2026 MLB's Unluckiest Hitters: Statcast Says They Should Be Better

Early in the Major League Baseball and MLB betting season, some of the sport's biggest stars have started slowly. This year, that appears to be the case with several noteworthy stars, such as Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels and Freddie Freeman (above) of the crosstown Dodgers.

Mere stats don't do either justice. Trout's .222 as of April 14 is well below his expected average, according to Baseball Savant. Freeman's gulf between actual average (.257) and expected average (.315) is just as stark.

The team at RotoWire.com broke down the biggest gulfs between average, slugging and on-base percentage and compared it with Baseball Savant's expected totals for each category.

Data Viz

2026 MLB Unluckiest Hitters

Expected vs. Actual — xBA • xSLG • xwOBA — Through April 15, 2026

Players Analyzed

283

Min. 10 BIP

Biggest Gap

−.689

Hayes

Avg Luck Gap

−.352

Top 25 shown

Metrics Used

3

xBA · xSLG · xwOBA

Full RankingsTop 10 UnluckyBA GapSLG GapwOBA Gap

Top 25 hitters ranked by composite luck gap: (xBA−BA) + (xSLG−SLG) + (xwOBA−wOBA), from 283 qualified batters (min. 10 BIP). Click any column to sort.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
1  Hayes, Ke'Bryan	CIN	3B	44	−.171	−.324	−.194	−.689
2  Naylor, Bo	CLE	C	39	−.104	−.310	−.150	−.564
3  Bailey, Patrick	SF	C	47	−.114	−.237	−.133	−.484
4  Castellanos, Nick	SD	DH	38	−.129	−.189	−.124	−.442
5  Alexander, Blaze	BAL	3B	43	−.123	−.181	−.116	−.420
6  Naylor, Josh	SEA	1B	74	−.105	−.166	−.101	−.372
7  Trout, Mike	LAA	CF	80	−.063	−.219	−.084	−.366
8  Cronenworth, Jake	SD	2B	62	−.106	−.154	−.095	−.355
9  Tawa, Tim	ARI	LF	38	−.111	−.145	−.096	−.352
10  Harris II, Michael	ATL	CF	61	−.044	−.207	−.090	−.341
11  Bader, Harrison	SF	CF	55	−.081	−.143	−.107	−.331
12  Acuña Jr., Ronald	ATL	RF	81	−.052	−.192	−.085	−.329
13  Herrera, Iván	STL	DH	78	−.094	−.153	−.081	−.328
14  Stott, Bryson	PHI	2B	59	−.062	−.165	−.081	−.308
15  Manzardo, Kyle	CLE	1B	54	−.067	−.161	−.079	−.307
16  Thomas, Alek	ARI	CF	53	−.069	−.147	−.082	−.298
17  Freeman, Freddie	LAD	1B	75	−.058	−.161	−.076	−.295
18  Grisham, Trent	NYY	CF	65	−.089	−.132	−.071	−.292
19  Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	52	−.071	−.141	−.079	−.291
20  Burleson, Alec	STL	1B	75	−.037	−.180	−.069	−.286
21  Smith, Josh	TEX	2B	55	−.052	−.156	−.073	−.281
22  Caratini, Victor	MIN	C	63	−.066	−.137	−.076	−.279
23  Crawford, J.P.	SEA	SS	43	−.048	−.167	−.060	−.275
24  Wells, Austin	NYY	C	53	−.067	−.129	−.068	−.264
25  Ramírez, José	CLE	3B	79	−.072	−.123	−.065	−.260

The 10 hitters whose quality of contact most outpaces their actual results. Red = actual. Gray = expected.

