2026 MLB's Unluckiest Hitters: Statcast Says They Should Be Better

Each MLB season a hitter's batting average tells one story, while tracking technology like Statcast tells another. Exit velocity and launch angle don't lie, but figures might not tell the whole story in a game of inches like baseball.

Right now, a group of hitters is being robbed by bad luck on balls in play, and their possible regression to the mean is worth watching for fans and MLB betting connoisseurs.

Here are the 2026 unluckiest hitters so far, with a explanation below our interactive graphic.

Data Viz

2026 MLB Unluckiest Hitters

Expected vs. Actual — xBA • xSLG • xwOBA — Through April 1, 2026

Players Analyzed

277

Min. 10 BIP

Biggest Gap

−.727

Hayes

Avg Luck Gap

−.495

Top 25 shown

Metrics Used

3

xBA · xSLG · xwOBA

Full RankingsTop 10 UnluckyBA GapSLG GapwOBA Gap

Top 25 hitters ranked by composite luck gap: (xBA−BA) + (xSLG−SLG) + (xwOBA−wOBA), from 277 qualified batters (min. 10 BIP). Click any column to sort.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
1  Hayes, Ke'Bryan	CIN	3B	14	−.199	−.333	−.195	−.727
2  Durbin, Caleb	BOS	3B	15	−.221	−.284	−.207	−.712
3  Freeman, Freddie	LAD	1B	21	−.120	−.379	−.193	−.692
4  Steer, Spencer	CIN	LF	16	−.106	−.338	−.175	−.619
5  Naylor, Josh	SEA	1B	26	−.180	−.262	−.176	−.618
6  Kelly, Carson	CHC	C	14	−.114	−.302	−.141	−.557
7  Herrera, Iván	STL	DH	22	−.135	−.261	−.154	−.550
8  Rengifo, Luis	MIL	3B	15	−.165	−.200	−.145	−.510
9  Bailey, Patrick	SF	C	18	−.142	−.225	−.136	−.503
10  Jung, Josh	TEX	3B	17	−.162	−.184	−.149	−.495
11  Bogaerts, Xander	SD	SS	20	−.136	−.202	−.139	−.477
12  Hernández, Heriberto	MIA	LF	14	−.118	−.235	−.116	−.469
13  Hamilton, David	MIL	3B	13	−.134	−.233	−.102	−.469
14  Sheets, Gavin	SD	1B	14	−.128	−.193	−.135	−.456
15  Bichette, Bo	NYM	3B	24	−.135	−.185	−.125	−.445
16  Caratini, Victor	MIN	1B	12	−.091	−.235	−.116	−.442
17  Castellanos, Nick	SD	DH	13	−.148	−.162	−.122	−.432
18  Jeffers, Ryan	MIN	C	12	−.064	−.250	−.112	−.426
19  Witt Jr., Bobby	KC	SS	16	−.120	−.188	−.116	−.424
20  Acuña, Luisangel	CWS	SS	14	−.120	−.183	−.107	−.410
21  Acuña Jr., Ronald	ATL	RF	22	−.045	−.247	−.114	−.406
22  Clemens, Kody	MIN	1B	10	−.062	−.231	−.105	−.398
23  Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	18	−.093	−.189	−.109	−.391
24  Varsho, Daulton	TOR	CF	20	−.092	−.191	−.108	−.391
25  Ramírez, José	CLE	3B	26	−.106	−.150	−.103	−.359

The 10 hitters whose quality of contact most outpaces their actual results. Red = actual. Gray = expected.

