2026 MLB's Unluckiest Hitters: Statcast Says They Should Be Better

Austin Wells is hitting .178 for the New York Yankees. His expected slugging percentage is .365. That's a 91-point gap between what Statcast says Wells should be slugging -- based on exit velocity and launch angle on every ball he's put in play -- and what actually shows up in the box score. He leads baseball's unluckiest hitters through July 13, and he's not alone.

We ran expected statistics (xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA) from Baseball Savant for all 256 qualified MLB batters with at least 75 plate appearances and summed the gaps between expected and actual production. We call this the composite luck gap. The bigger the number, the more a hitter's results lag behind the quality of contact they're making. The interactive rankings below are sortable by any metric.

What Is the Luck Gap?

Statcast's expected statistics remove defense, stadium, and luck from the equation. Every batted ball is assigned an expected outcome based on its exit velocity and launch angle, compared against thousands of similar batted balls throughout baseball history. When a hitter's actual results consistently trail those expected outcomes, that's the luck gap -- and the players who run the largest gaps are the most likely to see their numbers move in the second half.

Our composite luck gap equals (xBA − BA) + (xSLG − SLG) + (xwOBA − wOBA). Minimum 75 plate appearances. All 256 qualified batters included in the full rankings widget below.

Data Viz

2026 MLB Unluckiest Hitters

Expected vs. Actual — xBA • xSLG • xwOBA — Through July 13, 2026

Players Analyzed

256

Min. 75 PA

Biggest Gap

−.205

Wells

Avg Luck Gap

−.136

Top 25 shown

Metrics Used

3

xBA · xSLG · xwOBA

Full RankingsTop 10 UnluckyBA GapSLG GapwOBA Gap

Top 25 hitters ranked by composite luck gap: (xBA−BA) + (xSLG−SLG) + (xwOBA−wOBA), from 256 qualified batters (min. 75 PA). Click any column to sort.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
1  Wells, Austin	NYY	C	220	−.052	−.097	−.056	−.205
2  Rengifo, Luis	SD	3B	211	−.045	−.085	−.051	−.181
3  Nimmo, Brandon	TEX	RF	384	−.030	−.097	−.049	−.176
4  Julien, Edouard	COL	2B	247	−.032	−.097	−.045	−.174
5  Smith, Cam	HOU	RF	361	−.036	−.081	−.045	−.162
T-6  Seager, Corey	TEX	SS	219	−.044	−.072	−.043	−.159
T-6  Semien, Marcus	NYM	2B	318	−.041	−.073	−.045	−.159
8  Trout, Mike	LAA	CF	354	−.025	−.084	−.035	−.144
T-9  Alvarez, Yordan	HOU	DH	420	−.017	−.080	−.035	−.132
T-9  Butler, Lawrence	OAK	CF	274	−.041	−.055	−.036	−.132
11  Baldwin, Drake	ATL	C	319	−.021	−.075	−.035	−.131
T-12  Burleson, Alec	STL	1B	398	−.021	−.072	−.036	−.129
T-12  Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	250	−.021	−.074	−.034	−.129
14  McLain, Matt	CIN	2B	309	−.036	−.058	−.034	−.128
T-15  Witt Jr., Bobby	KC	SS	403	−.025	−.060	−.036	−.121
T-15  Vierling, Matt	DET	CF	262	−.044	−.039	−.038	−.121
T-17  Hoerner, Nico	CHC	2B	420	−.051	−.034	−.034	−.119
T-17  Judge, Aaron	NYY	RF	261	−.022	−.067	−.030	−.119
19  Vargas, Miguel	CWS	3B	409	−.030	−.051	−.035	−.116
20  Bichette, Bo	NYM	3B	413	−.030	−.052	−.033	−.115
21  Vientos, Mark	NYM	1B	254	−.023	−.059	−.030	−.112
22  Merrill, Jackson	SD	CF	392	−.022	−.058	−.030	−.110
23  McNeil, Jeff	OAK	2B	294	−.037	−.040	−.030	−.107
24  Baty, Brett	NYM	DH	328	−.015	−.060	−.031	−.106
25  Guerrero Jr., Vladimir	TOR	1B	387	−.025	−.049	−.031	−.105

The 10 hitters whose quality of contact most outpaces their actual results. Red = actual. Gray = expected.