1

CIN 3B

Hayes, Ke'Bryan

BA.073 / .244

SLG.073 / .397

wOBA.111 / .305

Luck gap−.689

2

CLE C

Naylor, Bo

BA.143 / .247

SLG.143 / .453

wOBA.190 / .340

Luck gap−.564

3

SF C

Bailey, Patrick

BA.136 / .250

SLG.136 / .373

wOBA.162 / .295

Luck gap−.484

4

SD DH

Castellanos, Nick

BA.200 / .329

SLG.286 / .475

wOBA.242 / .366

Luck gap−.442

5

BAL 3B

Alexander, Blaze

BA.211 / .334

SLG.237 / .418

wOBA.240 / .356

Luck gap−.420

6

SEA 1B

Naylor, Josh

BA.134 / .239

SLG.224 / .390

wOBA.204 / .305

Luck gap−.372

7

LAA CF

Trout, Mike

BA.222 / .285

SLG.508 / .727

wOBA.397 / .481

Luck gap−.366

8

SD 2B

Cronenworth, Jake

BA.145 / .251

SLG.218 / .372

wOBA.223 / .318

Luck gap−.355

9

ARI LF

Tawa, Tim

BA.094 / .205

SLG.125 / .270

wOBA.161 / .257

Luck gap−.352

10

ATL CF

Harris II, Michael

BA.241 / .285

SLG.362 / .569

wOBA.289 / .379

Luck gap−.341

Ranked by batting average luck gap (xBA−BA). These hitters are making solid contact but getting unlucky on balls in play.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
1  Hayes, Ke'Bryan	CIN	3B	44	−.171	−.324	−.194	−.689
2  Castellanos, Nick	SD	DH	38	−.129	−.189	−.124	−.442
3  Alexander, Blaze	BAL	3B	43	−.123	−.181	−.116	−.420
4  Bailey, Patrick	SF	C	47	−.114	−.237	−.133	−.484
5  Tawa, Tim	ARI	LF	38	−.111	−.145	−.096	−.352
6  Cronenworth, Jake	SD	2B	62	−.106	−.154	−.095	−.355
7  Naylor, Josh	SEA	1B	74	−.105	−.166	−.101	−.372
8  Naylor, Bo	CLE	C	39	−.104	−.310	−.150	−.564
9  Herrera, Iván	STL	DH	78	−.094	−.153	−.081	−.328
10  Grisham, Trent	NYY	CF	65	−.089	−.132	−.071	−.292
11  Bader, Harrison	SF	CF	55	−.081	−.143	−.107	−.331
12  Ramírez, José	CLE	3B	79	−.072	−.123	−.065	−.260
13  Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	52	−.071	−.141	−.079	−.291
14  Thomas, Alek	ARI	CF	53	−.069	−.147	−.082	−.298
15  Manzardo, Kyle	CLE	1B	54	−.067	−.161	−.079	−.307
16  Wells, Austin	NYY	C	53	−.067	−.129	−.068	−.264
17  Caratini, Victor	MIN	C	63	−.066	−.137	−.076	−.279
18  Trout, Mike	LAA	CF	80	−.063	−.219	−.084	−.366
19  Stott, Bryson	PHI	2B	59	−.062	−.165	−.081	−.308
20  Freeman, Freddie	LAD	1B	75	−.058	−.161	−.076	−.295
21  Smith, Josh	TEX	2B	55	−.052	−.156	−.073	−.281
22  Acuña Jr., Ronald	ATL	RF	81	−.052	−.192	−.085	−.329
23  Crawford, J.P.	SEA	SS	43	−.048	−.167	−.060	−.275
24  Harris II, Michael	ATL	CF	61	−.044	−.207	−.090	−.341
25  Burleson, Alec	STL	1B	75	−.037	−.180	−.069	−.286