1

CIN 3B

Hayes, Ke'Bryan

BA.083 / .282

SLG.083 / .416

wOBA.166 / .361

Luck gap−.727

2

BOS 3B

Durbin, Caleb

BA.000 / .221

SLG.000 / .284

wOBA.047 / .254

Luck gap−.712

3

LAD 1B

Freeman, Freddie

BA.200 / .320

SLG.250 / .629

wOBA.225 / .418

Luck gap−.692

4

CIN LF

Steer, Spencer

BA.077 / .183

SLG.077 / .415

wOBA.146 / .321

Luck gap−.619

5

SEA 1B

Naylor, Josh

BA.043 / .223

SLG.043 / .305

wOBA.093 / .269

Luck gap−.618

6

CHC C

Kelly, Carson

BA.250 / .364

SLG.250 / .552

wOBA.296 / .437

Luck gap−.557

7

STL DH

Herrera, Iván

BA.158 / .293

SLG.263 / .524

wOBA.200 / .354

Luck gap−.550

8

MIL 3B

Rengifo, Luis

BA.154 / .319

SLG.154 / .354

wOBA.180 / .325

Luck gap−.510

9

SF C

Bailey, Patrick

BA.125 / .267

SLG.125 / .350

wOBA.180 / .316

Luck gap−.503

10

TEX 3B

Jung, Josh

BA.000 / .162

SLG.000 / .184

wOBA.000 / .149

Luck gap−.495

Ranked by batting average luck gap (xBA−BA). These hitters are making solid contact but getting unlucky on balls in play.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
1  Durbin, Caleb	BOS	3B	15	−.221	−.284	−.207	−.712
2  Hayes, Ke'Bryan	CIN	3B	14	−.199	−.333	−.195	−.727
3  Naylor, Josh	SEA	1B	26	−.180	−.262	−.176	−.618
4  Rengifo, Luis	MIL	3B	15	−.165	−.200	−.145	−.510
5  Jung, Josh	TEX	3B	17	−.162	−.184	−.149	−.495
6  Castellanos, Nick	SD	DH	13	−.148	−.162	−.122	−.432
7  Bailey, Patrick	SF	C	18	−.142	−.225	−.136	−.503
8  Bogaerts, Xander	SD	SS	20	−.136	−.202	−.139	−.477
9  Bichette, Bo	NYM	3B	24	−.135	−.185	−.125	−.445
10  Herrera, Iván	STL	DH	22	−.135	−.261	−.154	−.550
11  Hamilton, David	MIL	3B	13	−.134	−.233	−.102	−.469
12  Sheets, Gavin	SD	1B	14	−.128	−.193	−.135	−.456
13  Freeman, Freddie	LAD	1B	21	−.120	−.379	−.193	−.692
14  Witt Jr., Bobby	KC	SS	16	−.120	−.188	−.116	−.424
15  Acuña, Luisangel	CWS	SS	14	−.120	−.183	−.107	−.410
16  Hernández, Heriberto	MIA	LF	14	−.118	−.235	−.116	−.469
17  Kelly, Carson	CHC	C	14	−.114	−.302	−.141	−.557
18  Ramírez, José	CLE	3B	26	−.106	−.150	−.103	−.359
19  Steer, Spencer	CIN	LF	16	−.106	−.338	−.175	−.619
20  Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	18	−.093	−.189	−.109	−.391
21  Varsho, Daulton	TOR	CF	20	−.092	−.191	−.108	−.391
22  Caratini, Victor	MIN	1B	12	−.091	−.235	−.116	−.442
23  Jeffers, Ryan	MIN	C	12	−.064	−.250	−.112	−.426
24  Clemens, Kody	MIN	1B	10	−.062	−.231	−.105	−.398
25  Acuña Jr., Ronald	ATL	RF	22	−.045	−.247	−.114	−.406

