This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Same Game Bets: Expert Bets and Player Props for Diamondbacks vs. Braves, July 19
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Arizona Diamondbacks 
vs. Atlanta Braves 
It's rare to score 13 runs and still lose, but somehow the Atlanta Braves pulled off the high-scoring disappointment yesterday. Atlanta currently holds a record of 61-32, so they're seldom searching for a rebound game. But, if one man can help them rebound and keep runs off the board, it's starting pitcher Charlie Morton.
Morton has been dealing of late, coming off seven scoreless innings against the Chicago White Sox in his previous outing, and posting a record of 5-0 with a 2.52 ERA in his last seven starts. Morton, also known as "Ground Chuck", has produced a 47.9 percent ground ball rate in 2023, tied for ninth-best among all starters that have logged at least 100 innings. Putting the ball on the ground is just what the Braves need after last night's laser show.
The Arizona Diamondbacks' lineup have a 45.2 percent ground ball rate as a team, the third-highest mark in the majors, only the Miami Marlins and Chicago White Sox put the ball in the dirt more often. The White Sox hit the most ground balls in the league and they played right into Morton's hands for that perviously mentioned seven scoreless innings on July 14th. Arizona could be in for a similar situation on Wednesday.
Morton's opposing starter will be Ryne Nelson. Nelson has been up-and-down for Arizona this year, but most of his success has come on the road, away from Chase Field. On the road, Nelson has recorded 2.68 ERA with a .233 opponent average and a 1.09 WHIP; at home, a disgusting 8.08 ERA with an opponent average of .357 and a 1.91 WHIP.
The good news for Nelson, he'll be on the road, the bad news for Nelson, he'll be facing Atlanta, which may be the deepest lineup in the MLB.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is batting .334, with 23 home runs, 58 RBI, 44 stolen bases, and a 1.005 OPS. The only thing keeping him from his first National League MVP Award is his own health. Acuna doesn't appear to be slowing down either, posting a .368 average and a 1.190 OPS in his last 15 games. Having a hitter like Acuna in the leadoff spot is a blessing for the rest of this lineup.
Matt Olson is a loud bat in the middle of this Braves order, producing yet another 30-homer season before August. Olson's .256 average isn't very eye-catching, but he is still just a .250 career hitter; so good for his standards. Always a basher of right-handed pitchers, Olson has a .272 average and a 1.010 OPS against righties, compared to a .209 average and .684 OPS facing lefties. Nelson is a righthander, so Olson could bring the thunder again tonight.
After a two-homer, seven-RBI performance on Tuesday, Austin Riley's bat may be heating up as well. Riley has recorded a 1.056 OPS since the All-Star break and has been a much better hitter at his home park, producing a .298/.360/.503 slash line at home compared to .230/.296/.410 slash line on the road. Another dangerous bat in the middle of this Atlanta lineup that Nelson will try to dodge.
Both the Braves and Diamondbacks went through a lot of pitchers in yesterday's 29-run slugfest, 13 pitchers to be exact. These two starting pitchers are going to need to log some innings in this one to save their respective bullpens. If one pitcher is to go deep in this game, it would more likely be Charlie Morton. That's why I'm backing Atlanta at Truist Park.
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MLB Best Bets for Diamondbacks vs. Braves
- Altanta Braves -1.5 (-118 FanDuel)
- Ronald Acuna 2+ Hits (+150 FanDuel)
- Austin Riley 1+ RBI (+100 FanDuel)
- Matt Olson 1+ RBI (-115 FanDuel)
