2026 MLB's Unluckiest Hitters: Statcast Says They Should Be Better

Statcast says these hitters are better than their numbers show. Our luck gap model identifies the 25 MLB hitters most overdue for a breakout in 2026.

Updated on June 1, 2026 4:01PM EST

2026 MLB's Unluckiest Hitters: Statcast Says They Should Be Better

By:

Thomas Leary

Updated on June 1, 2026 4:01PM EST

Ke'Bryan Hayes is one of the best third basemen in baseball -- or at least, he's making contact like one. His .142 batting average for the Cincinnati Reds tells one story. His .409 expected slugging percentage tells a completely different one. That .184-point gap between what Hayes has actually slugged (.225) and what Statcast says he should have slugged (.409) based on his exit velocity and launch angle is one of the largest power-suppression gaps in baseball right now. He's not hitting it soft -- he's hitting it hard and getting nothing to show for it. His composite luck gap across all three expected metrics is −.420, the biggest in baseball.

Hayes isn't alone. Through the entire month of May, we ran expected stats (xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA) from Baseball Savant for all 350 qualified MLB batters with at least 75 plate appearances and summed the gaps between expected and actual production. We're calling this the luck gap -- and right now, a specific group of hitters is being systematically robbed by bad luck on balls in play.

Data Viz

2026 MLB Unluckiest Hitters

Expected vs. Actual — xBA • xSLG • xwOBA — Through June 1, 2026

Players Analyzed

350

Min. 75 PA

Biggest Gap

−.420

Hayes

Avg Luck Gap

−.210

Top 25 shown

Metrics Used

xBA · xSLG · xwOBA

Top 25 hitters ranked by composite luck gap: (xBA−BA) + (xSLG−SLG) + (xwOBA−wOBA), from 350 qualified batters (min. 75 PA). Click any column to sort.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
1 Hayes, Ke'Bryan	CIN	3B	128	−.117	−.184	−.119	−.420
2 Bailey, Patrick	CLE	C	119	−.076	−.152	−.086	−.314
3 Sosa, Edmundo	PHI	2B	97	−.087	−.130	−.084	−.301
4 Hernández, Heriberto	MIA	LF	108	−.060	−.141	−.078	−.279
5 Cronenworth, Jake	SD	2B	114	−.074	−.129	−.071	−.274
6 Acuña, Luisangel	CWS	CF	113	−.066	−.113	−.074	−.253
T-7 Bichette, Bo	NYM	3B	258	−.060	−.121	−.069	−.250
T-7 Caratini, Victor	MIN	C	162	−.056	−.119	−.075	−.250
9 Butler, Lawrence	OAK	CF	165	−.071	−.095	−.062	−.228
10 Alvarez, Yordan	HOU	DH	262	−.041	−.115	−.052	−.208
11 Nimmo, Brandon	TEX	RF	250	−.034	−.114	−.051	−.199
12 Rengifo, Luis	MIL	3B	170	−.051	−.090	−.055	−.196
13 Smith, Cam	HOU	RF	226	−.031	−.112	−.048	−.191
T-14 Julien, Edouard	COL	2B	160	−.032	−.109	−.048	−.189
T-14 Davis, Henry	PIT	C	131	−.066	−.072	−.051	−.189
T-14 Grichuk, Randal	CWS	LF	76	−.057	−.078	−.054	−.189
17 Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	192	−.036	−.098	−.047	−.181
18 Seager, Corey	TEX	SS	182	−.045	−.089	−.046	−.180
T-19 Stephenson, Tyler	CIN	C	164	−.026	−.105	−.046	−.177
T-19 Wells, Austin	NYY	C	159	−.041	−.091	−.045	−.177
21 Dingler, Dillon	DET	C	216	−.059	−.069	−.045	−.173
22 Ramírez, José	CLE	3B	267	−.059	−.068	−.044	−.171
23 Semien, Marcus	NYM	2B	233	−.035	−.088	−.044	−.167
24 Merrill, Jackson	SD	CF	229	−.034	−.085	−.041	−.160
25 Machado, Manny	SD	3B	233	−.058	−.048	−.041	−.147

The 10 hitters whose quality of contact most outpaces their actual results. Red = actual. Gray = expected.