1

NYY C

Wells, Austin

BA.155 / .207

SLG.258 / .355

wOBA.229 / .285

Luck gap−.205

2

SD 3B

Rengifo, Luis

BA.203 / .248

SLG.251 / .336

wOBA.243 / .294

Luck gap−.181

3

TEX RF

Nimmo, Brandon

BA.263 / .293

SLG.425 / .522

wOBA.330 / .379

Luck gap−.176

4

COL 2B

Julien, Edouard

BA.222 / .254

SLG.307 / .404

wOBA.296 / .341

Luck gap−.174

5

HOU RF

Smith, Cam

BA.218 / .254

SLG.377 / .458

wOBA.295 / .340

Luck gap−.162

T-6

TEX SS

Seager, Corey

BA.182 / .226

SLG.374 / .446

wOBA.293 / .336

Luck gap−.159

T-6

NYM 2B

Semien, Marcus

BA.214 / .255

SLG.341 / .414

wOBA.271 / .316

Luck gap−.159

8

LAA CF

Trout, Mike

BA.237 / .262

SLG.473 / .557

wOBA.374 / .409

Luck gap−.144

T-9

HOU DH

Alvarez, Yordan

BA.318 / .335

SLG.633 / .713

wOBA.439 / .474

Luck gap−.132

T-9

OAK CF

Butler, Lawrence

BA.196 / .237

SLG.296 / .351

wOBA.271 / .307

Luck gap−.132

Ranked by batting average luck gap (xBA−BA). These hitters are making solid contact but getting unlucky on balls in play.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
1  Wells, Austin	NYY	C	220	−.052	−.097	−.056	−.205
T-17  Hoerner, Nico	CHC	2B	420	−.051	−.034	−.034	−.119
2  Rengifo, Luis	SD	3B	211	−.045	−.085	−.051	−.181
T-6  Seager, Corey	TEX	SS	219	−.044	−.072	−.043	−.159
T-15  Vierling, Matt	DET	CF	262	−.044	−.039	−.038	−.121
T-6  Semien, Marcus	NYM	2B	318	−.041	−.073	−.045	−.159
T-9  Butler, Lawrence	OAK	CF	274	−.041	−.055	−.036	−.132
23  McNeil, Jeff	OAK	2B	294	−.037	−.040	−.030	−.107
5  Smith, Cam	HOU	RF	361	−.036	−.081	−.045	−.162
14  McLain, Matt	CIN	2B	309	−.036	−.058	−.034	−.128
4  Julien, Edouard	COL	2B	247	−.032	−.097	−.045	−.174
19  Vargas, Miguel	CWS	3B	409	−.030	−.051	−.035	−.116
3  Nimmo, Brandon	TEX	RF	384	−.030	−.097	−.049	−.176
20  Bichette, Bo	NYM	3B	413	−.030	−.052	−.033	−.115
8  Trout, Mike	LAA	CF	354	−.025	−.084	−.035	−.144
T-15  Witt Jr., Bobby	KC	SS	403	−.025	−.060	−.036	−.121
25  Guerrero Jr., Vladimir	TOR	1B	387	−.025	−.049	−.031	−.105
21  Vientos, Mark	NYM	1B	254	−.023	−.059	−.030	−.112
T-17  Judge, Aaron	NYY	RF	261	−.022	−.067	−.030	−.119
22  Merrill, Jackson	SD	CF	392	−.022	−.058	−.030	−.110
11  Baldwin, Drake	ATL	C	319	−.021	−.075	−.035	−.131
T-12  Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	250	−.021	−.074	−.034	−.129
T-12  Burleson, Alec	STL	1B	398	−.021	−.072	−.036	−.129
T-9  Alvarez, Yordan	HOU	DH	420	−.017	−.080	−.035	−.132
24  Baty, Brett	NYM	DH	328	−.015	−.060	−.031	−.106

