This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Wednesday, August 28
- Year-to-Date Record: 142-141-1
- Prior Article: 2-1 (+2.08 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. Summer temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Visit RotoWire's MLB odds page before placing any MLB bets on the best sports betting sites so you have the most up-to-date and competitive odds.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Kansas City Royals 
at Cleveland Guardians 
Baseball is a very long season. It is also a season of streaks. You want to try and catch a team at the beginning or middle of their streak and ride them until you see it starting to go the other way. The Royals are on an incredible run and for them to continue to be underdogs against the Guardians blows me away.
The Royals have won four in a row and seven out of nine in the season series. Michael Wacha and Tanner Bibee is about even on the starting pitching scale, but the Royals' offense is on another planet right now.
I will continue to ride them as the Royals are now tied with the Guardians for first place in the American League Central.
MLB Picks for Royals at Guardians
- Royals ML for 2 units (+130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Houston Astros 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
Taijuan Walker continues to be a pitcher I will gladly bet against every time out. He has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball since June 1st, with a 7.11 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. I question why he is even pitching for the Phillies as they have other options in Triple-A.
On the Astros' side, Spencer Arrighetti has shown improvements since June 26th. He has a 3.53 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 over his last 10 starts, with an average of 7.5 strikeouts per start.
Walker should not be even-money against the better teams in baseball like he is today. If this were the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, etc., I could see it because the Phillies could win the game in the later innings.
MLB Picks for Astros at Phillies
- Astros ML for 1 unit (-108 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Texas Rangers 
at Chicago White Sox 
The White Sox are 0-10, 1-19 and 4-26 in Chris Flexen's last 10/20/30 starts. He is the worst pitcher in baseball from a return on investment (ROI) perspective. There is no reason to not continue riding this streak.
It is a bit scary to back the Rangers with Jack Leiter on the mound, but that just shows how bad Flexen has been. Texas is still playing for pride, while the White Sox are just playing and looking at potentially having the worst record of all time.
MLB Picks for Rangers at White Sox
- Rangers -1.5 runs for 1.5 units (-108 FanDuel Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Royals ML for 2 units (+130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Astros ML for 1 unit (-108 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Rangers -1.5 RUNS for 1.5 units (-108 FanDuel Sportsbook)
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