Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything

Over the past few years, Life, the Universe and Everything, has gradually become a semi-regular part of Mound Musings. As we all try to answer the ultimate question, I'll occasionally dedicate this space to elaborating on questions from you, the readers, as well as take the opportunity to make brief comments about current events. If you have a pitching question, fire away, that's what we're here for.

Do you feel it? It's just a gentle breeze right now, nothing very drastic, not today, anyway. However, that breeze is likely to turn into full blown trade winds soon. The trading deadline is at the end of the month, and there are plenty of teams looking for pitching. In fact, there are probably teams already working the phones to see if help is available now. It's the teams that will be dealing away pitching that we don't know yet. With the new, expanded playoff format (something I like a lot) more teams still have a shot at a postseason berth, which means quite a few teams need to decide whether they are sellers or buyers. Right now, they are understandably walking the fence. Still, there are a few pitchers of value on teams with no hope of playing games in October.

Two stand out. Oakland's Frankie Montas and Cincinnati's Luis Castillo have been prominently mentioned as trade candidates since the season began. There's no reason to think differently now. The exception might be Montas who left his last start after an inning with shoulder stiffness. He is listed as day-to-day, but in all honesty, I never use "shoulder" and "day-to-day" in the same sentence. All eyes will be on his health status.

So, let's look at Castillo. I actually see him as the more interesting trade piece. There are a few factors that make him an intriguing target. First, he has both a very live arm, and one of the best change-ups in the game. If it all clicks, that's a potentially devastating combo. Next, and not to be overlooked, almost anywhere he lands is going to be with a better team, and quite probably in a more pitcher-friendly home park. I have the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Cardinals and Red Sox at the top of the list as possible suitors, but I need to add my various fantasy teams to that list.

Those are just a couple candidates. There are more. Could the wily playoff specialist Madison Bumgarner, possibly find his way back to San Francisco? Maybe the Pirates' Jose Quintana? He's been on a bit of a roll.  Marcus Stroman is nearing a return. If he proves healthy, he could help a team down the stretch. As always, trading season makes for entertaining speculation.

What is the same, and what is different: A wise person once said, "The definition of crazy is doing the same thing you have always done and expecting different results." It makes a lot of sense when you think about it. It holds very true for pitching in MLB.

As I have said many times, the constantly evolving advanced metrics are incredibly helpful in evaluating pitchers, BUT they only take you so far. I look at them every day. However, I understand that their usefulness is historical and not always predictive. If the pitcher you are evaluating continues to do what he has always done, it's logical to expect very similar results. But, what if he changes his pitch sequencing? What if he introduces a new pitch into his repertoire? What if cleaner, more efficient mechanics adds velocity to his fastball and/or increases the likelihood he will throw a first pitch strike? What if his mound presence changes as he becomes more confident? Any of those things (and many more) can have a huge impact on future results.

That's what Mound Musings is all about. I always encourage everyone to check out the advanced metrics, but also look to see what's the same and what's different. If you don't always have the time or aren't really sure, stop by here and maybe we can evaluate that target pitcher together.

New blood can provide a spark: With so many young prospects popping up on MLB rosters, there are bound to be changes in overall team performance. Most notably, the weaker teams – teams you might target as good matchups for your starting pitchers – can sometimes catch a little fire when a top prospect or two add some spice to the lineup. Sometimes the upswing is fairly sudden, an example being the Pirates after the highly motivational Oneil Cruz showed up. In other cases, it can be more gradual. The Orioles are quietly becoming more competitive (and dangerous) as young players like Austin Hays, Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle mature. Just be aware that your target opposition can vary at different points in the season.

And, note that the reverse can also happen. Teams like Washington could trade away guys like Nelson Cruz and Josh Bell, eliminating what little protection they provide their biggest threat, Juan Soto. Soto rarely sees pitches in the strike zone now, and it could get worse. The most dangerous player on the Reds this season has been veteran journeyman, utility player, Brandon Drury. Chances are he (and anyone else of value) will be changing uniforms soon. In these cases, the weak only get weaker.

What is the Justin Verlander Effect? Okay, this could just as easily be called the Adam Wainwright Effect or the Clayton Kershaw Effect. I named it after Verlander because I've been watching him for 17 years, and I still seem to catch at least an inning or two every time he pitches. I can't help myself. It's like watching Michelangelo paint the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel or Antonio Stradivari construct the perfect violin.

It's hard to measure the impact a veteran, future Hall-of-Famer like Verlander might have on the younger pitchers on the staff, but I assure you, it's there. Take a look at Cristian Javier. He has crazy spin rate, and his pitches really move. Verlander still has a bit higher velocity, but Javier's is on the rise. And, I see cleaner mechanics, less physical effort and a more consistent release point – all Verlander trademarks.

Is Javier destined to enjoy a career like Verlander? It would be pretty optimistic to make that prediction, but I won't call it impossible. Does he talk pitching with Verlander? I don't know, but I'm guessing they do. Does Javier watch him pitch on game days and even during bullpen sessions? I'd bet on it. My point is, watch young pitchers who appear to be making significant strides in their development while pitching on a staff that includes someone who goes above and beyond the everyday pitching performance.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I continue to see some things I like in the Royals' Brad Keller, but other things still concern me. Last year, Kansas City was the worst at throwing first pitch strikes, and they are there again this season. Consistently pitching behind in the count is one of my most glaring red flags. Until that changes I'm staying away.
• Cincinnati's Hunter Greene continues to tease. His stuff is still electric, and his control has improved, but there is a difference between control and command. He doesn't walk as many, but his fastball can still be too straight, and he often fails to locate it well, leaving too many pitches in the middle of the plate.
• After his impressive start against Tampa Bay, I was anxious to see if Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi had found his release point. If he had, he lost it again. Against the A's he walked five and hit a couple batters while recording just seven outs. He is struggling badly right now and probably should be stashed for a while.
• He ran out of gas in the fifth inning making his first start against a quality Mets team after missing time with a back injury, but Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo flashed the stuff that earned him a spot on my kid's list. He'll continue to build up, but I think he's worth pursuing, especially if you're in the market for strikeouts.
• The Tigers' Eduardo Rodriguez missed time with a rib cage strain and was then placed on the restricted list to tend to a personal matter, but the team reports he has not been in contact since (almost a month now). An intriguing development, but it doesn't bode well for any foreseeable fantasy contribution.

Endgame Odyssey:

It has been a week of returns for high-profile relief pitchers. The Yankees' Aroldis Chapman has struggled with command. Look for Clay Holmes to continue in the ninth-inning role at least until Chapman gets his house in order and quite possibly beyond. Liam Hendriks returned for the White Sox and struck out all three batters he faced in dominant fashion. He should be the endgamer of choice right now. In Atlanta, closer Kenley Jansen, who has missed time after suffering an irregular heartbeat, isn't back yet, but the Braves are optimistic he will return when first eligible on July 12. That said, the Twins announced Emilio Pagan would no longer be closing, which should clear the way for Jhoan Duran to solidify his hold on the gig. I don't think lefty Tanner Scott is out as the closer in Miami, but Dylan Floro has collected a couple saves recently and may be working his way into a ninth-inning timeshare.