Ranked by slugging luck gap (xSLG−SLG). Power hitters whose extra-base hits haven't materialized yet.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
3  Nimmo, Brandon	TEX	RF	384	−.030	−.097	−.049	−.176
4  Julien, Edouard	COL	2B	247	−.032	−.097	−.045	−.174
1  Wells, Austin	NYY	C	220	−.052	−.097	−.056	−.205
2  Rengifo, Luis	SD	3B	211	−.045	−.085	−.051	−.181
8  Trout, Mike	LAA	CF	354	−.025	−.084	−.035	−.144
5  Smith, Cam	HOU	RF	361	−.036	−.081	−.045	−.162
T-9  Alvarez, Yordan	HOU	DH	420	−.017	−.080	−.035	−.132
11  Baldwin, Drake	ATL	C	319	−.021	−.075	−.035	−.131
T-12  Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	250	−.021	−.074	−.034	−.129
T-6  Semien, Marcus	NYM	2B	318	−.041	−.073	−.045	−.159
T-6  Seager, Corey	TEX	SS	219	−.044	−.072	−.043	−.159
T-12  Burleson, Alec	STL	1B	398	−.021	−.072	−.036	−.129
T-17  Judge, Aaron	NYY	RF	261	−.022	−.067	−.030	−.119
T-15  Witt Jr., Bobby	KC	SS	403	−.025	−.060	−.036	−.121
24  Baty, Brett	NYM	DH	328	−.015	−.060	−.031	−.106
21  Vientos, Mark	NYM	1B	254	−.023	−.059	−.030	−.112
14  McLain, Matt	CIN	2B	309	−.036	−.058	−.034	−.128
22  Merrill, Jackson	SD	CF	392	−.022	−.058	−.030	−.110
T-9  Butler, Lawrence	OAK	CF	274	−.041	−.055	−.036	−.132
20  Bichette, Bo	NYM	3B	413	−.030	−.052	−.033	−.115
19  Vargas, Miguel	CWS	3B	409	−.030	−.051	−.035	−.116
25  Guerrero Jr., Vladimir	TOR	1B	387	−.025	−.049	−.031	−.105
23  McNeil, Jeff	OAK	2B	294	−.037	−.040	−.030	−.107
T-15  Vierling, Matt	DET	CF	262	−.044	−.039	−.038	−.121
T-17  Hoerner, Nico	CHC	2B	420	−.051	−.034	−.034	−.119

Ranked by weighted on-base luck gap (xwOBA−wOBA). The most complete view of overall offensive bad luck.

Player	Team	Pos	PA	BA gap	SLG gap	wOBA gap	Luck gap
1  Wells, Austin	NYY	C	220	−.052	−.097	−.056	−.205
2  Rengifo, Luis	SD	3B	211	−.045	−.085	−.051	−.181
3  Nimmo, Brandon	TEX	RF	384	−.030	−.097	−.049	−.176
4  Julien, Edouard	COL	2B	247	−.032	−.097	−.045	−.174
5  Smith, Cam	HOU	RF	361	−.036	−.081	−.045	−.162
T-6  Semien, Marcus	NYM	2B	318	−.041	−.073	−.045	−.159
T-6  Seager, Corey	TEX	SS	219	−.044	−.072	−.043	−.159
T-15  Vierling, Matt	DET	CF	262	−.044	−.039	−.038	−.121
T-12  Burleson, Alec	STL	1B	398	−.021	−.072	−.036	−.129
T-15  Witt Jr., Bobby	KC	SS	403	−.025	−.060	−.036	−.121
T-9  Butler, Lawrence	OAK	CF	274	−.041	−.055	−.036	−.132
11  Baldwin, Drake	ATL	C	319	−.021	−.075	−.035	−.131
19  Vargas, Miguel	CWS	3B	409	−.030	−.051	−.035	−.116
8  Trout, Mike	LAA	CF	354	−.025	−.084	−.035	−.144
T-9  Alvarez, Yordan	HOU	DH	420	−.017	−.080	−.035	−.132
14  McLain, Matt	CIN	2B	309	−.036	−.058	−.034	−.128
T-17  Hoerner, Nico	CHC	2B	420	−.051	−.034	−.034	−.119
T-12  Ozuna, Marcell	PIT	DH	250	−.021	−.074	−.034	−.129
20  Bichette, Bo	NYM	3B	413	−.030	−.052	−.033	−.115
25  Guerrero Jr., Vladimir	TOR	1B	387	−.025	−.049	−.031	−.105
24  Baty, Brett	NYM	DH	328	−.015	−.060	−.031	−.106
T-17  Judge, Aaron	NYY	RF	261	−.022	−.067	−.030	−.119
21  Vientos, Mark	NYM	1B	254	−.023	−.059	−.030	−.112
22  Merrill, Jackson	SD	CF	392	−.022	−.058	−.030	−.110
23  McNeil, Jeff	OAK	2B	294	−.037	−.040	−.030	−.107

Source: Baseball Savant / Statcast • Min. 75 PA • 256 qualified batters • Data through July 13, 2026 • RotoWire.com

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The Five Unluckiest Hitters In Baseball Right Now

#1. Austin Wells, C, New York Yankees

Wells has a .205 composite gap -- the largest in baseball through July 13. His .178 batting average is ugly, but Statcast has him at a .219 xBA and .365 xSLG, a 91-point power gap. Wells isn't hitting it soft; balls just aren't finding holes. For fantasy managers who have been sitting him or shopping him in trade, his underlying contact quality says he's a buy.

