Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the AL East

Over the past four weeks, we have checked in on the spring happenings around each division. This fifth segment features a look at the American League East. Hopefully you've had a chance to weigh the pros and cons of the majority of arms competing for rotation spots, and you are prepared to field a value-laden pitching staff when baseball kicks off for the 2023 season. We're in deep stretch, so let's look at the:

American League East

Baltimore Orioles – The O's simply don't have the horses to compete in the rough and tumble AL East, at least not quite yet. Their "ace" heading into 2023, lefty John Means, isn't expected back until midseason as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. I'm not sure who to label their interim No. 1 or No. 2. I suppose it would be between newcomer Kyle Gibson and lefty Cole Irvin. Irvin might have a little upside, but he's really a mid-rotation arm at best, while Gibson will likely offer more leadership to their young arms than significant innings. He might make his greatest contribution as something of an assistant pitching coach, helping groom these young kids. Right at the top of that kid list is Grayson Rodriguez. He's the true No. 1 – or at least I think he will be. The rest of the rotation will likely be filled with young arms hoping to establish themselves. Dean Kremer has displayed some competence and looks like a serviceable starting pitcher while Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and perhaps Austin Voth will compete for the last spot or two. They also have Spenser Watkins and rookie DL Hall as options, but I don't see Watkins as much help, and Hall probably isn't ready.

With that rotation, the bullpen figures to get a LOT of work, and I suppose that is a slight positive. They won't lose 162 games, so there could be an occasional save chance. Felix Bautista will see the lion's share of chances, assuming his shoulder cooperates. He made quite a splash last season. Dillon Tate appears reasonably useful, but he won't be ready for Opening Day as he rehabs a flexor strain. At least until early June, it looks like Cionel Perez who also flashed some potential is likely to see some late-inning work. Southpaw Keegan Akin, along with righties Bryan Baker and Mychal Givens round out a fairly competent bullpen.

Recapping the Orioles:

The arm to roster: Maybe Rodriguez, as at least there is huge upside there.

He'll likely be overpriced: Gibson helps the O's more than a fantasy squad.

Best of the bullpen: Bautista is the real deal if he can get and stay healthy.

Boston Red Sox – The Red Sox season in 2022 can be summed up in one word – disaster. First and foremost, Chris Sale missed almost the entire year recuperating from various injuries. Prior to a rib cage injury, a broken finger and a wrist injury, there were very few pitchers I would have preferred to own. I have loved the guy since he arrived in the majors. He reportedly will be ready for Opening Day. Yes, there is likely to be rust, but just having him on the hill again will definitely help the optimism. James Paxton suffered a lat strain just after completing his Tommy John rehab, and therefore missed all of last season. Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill and Michael Wacha – all gone now – suffered an assortment of injuries that limited their innings. Only Nick Pivetta came close to a full season, and he was inconsistent. Still, he looks good at times, then loses command. I see him being a contributor but only sometimes. The veterans will likely be joined by a couple arms with some potential. The best of the bunch is Brayan Bello who may be joined by Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck, but the biggest addition is veteran righty Corey Kluber. Kluber, primarily because of age and injuries, has seen his stock drop over the past couple seasons, but if he has a season left, he could be a major force. This staff is a roll of the dice. Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya?

In many ways, the bullpen was more disastrous than the rotation in 2022. Okay, not just 2022, the bullpen has been awful for years. Now they have a real closer, albeit a 35-year-old genuine closer. Kenley Jansen has remade himself the past couple years, and he continues to pile up saves. Age will eventually run him down, but I don't think it's this year. His presence allows their other bullpen arms to fill more suitable roles. I would probably list Chris Martin, another graybeard, and John Schreiber as the top set-up guys (and the insurance policies for Jansen). They'll be joined by Joely Rodriguez and Richard Bleier in attempting to bridge to the ninth inning. Basically, this is a bullpen that could be adequate, but Jansen is the key.

Recapping the Red Sox:

The arm to roster: I have a hunch Sale will return to form and be a staff anchor.

He'll likely be overpriced: I'm not sure what Kluber has left and I hesitate to jump.

Best of the bullpen: Jansen continues his HOF quest and provides instant respectability.

New York Yankees – The Yankees present a pitching staff that could be one of the best in baseball. It all starts with Gerrit Cole. If I had to pick one SP to carry my fantasy team, he could be the guy. He might comfortably provide over 200 innings, and the majority of those will be quality innings with strikeouts galore. The question is, who will take the mound on days Cole does not? Carlos Rodon is easily the next best pitcher in the rotation, but he's hurt. Uh oh. They aren't terribly concerned, but maybe they should be. A former No. 1, Luis Severino is back from Tommy John surgery. They should be able to take the kid gloves off after 102 2022 innings, but his health history isn't the most comforting, so we'll set him aside for now. Another former No. 1, Frankie Montas, should have broken camp as the No. 3 or 4, but shoulder issues have him on the shelf until at least midseason, and you know how shoulder woes go. Nestor Cortes is next up. He's a southpaw with decent upside, and even though he's not top-of-the-rotation, he's better than your typical fifth starter. That's where he would slot in if everyone was healthy. With their current injuries, the Yankees are lucky to have some depth. Both Domingo German and Clarke Schmidt are competent starters, and are expected to begin the year in the rotation. We have noted many times the importance of depth in starting pitching, and that could clearly be even a bigger factor for the Yankees.