CIN 3B

Hayes, Ke'Bryan

BA.142 / .259

SLG.225 / .409

wOBA.193 / .312

Luck gap−.420

CLE C

Bailey, Patrick

BA.147 / .223

SLG.220 / .372

wOBA.200 / .286

Luck gap−.314

PHI 2B

Sosa, Edmundo

BA.211 / .298

SLG.344 / .474

wOBA.264 / .348

Luck gap−.301

MIA LF

Hernández, Heriberto

BA.200 / .260

SLG.284 / .425

wOBA.265 / .343

Luck gap−.279

SD 2B

Cronenworth, Jake

BA.144 / .218

SLG.196 / .325

wOBA.233 / .304

Luck gap−.274

CWS CF

Acuña, Luisangel

BA.165 / .231

SLG.175 / .288

wOBA.184 / .258

Luck gap−.253

T-7

NYM 3B

Bichette, Bo

BA.219 / .279

SLG.308 / .429

wOBA.264 / .333

Luck gap−.250

T-7

MIN C

Caratini, Victor

BA.188 / .244

SLG.248 / .367

wOBA.254 / .329

Luck gap−.250

OAK CF

Butler, Lawrence

BA.164 / .235

SLG.247 / .342

wOBA.237 / .299

Luck gap−.228

HOU DH

Alvarez, Yordan

BA.301 / .342

SLG.634 / .749

wOBA.441 / .493

Luck gap−.208

Ranked by batting average luck gap (xBA−BA). These hitters are making solid contact but getting unlucky on balls in play.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
1 Hayes, Ke'Bryan	CIN	3B	128	−.117	−.184	−.119	−.420
3 Sosa, Edmundo	PHI	2B	97	−.087	−.130	−.084	−.301
2 Bailey, Patrick	CLE	C	119	−.076	−.152	−.086	−.314
5 Cronenworth, Jake	SD	2B	114	−.074	−.129	−.071	−.274
9 Butler, Lawrence	OAK	CF	165	−.071	−.095	−.062	−.228
6 Acuña, Luisangel	CWS	CF	113	−.066	−.113	−.074	−.253
T-14 Davis, Henry	PIT	C	131	−.066	−.072	−.051	−.189
T-7 Bichette, Bo	NYM	3B	258	−.060	−.121	−.069	−.250
4 Hernández, Heriberto	MIA	LF	108	−.060	−.141	−.078	−.279
21 Dingler, Dillon	DET	C	216	−.059	−.069	−.045	−.173
22 Ramírez, José	CLE	3B	267	−.059	−.068	−.044	−.171
25 Machado, Manny	SD	3B	233	−.058	−.048	−.041	−.147
T-14 Grichuk, Randal	CWS	LF	76	−.057	−.078	−.054	−.189
T-7 Caratini, Victor	MIN	C	162	−.056	−.119	−.075	−.250
12 Rengifo, Luis	MIL	3B	170	−.051	−.090	−.055	−.196
18 Seager, Corey	TEX	SS	182	−.045	−.089	−.046	−.180
10 Alvarez, Yordan	HOU	DH	262	−.041	−.115	−.052	−.208
T-19 Wells, Austin	NYY	C	159	−.041	−.091	−.045	−.177
17 Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	192	−.036	−.098	−.047	−.181
23 Semien, Marcus	NYM	2B	233	−.035	−.088	−.044	−.167
24 Merrill, Jackson	SD	CF	229	−.034	−.085	−.041	−.160
11 Nimmo, Brandon	TEX	RF	250	−.034	−.114	−.051	−.199
T-14 Julien, Edouard	COL	2B	160	−.032	−.109	−.048	−.189
13 Smith, Cam	HOU	RF	226	−.031	−.112	−.048	−.191
T-19 Stephenson, Tyler	CIN	C	164	−.026	−.105	−.046	−.177

Ranked by slugging luck gap (xSLG−SLG). Power hitters whose extra-base hits haven't materialized yet.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
1 Hayes, Ke'Bryan	CIN	3B	128	−.117	−.184	−.119	−.420
2 Bailey, Patrick	CLE	C	119	−.076	−.152	−.086	−.314
4 Hernández, Heriberto	MIA	LF	108	−.060	−.141	−.078	−.279
3 Sosa, Edmundo	PHI	2B	97	−.087	−.130	−.084	−.301
5 Cronenworth, Jake	SD	2B	114	−.074	−.129	−.071	−.274
T-7 Bichette, Bo	NYM	3B	258	−.060	−.121	−.069	−.250
T-7 Caratini, Victor	MIN	C	162	−.056	−.119	−.075	−.250
10 Alvarez, Yordan	HOU	DH	262	−.041	−.115	−.052	−.208
11 Nimmo, Brandon	TEX	RF	250	−.034	−.114	−.051	−.199
6 Acuña, Luisangel	CWS	CF	113	−.066	−.113	−.074	−.253
13 Smith, Cam	HOU	RF	226	−.031	−.112	−.048	−.191
T-14 Julien, Edouard	COL	2B	160	−.032	−.109	−.048	−.189
T-19 Stephenson, Tyler	CIN	C	164	−.026	−.105	−.046	−.177
17 Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	192	−.036	−.098	−.047	−.181
9 Butler, Lawrence	OAK	CF	165	−.071	−.095	−.062	−.228
T-19 Wells, Austin	NYY	C	159	−.041	−.091	−.045	−.177
12 Rengifo, Luis	MIL	3B	170	−.051	−.090	−.055	−.196
18 Seager, Corey	TEX	SS	182	−.045	−.089	−.046	−.180
23 Semien, Marcus	NYM	2B	233	−.035	−.088	−.044	−.167
24 Merrill, Jackson	SD	CF	229	−.034	−.085	−.041	−.160
T-14 Grichuk, Randal	CWS	LF	76	−.057	−.078	−.054	−.189
T-14 Davis, Henry	PIT	C	131	−.066	−.072	−.051	−.189
21 Dingler, Dillon	DET	C	216	−.059	−.069	−.045	−.173
22 Ramírez, José	CLE	3B	267	−.059	−.068	−.044	−.171
25 Machado, Manny	SD	3B	233	−.058	−.048	−.041	−.147