Ranked by slugging luck gap (xSLG−SLG). Power hitters whose extra-base hits haven't materialized yet.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
1  Freeman, Freddie	LAD	1B	21	−.120	−.379	−.193	−.692
2  Steer, Spencer	CIN	LF	16	−.106	−.338	−.175	−.619
3  Hayes, Ke'Bryan	CIN	3B	14	−.199	−.333	−.195	−.727
4  Kelly, Carson	CHC	C	14	−.114	−.302	−.141	−.557
5  Durbin, Caleb	BOS	3B	15	−.221	−.284	−.207	−.712
6  Naylor, Josh	SEA	1B	26	−.180	−.262	−.176	−.618
7  Herrera, Iván	STL	DH	22	−.135	−.261	−.154	−.550
8  Jeffers, Ryan	MIN	C	12	−.064	−.250	−.112	−.426
9  Acuña Jr., Ronald	ATL	RF	22	−.045	−.247	−.114	−.406
10  Hernández, Heriberto	MIA	LF	14	−.118	−.235	−.116	−.469
11  Caratini, Victor	MIN	1B	12	−.091	−.235	−.116	−.442
12  Hamilton, David	MIL	3B	13	−.134	−.233	−.102	−.469
13  Clemens, Kody	MIN	1B	10	−.062	−.231	−.105	−.398
14  Bailey, Patrick	SF	C	18	−.142	−.225	−.136	−.503
15  Bogaerts, Xander	SD	SS	20	−.136	−.202	−.139	−.477
16  Rengifo, Luis	MIL	3B	15	−.165	−.200	−.145	−.510
17  Sheets, Gavin	SD	1B	14	−.128	−.193	−.135	−.456
18  Varsho, Daulton	TOR	CF	20	−.092	−.191	−.108	−.391
19  Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	18	−.093	−.189	−.109	−.391
20  Witt Jr., Bobby	KC	SS	16	−.120	−.188	−.116	−.424
21  Bichette, Bo	NYM	3B	24	−.135	−.185	−.125	−.445
22  Jung, Josh	TEX	3B	17	−.162	−.184	−.149	−.495
23  Acuña, Luisangel	CWS	SS	14	−.120	−.183	−.107	−.410
24  Castellanos, Nick	SD	DH	13	−.148	−.162	−.122	−.432
25  Ramírez, José	CLE	3B	26	−.106	−.150	−.103	−.359

Ranked by weighted on-base luck gap (xwOBA−wOBA). The most complete view of overall offensive bad luck.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
1  Durbin, Caleb	BOS	3B	15	−.221	−.284	−.207	−.712
2  Hayes, Ke'Bryan	CIN	3B	14	−.199	−.333	−.195	−.727
3  Freeman, Freddie	LAD	1B	21	−.120	−.379	−.193	−.692
4  Naylor, Josh	SEA	1B	26	−.180	−.262	−.176	−.618
5  Steer, Spencer	CIN	LF	16	−.106	−.338	−.175	−.619
6  Herrera, Iván	STL	DH	22	−.135	−.261	−.154	−.550
7  Jung, Josh	TEX	3B	17	−.162	−.184	−.149	−.495
8  Rengifo, Luis	MIL	3B	15	−.165	−.200	−.145	−.510
9  Kelly, Carson	CHC	C	14	−.114	−.302	−.141	−.557
10  Bogaerts, Xander	SD	SS	20	−.136	−.202	−.139	−.477
11  Bailey, Patrick	SF	C	18	−.142	−.225	−.136	−.503
12  Sheets, Gavin	SD	1B	14	−.128	−.193	−.135	−.456
13  Bichette, Bo	NYM	3B	24	−.135	−.185	−.125	−.445
14  Castellanos, Nick	SD	DH	13	−.148	−.162	−.122	−.432
15  Caratini, Victor	MIN	1B	12	−.091	−.235	−.116	−.442
16  Hernández, Heriberto	MIA	LF	14	−.118	−.235	−.116	−.469
17  Witt Jr., Bobby	KC	SS	16	−.120	−.188	−.116	−.424
18  Acuña Jr., Ronald	ATL	RF	22	−.045	−.247	−.114	−.406
19  Jeffers, Ryan	MIN	C	12	−.064	−.250	−.112	−.426
20  Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	18	−.093	−.189	−.109	−.391
21  Varsho, Daulton	TOR	CF	20	−.092	−.191	−.108	−.391
22  Acuña, Luisangel	CWS	SS	14	−.120	−.183	−.107	−.410
23  Clemens, Kody	MIN	1B	10	−.062	−.231	−.105	−.398
24  Ramírez, José	CLE	3B	26	−.106	−.150	−.103	−.359
25  Hamilton, David	MIL	3B	13	−.134	−.233	−.102	−.469

Source: Baseball Savant / Statcast • Min. 10 BIP • 277 qualified batters • Data through April 1, 2026 • RotoWire.com

RotoWire.com ranked MLB unlucky hitters 2026, not quite a week into the season. We used xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA from Baseball Savant for all 277 qualified batters (min. 10 BIP) through April 1. The composite luck gap sums the three expected-versus-actual differences. The bigger the gap, the more a hitter's results lag behind the quality of contact they're making.