#2. Luis Rengifo, 3B, San Diego Padres

Rengifo was released by Milwaukee and recently selected by the Padres off a minor league deal -- and for good reason. His .201 batting average masks a .252 xBA and .343 xSLG that suggest his contact quality is legitimately better than the results. He's one of three Padres in the top 25, part of a San Diego lineup that Statcast says is significantly underperforming its contact quality across the board.

#3. Brandon Nimmo, RF, Texas Rangers

With 384 plate appearances, this isn't a small-sample fluke. Nimmo's xSLG sits at .528 against an actual .414 -- a 114-point gap that ranks among the largest power-suppression mismatches for any full-time player on the list. He's one of two Rangers in the top 25 alongside Corey Seager (T-6), giving Texas a compelling "things should be better" storyline heading into the second half.

#4. Edouard Julien, 2B, Colorado Rockies

Julien is playing his home games at Coors Field -- which should inflate his numbers -- and he's still posting a .207 BA with a .286 slugging percentage. Statcast says his contact quality is worth a .239 xBA and .395 xSLG. A 109-point gap between expected and actual slugging in a hitter-friendly park is a screaming regression signal. Julien's second half is worth watching closely.

#5. Cam Smith, RF, Houston Astros

The Astros sophomore has logged 361 plate appearances and is still at .218 BA with a .350 slugging percentage. His xSLG is .462 -- 112 points higher than his actual. Smith is one of two Astros in the top 25 alongside Yordan Alvarez (T-9), which means Houston's lineup as a whole is leaving runs on the field due to bad luck rather than bad hitting.

None of those players are guaranteed to surge in the second half, but MLB odds for their player props could offer value if these players heat up.

Other Team Clusters Worth Noting

Beyond the Mets, six other teams have two players in the top 25:

The Yankees (Wells #1, Judge T-17) have baseball's unluckiest catcher and -- more surprisingly -- its best hitter. Aaron Judge's .600 xSLG vs .533 actual is not a massive gap by this list's standards, but for the sport's premier power hitter, that's meaningful. New York's second-half offense may be considerably better than its first-half results.

The Rangers (Nimmo #3, Seager T-6) are getting their top two bats robbed simultaneously. Seager's .353 actual SLG vs .442 xSLG is a 89-point gap for one of baseball's best shortstops. Two star hitters posting big luck gaps on the same team is a strong collective regression candidate.

The Astros (Smith #5, Alvarez T-9) continue a theme from earlier this season. Alvarez's .749 xSLG vs .634 actual is the biggest power gap for a bonafide star on the list. A lineup that already scares opponents will scare them even more when these numbers normalize.

The Athletics (Butler T-9, McNeil #23) are an underrated storyline. Lawrence Butler's .164 BA vs .235 xBA is one of the most severe contact-to-results disconnects on the list. Jeff McNeil, meanwhile, is actually hitting .282 but slugging only .444 against a .394 expectation -- a rare case where a guy making good contact is getting suppressed on power.

Other Names Worth Watching

Mike Trout (#8, LAA) sits at .144 gap with 354 plate appearances -- his .580 xSLG vs .493 actual is a significant gap for a player whose future value gets debated every season. Drake Baldwin (#11, ATL) is an interesting catcher case: he's actually hitting .295 but his .587 xSLG vs .543 actual suggests he should be slugging even more. And Bobby Witt Jr. (T-15, KC) at .121 gap is perhaps the most surprising name in the lower half -- the Royals shortstop is making contact worth a .465 xSLG and only posting .397 actual.

What This Means for Fantasy Baseball

We're past the All-Star break, which makes this the prime window to act on regression candidates. Sellers in fantasy leagues will be moving players based on first-half batting averages. This list identifies who's genuinely underperforming their contact quality vs. who's just struggling -- a crucial distinction at the trade deadline.

Wells (#1), Semien (T-6), and Julien (#4) are the strongest buy-low candidates with volume already established. Bichette (#20) and Vientos (#21) both have 400+ PA and legitimate second-half cases. Check the RotoWire MLB waiver wire for availability, and use the sortable widget above to filter by BA gap, SLG gap, or wOBA gap depending on your league's scoring format.

Methodology

Data sourced from Baseball Savant's Statcast expected statistics leaderboard through May 14, 2026. Minimum 75 plate appearances (301 qualified batters). Composite luck gap equals (xBA − BA) + (xSLG − SLG) + (xwOBA − wOBA). All 25 players verified active MLB roster as of July 13, 2026.

Christopher Boan contributed to an earlier version of this article.