Ranked by weighted on-base luck gap (xwOBA−wOBA). The most complete view of overall offensive bad luck.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
1 Hayes, Ke'Bryan	CIN	3B	128	−.117	−.184	−.119	−.420
2 Bailey, Patrick	CLE	C	119	−.076	−.152	−.086	−.314
3 Sosa, Edmundo	PHI	2B	97	−.087	−.130	−.084	−.301
4 Hernández, Heriberto	MIA	LF	108	−.060	−.141	−.078	−.279
T-7 Caratini, Victor	MIN	C	162	−.056	−.119	−.075	−.250
6 Acuña, Luisangel	CWS	CF	113	−.066	−.113	−.074	−.253
5 Cronenworth, Jake	SD	2B	114	−.074	−.129	−.071	−.274
T-7 Bichette, Bo	NYM	3B	258	−.060	−.121	−.069	−.250
9 Butler, Lawrence	OAK	CF	165	−.071	−.095	−.062	−.228
12 Rengifo, Luis	MIL	3B	170	−.051	−.090	−.055	−.196
T-14 Grichuk, Randal	CWS	LF	76	−.057	−.078	−.054	−.189
10 Alvarez, Yordan	HOU	DH	262	−.041	−.115	−.052	−.208
11 Nimmo, Brandon	TEX	RF	250	−.034	−.114	−.051	−.199
T-14 Davis, Henry	PIT	C	131	−.066	−.072	−.051	−.189
13 Smith, Cam	HOU	RF	226	−.031	−.112	−.048	−.191
T-14 Julien, Edouard	COL	2B	160	−.032	−.109	−.048	−.189
17 Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	192	−.036	−.098	−.047	−.181
18 Seager, Corey	TEX	SS	182	−.045	−.089	−.046	−.180
T-19 Stephenson, Tyler	CIN	C	164	−.026	−.105	−.046	−.177
T-19 Wells, Austin	NYY	C	159	−.041	−.091	−.045	−.177
21 Dingler, Dillon	DET	C	216	−.059	−.069	−.045	−.173
22 Ramírez, José	CLE	3B	267	−.059	−.068	−.044	−.171
23 Semien, Marcus	NYM	2B	233	−.035	−.088	−.044	−.167
24 Merrill, Jackson	SD	CF	229	−.034	−.085	−.041	−.160
25 Machado, Manny	SD	3B	233	−.058	−.048	−.041	−.147

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What Is the Luck Gap?

Statcast's expected statistics remove defense and ballpark from the equation. Every batted ball gets assigned an expected outcome based on its exit velocity, launch angle, and in some cases sprint speed -- compared against thousands of similar balls in play throughout baseball history. When a hitter's actual results consistently trail what those expected outcomes would suggest, that's bad luck, not bad hitting.

Our composite luck gap adds three differences together: xBA minus actual BA, xSLG minus actual SLG, and xwOBA minus actual wOBA. The larger the number, the more a hitter's results lag behind their contact quality. The interactive widget below shows all 25 hitters, sortable by any column.

The Five Unluckiest Hitters Beyond Ke'Bryan Hayes

With Hayes (#1) covered in our intro, here are the next five hitters whose contact quality most dramatically outpaces their actual results.

#2. Patrick Bailey, C, Cleveland Guardians

Bailey, who joined Cleveland this offseason, ranks second in MLB with a composite luck gap of −.314. Across 119 plate appearances, the catcher's xBA outpaces his actual batting average by .076, while his xSLG exceeds his real slugging by .152. Bailey appeared on our early-season list as well, and his presence here two months in suggests genuine bad luck rather than a small-sample fluke.