Which MLB Hitters Have Been Hardest Hit By Bad Luck in 2026?

Ke'Bryan Hayes (CIN): Hayes, the seven-year veteran third baseman, has a minus-.727 gap in theee categories combined: real-life vs. expected batting average (.083 vs. .282), slugging percentage (.083 vs. .416) and weighted on base average, or wOBA (.166 vs. .361). The Reds righty started the season 1-for-12 at the dish. But we're expecting bigger things and Hayes' numbers might soon get closer to the Statcast expected stats 2026.

Caleb Durbin (BOS): Durbin, 26, is starting his first season in Boston and with second in MLB in a slump. The infielder began 0-for-14 batting, a year after hitting .256 with an OBP of .334 and a.387 slugging percentage as a rookie with the Milwaukee Brewers. Durbin's gap of -.712 (average, xSLG and xwOBA combined) is second in the league.

Freddie Freeman (LAD): His 4-for-20 start falls shy of telling the full story in Tinseltown. Our projections show that Freeman has the third largest gulf between the three categories tracked at -.692 and, more important, he is a proven star. At DraftKings Sportsbook, as of April 1, Freeman has +6000 odds to be NL Most Valuable Player, an award he earned with Atlanta in 2020.

Spencer Steer (CIN): The second Reds player in the top five, a utility guy for the NL Central stalwarts, has a slugging percentage (.077) well shy of the .415 xSLG our team computed. Still, with 157 games left, there's plenty of time for Steer (and Hayes) to get hot for Cincinnati.

Josh Naylor (SEA): One of the heroes on Seattle's 2025 ALCS team fell short of that standard in the first few games. Naylor's 1-for-23 start is far from ideal for xBA vs BA 2026. But we think a gulf between real and expected numbers, now wider than the Puget Sound, will likely shrink as the season rolls on.

Who Else Has Been Robbed At The Plate?

Surprisingly, the Padres' three-headed offensive machine of Xander Bogaerts, Gavin Sheets and Nick Castellanos are each in our unlucky top 25 as San Diego started 1-4.

Bogaerts' gulf of -.477 between his average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage ranked 11th overall. Sheets ranks 14th at -.456 and Castellanos comes in at No. 17, with a gulf of -.432, so San Diego's stars have looked worse than they will once the ball starts to drop (or fly over the outfield wall). Caesars Sportsbook lists San Diego with +150 odds to make the playoffs just a few games into the season.

Even that luck for the Padres pales in comparison to the Minnesota Twins, who have four hitters on our list. Of those four, Victor Caratini has the largest gulf across our metrics, at -.442, while Ryan Jeffers (18th, at -.426) and Kody Clemens (22nd, at -.398) are also on there, showing that the AL Central member might be due for an offensive breakout soon.

No player on our list packs more star power than Kansas City Royals stud Bobby Witt Jr. He has gotten off to a slow start, though his place at No. 20 with a gulf of -.424 illustrates that Royals fans should resist the urge to panic.

The final man on our list (José Ramirez of the Cleveland Guardians) seems to have already started his bounce-back from a rough start, with a .265 xwOBA vs. the .162 actual number that he has posted to date.

All told, many hitters across the league are as cold at the plate as the early spring weather. But baseball fans and customers at sportsbook apps should know that the MLB's regular season is a marathon, not a sprint. Backers should avoid drawing hasty conclusions and look for these possible MLB bounce back hitters.