowed just 24 baserunners in 23 innings while logging 28 strikeouts. The punch-outs are a surprise. He has never averaged a strikeout per inning.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Angels bullpen has struggled in the early going with Jordan Romano already blowing a couple saves. This may open the door for Kirby Yates who just went out on a rehab assignment (knee). Andres Munoz has struggled to finish games for Seattle. Things could get muddled here, as Matt Brash is quietly waiting in the wings. And, please note, when the Padre's Mason Miller locates, just sing along, "U can't touch this." Tampa Bay's Edwin Uceta is trying to get a look as their closer, but his balky shoulder is not cooperating. He suffered yet another setback in a rehab assignment late last week. Paul Sewald has turned into a saves machine in Arizona. It's okay, I'm not sure there is a superior option on the team. Sometimes I think the D-Backs favor either A.J. Puk or Kevin Ginkel, but I'm not certain they are the answer even if the need would stretch out. 
The Giants are shuffling the cards in search of a reliable closer. Ryan Walker was the early-season favorite and he does have a save, but three different relievers have one. I still see Walker as a clear choice to get most of the ninth-inning work. The primary closer in Milwaukee I think is Trevor Megill, but Abner Uribe is establishing himself as the key setup guy and first option on days Megill is not available. Toronto closer Jeff Hoffman continues to get battered, but I see no clear alternative. Look for a committee soon if he doesn't get it together. The Dodgers' Edwin Diaz is struggling with a sore elbow. His velocity is down, and so is his effectiveness. The timetable for his return isn't until July, so watch for Alex Vesia and Tanner Scott to fill in.

Regular readers know my addiction to high upside young arms. I want that surprise ace SOOO bad LOL. Next week, we'll look at some young pitchers who may be tossing hints that they could be the guy to have on your fantasy roster.

Find out which projected starters are going and when with RotoWire's Probable Pitchers page!