#3. Edmundo Sosa, SS Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies' utility infielder has a composite gap of −.301 across 97 plate appearances, the third-largest in the majors. Sosa's BA gap of −.087 and SLG gap of −.130 indicate that he's squaring the ball up consistently but getting little to show for it. Philadelphia's lineup depth means Sosa's playing time could be at risk if the results don't catch up to the contact quality soon.

#4. Heriberto Hernandez, LF, Miami Marlins

Hernández, who also appeared on our April list, has a composite gap of −.279 across 108 plate appearances. His SLG gap of −.141 is the most striking number -- the Miami outfielder has been driving the ball with authority, but the extra-base hits haven't materialized. For a Marlins squad in rebuilding mode, Hernández's underlying metrics point to a player worth watching for xBA vs BA 2026 bounce-back value.

#5. Jake Cronenworth, 2B, San Diego Padres

The Padres' second baseman rounds out the top five with a composite luck gap of −.274 in 114 plate appearances. Cronenworth's BA gap (−.074), SLG gap (−.129) and wOBA gap (−.071) are all sizable, and San Diego will be hoping the numbers level out as the calendar turns toward summer. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Cronenworth's Padres remain in the NL West conversation, and better production from his bat would only strengthen their case.

None of those players are guaranteed to surge in the next few months, but MLB odds for their player props could offer value if these players heat up.

Other Names Worth Watching

The CWS White Sox's pair of Luisangel Acuña (6th, −.253) and Randal Grichuk (T-14th, −.189) both appear on the list, though for different reasons: Acuña's gap is spread evenly across all three metrics, while Grichuk's leans heavily toward contact that isn't falling for hits.

The NYM New York Mets place two hitters on the board in Bo Bichette (T-7th, −.250) and Marcus Semien (23rd, −.167). Bichette's 258 plate appearances make his gap one of the most robust on the list -- this isn't a small-sample anomaly. The Mets will need both middle infielders' bats to heat up if they want to stay in the NL East race.

No player on our list packs more star power than Houston's Yordan Alvarez, who sits at No. 10 with a composite gap of −.208 across a hefty 262 plate appearances. His SLG gap of −.115 tells the story: Alvarez is making elite contact that simply isn't translating to extra-base hits at his usual rate. The HOU Astros slugger is joined in the top 25 by teammate Cam Smith (13th, −.191), giving Houston two bats primed for positive regression.

TEX Texas Rangers fans might find some solace in seeing both Brandon Nimmo (11th, −.199) and Corey Seager (18th, −.180) on the list. Seager's SLG gap of −.089 and Nimmo's −.114 suggest both have been hitting the ball hard without the expected power output. Caesars Sportsbook still has the Rangers in the playoff picture, and better luck for those two bats could make all the difference in the AL West.

The Padres land a league-high three hitters on the list: Cronenworth (5th), Jackson Merrill (24th, −.160) and Manny Machado (25th, −.147). Machado's BA gap of −.058 across 233 plate appearances is notable for a veteran who typically runs a BABIP well above league average. San Diego's trio of unlucky hitters suggests the club's offense has more upside ahead than its current run production indicates.

The CIN Reds have a second player join Hayes in Tyler Stephenson (T-19th, −.177), whose SLG gap of −.105 points to missing power production. Meanwhile, José Ramírez of the Cleveland Guardians (22nd, −.171) returns to our list for a second time this season. With 267 PA under his belt, Ramírez's BA gap of −.059 and SLG gap of −.068 remain persistent, though we expect the perennial All-Star to close that gap as the summer heats up.

What This Means for Fantasy Baseball

The practical takeaway here is straightforward: these hitters are buy-low opportunities. Statcast doesn't guarantee a turnaround — BABIP can stay depressed for extended stretches, and sometimes bad luck has a real explanation like a swing change or injury. But the concentration of quality contact with zero results, especially in cases like Ramírez and Alvarez where the track records are ironclad, suggests these hitters are more likely to produce than their current batting lines indicate.

Check out this week's top fantasy targets for availability on names like Bailey, Hernández, and Manzardo. And use our interactive widget above to sort by BA gap, SLG gap, or wOBA gap to identify the most extreme mismatches in whichever category matters most for your league format.

Methodology

Data sourced from Baseball Savant's Statcast expected statistics leaderboard through May 14, 2026. Minimum 75 plate appearances (301 qualified batters). Composite luck gap equals (xBA − BA) + (xSLG − SLG) + (xwOBA − wOBA). All 25 players verified active MLB roster as of June 1, 2026.

Christopher Boan contributed to an earlier version of this article.