Sean Newcomb

Newcomb was demoted to Triple-A after three bad starts to begin 2019. He moved to the bullpen upon his return in May and enjoyed quite a bit of success in relief, but any speculative closer appeal he had evaporated when team traded for several established bullpen arms at the trade deadline. As a reliever, Newcomb had a 25.6 K% and an 8.5 BB% -- much more palatable than his 14.3 BB% mark as a starter -- while holding opponents to a .215 average. His fastball played up and Newcomb's groundball rate increased to 50% in relief. Command was always a big concern with Newcomb, and at this point it seems like the bullpen is the best place for his strengths to play up while his deficiencies are mitigated, although the Braves are saying he will be stretched out again this spring. His top competition for the fifth starter's spot will be Kyle Wright, who is the better late-round target for fantasy.

Newcomb made 30 starts and one relief appearance for the Braves in 2018, more or less matching his peripheral numbers from his 19-start rookie campaign while lowering his ERA to 3.90. His underlying numbers were fine for a back-end starter, as he combined a roughly average 23.0% strikeout rate with a high 11.6% walk rate. He did fall off a bit at the end of the year, allowing at least five runs in four of his final eight starts, leading to a late skipped start and casting his postseason role into doubt (though he did go on to make a start in the NLDS). That late-season loss of faith brings into question Newcomb's stability in the rotation. The Braves still have a large stable of pitching prospects, and the lefty could be one of the first to make way should one of them break out or if the Braves deal from that prospect depth for established starters. He'd still have a roster spot in the bullpen.

Newcomb was called up from Triple-A Gwinnett on June 10 and stuck in the Braves' rotation the rest of the season, making 19 starts. He earned his promotion with a 2.97 ERA and 74 whiffs in 57.2 innings on the farm. After his first four major-league starts, he was sporting a sparkling 1.48 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Then, the honeymoon ended as he tallied a 5.23 ERA and 1.73 WHIP the rest of the way. Newcomb is "one skill away," as he misses plenty of bats while limiting homers. His shortcoming is control -- Newcomb has a double-digit walk percentage for his pro career. An 11.1 percent swinging-strike rate in his rookie campaign is promising, though a low 59 percent first-pitch strike mark tempers punchout potential. The Braves have accumulated a bevy of high-end pitching prospects, but most of them are not quite ready to push Newcomb for a rotation spot. He will have another season to try to throw more strikes, but if he doesn't make strides in that department, he could be pushed to the bullpen in 2019 or 2020.

Newcomb walked 71 Southern League hitters in 140 innings. To put that in perspective, only 16 MLB pitchers walked that many hitters in 2016, and only two of them (Ubaldo Jimenez and Francisco Liriano) failed to top 170 innings. Sure, Newcomb is not a finished product, but this is the second offseason in a row where "control issues" needed to be a part of the first sentence of his outlook. Nobody doubts the big lefty's stuff -- a mid-90s fastball and hammer curveball stand out in his repertoire. However, with each passing year, the notion that he may be better suited for relief gains more credence. He will turn 24 in June, so this seems like a potential make-or-break year for him to improve his control to the point that he would be more valuable to Atlanta taking the ball every fifth day, rather than embarrassing hitters in high-leverage spots out of the bullpen.

Newcomb convincingly demonstrated last season that he is one of the premier bat-missers in the minor leagues. The 6-foot-5, 240-pound southpaw fanned 168 over 136 innings across three levels, and posted K rates above 30 percent at Low-A and High-A before finishing the season at Double-A. Hitters in the lower levels were clearly no match for Newcomb, as he put up video game numbers before getting a truer test in the Texas League. He still put up a sterling 2.75 ERA In seven starts (36 innings) at Double-A Arkansas, but his 39:24 K:BB is a bit concerning. He headlined the package Atlanta received from the Angels for Andrelton Simmons during the offseason, but that trade does not noticeably affect his stock in dynasty leagues. There’s no denying Newcomb’s repertoire, with an easy plus fastball and a slider and changeup that can both flash plus. However, his control is fringe average at best, which adds a significant amount of risk to the profile.

A first-round pick by the Angels in the 2014 draft, Newcomb has begun a quick ascension through the minor leagues, as he threw just three innings in rookie ball before being promoted to Low-A Burlington. While he did not perform well overall in his first taste of professional baseball, he did feature impressive punchout rates, tallying 18 strikeouts in 14.2 innings in time split between the two levels. Newcomb is considered a high-ceiling prospect, as he has a repertoire that consists of four pitches, including a mid-90s fastball and a curveball, which could develop into a plus offering. The 21-year-old has had some control issues, and will likely benefit from a tweak to his mechanics, but was able to lower his walk rate from 4.6 BB/9 in 2013 to 3.7 BB/9 during his final season at the University of Hartford.