Ranked by slugging luck gap (xSLG−SLG). Power hitters whose extra-base hits haven't materialized yet.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
1  Hayes, Ke'Bryan	CIN	3B	44	−.171	−.324	−.194	−.689
2  Naylor, Bo	CLE	C	39	−.104	−.310	−.150	−.564
3  Bailey, Patrick	SF	C	47	−.114	−.237	−.133	−.484
4  Trout, Mike	LAA	CF	80	−.063	−.219	−.084	−.366
5  Harris II, Michael	ATL	CF	61	−.044	−.207	−.090	−.341
6  Acuña Jr., Ronald	ATL	RF	81	−.052	−.192	−.085	−.329
7  Castellanos, Nick	SD	DH	38	−.129	−.189	−.124	−.442
8  Alexander, Blaze	BAL	3B	43	−.123	−.181	−.116	−.420
9  Burleson, Alec	STL	1B	75	−.037	−.180	−.069	−.286
10  Crawford, J.P.	SEA	SS	43	−.048	−.167	−.060	−.275
11  Naylor, Josh	SEA	1B	74	−.105	−.166	−.101	−.372
12  Stott, Bryson	PHI	2B	59	−.062	−.165	−.081	−.308
13  Manzardo, Kyle	CLE	1B	54	−.067	−.161	−.079	−.307
14  Freeman, Freddie	LAD	1B	75	−.058	−.161	−.076	−.295
15  Smith, Josh	TEX	2B	55	−.052	−.156	−.073	−.281
16  Cronenworth, Jake	SD	2B	62	−.106	−.154	−.095	−.355
17  Herrera, Iván	STL	DH	78	−.094	−.153	−.081	−.328
18  Thomas, Alek	ARI	CF	53	−.069	−.147	−.082	−.298
19  Tawa, Tim	ARI	LF	38	−.111	−.145	−.096	−.352
20  Bader, Harrison	SF	CF	55	−.081	−.143	−.107	−.331
21  Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	52	−.071	−.141	−.079	−.291
22  Caratini, Victor	MIN	C	63	−.066	−.137	−.076	−.279
23  Grisham, Trent	NYY	CF	65	−.089	−.132	−.071	−.292
24  Wells, Austin	NYY	C	53	−.067	−.129	−.068	−.264
25  Ramírez, José	CLE	3B	79	−.072	−.123	−.065	−.260

Ranked by weighted on-base luck gap (xwOBA−wOBA). The most complete view of overall offensive bad luck.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
1  Hayes, Ke'Bryan	CIN	3B	44	−.171	−.324	−.194	−.689
2  Naylor, Bo	CLE	C	39	−.104	−.310	−.150	−.564
3  Bailey, Patrick	SF	C	47	−.114	−.237	−.133	−.484
4  Castellanos, Nick	SD	DH	38	−.129	−.189	−.124	−.442
5  Alexander, Blaze	BAL	3B	43	−.123	−.181	−.116	−.420
6  Bader, Harrison	SF	CF	55	−.081	−.143	−.107	−.331
7  Naylor, Josh	SEA	1B	74	−.105	−.166	−.101	−.372
8  Tawa, Tim	ARI	LF	38	−.111	−.145	−.096	−.352
9  Cronenworth, Jake	SD	2B	62	−.106	−.154	−.095	−.355
10  Harris II, Michael	ATL	CF	61	−.044	−.207	−.090	−.341
11  Acuña Jr., Ronald	ATL	RF	81	−.052	−.192	−.085	−.329
12  Trout, Mike	LAA	CF	80	−.063	−.219	−.084	−.366
13  Thomas, Alek	ARI	CF	53	−.069	−.147	−.082	−.298
14  Herrera, Iván	STL	DH	78	−.094	−.153	−.081	−.328
15  Stott, Bryson	PHI	2B	59	−.062	−.165	−.081	−.308
16  Manzardo, Kyle	CLE	1B	54	−.067	−.161	−.079	−.307
17  Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	52	−.071	−.141	−.079	−.291
18  Caratini, Victor	MIN	C	63	−.066	−.137	−.076	−.279
19  Freeman, Freddie	LAD	1B	75	−.058	−.161	−.076	−.295
20  Smith, Josh	TEX	2B	55	−.052	−.156	−.073	−.281
21  Grisham, Trent	NYY	CF	65	−.089	−.132	−.071	−.292
22  Burleson, Alec	STL	1B	75	−.037	−.180	−.069	−.286
23  Wells, Austin	NYY	C	53	−.067	−.129	−.068	−.264
24  Ramírez, José	CLE	3B	79	−.072	−.123	−.065	−.260
25  Crawford, J.P.	SEA	SS	43	−.048	−.167	−.060	−.275

Source: Baseball Savant / Statcast • Min. 10 BIP • 283 qualified batters • Data through April 15, 2026 • RotoWire.com

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Which MLB Hitters Have Been Hardest Hit By Bad Luck in 2026?