The Yankees still have one of the deepest bullpens in baseball even without longtime closer Aroldis Chapman. It seems funny not talking about him for the Yankees' ninth inning. Clay Holmes doesn't have Chapman's resume, but he did a solid job last year and didn't look out of place doing it. I'm comfortable with him. Health is always a concern these days, and early on they will miss a couple of top set-up men in Tommy Kahnle and Lou Trivino. But, depth is fairly plentiful here, too. They have Jonathan Loaisiga (probably Holmes' caddy), and Michael King, Ron Marinaccio and Wandy Peralta, all with some experience pitching higher leverage innings.

Recapping the Yankees:

The arm to roster: Rodon has a high enough ceiling to be worth the injury risk.

He'll likely be overpriced: Severino is capable when healthy, but I think he's fragile.

Best of the bullpen: Holmes pitched well last year and looked legitimate doing it.

Tampa Bay Rays – Some organizations become known for consistently developing young pitchers, and the Rays fall solidly into that category. At first glance, their starting pitching doesn't look all that formidable. But, I hesitate to write any of them off. Tyler Glasnow to me should still be the undisputed leader of the band. He is legitimate, but he is also injury prone. Okay, who isn't. Glasnow hasn't pitched more than 111 innings in any of his seven seasons. So, the rotation will include the heir apparent to Glasnow's leadership role. Southpaw Shane McClanahan is right there with him on talent, and I love his mound presence. Free agent signee Zach Eflin might be next up, but he's a bit of a head-scratcher. He hasn't really impressed me, but the Rays gave him their biggest free agent contract ever. Hmmm. The Rays also have a couple more up-and-comers in Jeffrey Springs and former swingman Drew Rasmussen, who has really made an impression on me as he has progressed. He really spins the ball and gets hitters to chase. With this organization, both deserve plenty of attention on draft day. While Glasnow is out, it's unclear who will step in. Yonny Chirinos is fairly competent I suppose and actually fits nicely into the Rays' sometimes employed "short start and turn it over to the pen" philosophy, but others under consideration for occasional starting assignments include Luis Patino and soft-tosser Josh Fleming, both of whom I prefer over Chirinos. The future is Taj Bradley, but it might be 2024.

The Rays' nontraditional approach to pitching relies heavily on the bullpen, and they generate the best results when they match up their arms with the upcoming hitters, regardless of the inning. My guess is Pete Fairbanks will lead the staff in saves, but don't be surprised if he gets the call in the sixth inning on occasion, and someone else – maybe Jason Adam or Colin Poche or Jalen Beeks, or Andrew Kittredge (when he returns from the injured list) – will be that day's closer. The bullpen is usually pretty effective, but that success comes hand-in-hand with lots of flexibility, and that can often create headaches for fantasy owners.

Recapping the Rays:

The arm to roster: McClanahan is the real deal, but I'm guessing he'll be very pricey.

He'll likely be overpriced: Eflin has to prove to me the Rays made a good buy.

Best of the bullpen: If you take one, I'm a Fairbanks fan, but he may not be everyday.

Toronto Blue Jays – There's a new team on the block in the AL East. Over recent years, New York, Boston and Tampa Bay have been the contenders, but this year Toronto appears to be all in. The Blue Jays have rebuilt their starting rotation over the past couple years, and I think they now have the horses. Certainly, at the top of the list is Kevin Gausman who was signed in the off-season prior to 2022. He was solid last year, albeit with a ridiculously high .363 BABIP, but the wily veteran figures to again be the leader of the staff. And, Gausman isn't alone in the potential ace category. Alek Manoah was nothing short of spectacular in his second season with the Jays. Look for more of the same. A huge key to this season has to be newcomer Chris Bassitt. I'm afraid he is unlikely to match his recent results with the A's and Mets, but he does provide valuable innings. Next on the list is an enigma who really struggled with consistency last year. That has been a problem throughout his career, but I think Jose Berrios should be poised to take the next step. The guy can be so good on any given day. I have always liked Yusei Kikuchi, even when he struggled, but I think he might be getting on track. He has the stuff to climb as high as the three spot. He has looked pretty good this spring. Thomas Hatch and perhaps possible swingman Mitch White should fill the fifth/sixth slots as needed, at least until they hopefully get another solid starter, southpaw Hyun Jin Ryu, back around midseason.

Things appear fairly settled in the Toronto bullpen heading into the season. Look for Jordan Romano to be the guy to pile up saves. They also brought in an excellent set-up guy in Erik Swanson who further strengthens a pretty good pen. And, Chad Green is expected back for the second half. Lefty Tim Mayza along with Yimi Garcia, Adam Cimber, Anthony Bass and Trevor Richards could also jump into the mix depending on the matchups. And, don't forget Nate Pearson, who still has an electric arm and could do some set-up work if he gets everything in sync.

Recapping the Blue Jays:

The arm to roster: Gausman, but I anticipate another big year from Manoah, too.

He'll likely be overpriced: Bassitt gives the Jays innings, but I feel he's iffy in 2023.

Best of the bullpen: Romano will be the guy and he should see lots of chances.

Next week we'll wrap up our preseason staff preview with a look at the NL East.