Ke'Bryan Hayes (CIN): The unluckiest man in the Majors is Hayes, whose gap of -.689 dwarves the next closest hitter leaguewide. He has a.073 gap between his actual and expected batting average, also .073 in expected slugging percentage (xSPG) and.111 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) so it's no wonder Hayes has seen the toughest of tough luck through 41 at-bats this season.

Bo Naylor (CLE): Naylor's .143 batting average through 35 at-bats has been a bit misleading for the Guardians' veteran backstop. Naylor's expected batting average, per Baseball Savant, is .247, while his expected slugging percentage (.453) and expected on-base percentage (.305) are well above his actual numbers (.143 and .190).

Patrick Bailey (SF): The fourth-year catcher for the Giants has been snakebit at the plate this year, with a whopping -.484 gap between his actual vs. expected numbers combined for the three categories we studied. Through 44 at-bats, Bailey has six hits, zero home runs and one RBI, though he sports an expected batting average of .250, along with an xSLG of .373 and a xwOBA of .295.

Nick Castellanos (SD): Castellanos' first season in San Diego hasn't gone as planned. The veteran of 14 MLB seasons is 7-for-38 (.200) at the dish, with a .286 slugging percentage and an eye-watering .242 wOBA. Castellanos' gap between where he has been and where he should be – given the type of contact he has made – tells a much more forgiving tale, as his -.442 figure is the fourth-highest leaguewide.

Blaze Alexander (BAL): The first year of the Blaze Alexander experience in Baltimore has not gone to plan so far, with the 26-year-old going 8-for-38 at the plate with no homers and one RBI in 13 games played. Alexander's actual stats fall well shy of where they should be, with a gap of -.420 to date, thanks to his .211 average falling .123 points shy of his expected one (.334), as is the case with his slugging (.237, vs. .418) and on-base (.240, vs. 356) percentages.

Who Else Has Been Shortchanged At The Plate?

Two names familiar with anybody following MLB odds stick out on our list.

Among the big-name players on our unlucky hitters list is Mike Trout. His return from an injury-plagued 2025 season has seen him post numbers that are well short of where he's been through his potential Hall of Fame career.

While Trout's slash line of .222/.388/.508 doesn't look sexy, it only tells part of the tale, as the .219 gap between his actual slugging percentage (.508) and expected one (.727) is a massive power gap for a player returning from injury.

On a team level, three Cleveland Guardians (Bo Naylor, Kyle Manzardo and José Ramirez) are all in our top 25, speaking to how unlucky the team's starting nine has been at the plate. Still, after a 10-8 start, the Guardians are one game behind the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central and have +280 odds at Caesars Sportsbook to win the division.

Two NL West clubs, the Arizona Diamondbacks (Tim Tawa and Alek Thomas) and San Francisco Giants (Bailey and Harrison Bader) have two members each on our top 25 list.

Elsewhere in the division, Freddie Freeman's struggles at the plate have subsided a bit, thanks to his .257/.457/.340 slash line falling -.295 shy of where he should be, according to Baseball Savant. That -.295 gap is much shorter than the -.692 difference he had through April 1, but the bottom line is that the veteran infielder has had quality contact all year, just with ugly results.

All told, baseball fans and customers at sportsbook apps should know that the MLB's regular season is a marathon, not a sprint. Backers should avoid drawing hasty conclusions and keep an eye on these possible MLB bounceback hitters.

Methodology

RotoWire.com pulled expected batting average (xBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG) and expected on-base percentage (xwOBA) from Baseball Savant for all 283 qualified batters (min. 10 BIP) through April 15. The composite luck gap sums up the three expected-vs-actual differences. The bigger the gap, the more a hitter's results lag behind the quality of contact they're making.