This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Last article: 2-2, 0.02 RW Bucks
Season Record: 13-13-2, -1.59 RW Bucks
We were one Miles Mikolas out away from going 3-1 last time out, but we'll look to rebound Saturday with all-lefty matchups in each league. The first is one where I see the home team having the clear advantage, while the opposite is true for the evening game, which is the nightcap of a Dodgers-Cubs twinbill.
Tigers at Astros, 4:05 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Framber Valdez
The Pick: Astros 1st 3 innings -0.5 (+105 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Secondary Pick: Moneyline/total runs parlay — Astros/under 7.5 runs (+200 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Rodriguez has experienced a rocky road in his new Tigers digs, as he has a 5.33 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, surrendering a career-high 10.0 percent barrel rate and 43.8 percent hard-hit rate per Statcast. He faces a surging Astros team that's hit lefties hard at Minute Maid Park, posting a .357 wOBA, 146 wRC+ and .223 ISO. A couple talented Houston bats have also done well against Rodriguez, with Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman batting .385 and .417, respectively, against him during their careers.
Valdez has gotten off to another strong start this season, with an April 19 hiccup against the Angels where he gave up six earned runs his only blemish. The left-hander has three quality starts in his other four trips to the mound and fired three innings of one-run ball in the other outing during that sample. The Tigers have a 24.7 percent strikeout rate, .296 wOBA and anemic .079 ISO against left-handed pitching as well, furthering the case for an Astros early lead and eventual win.
Dodgers at Cubs, 7:40 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Anderson vs. Daniel Norris
The Pick: Dodgers 1st 5 innings -0.5 (-118 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Secondary Pick: Dodgers Over 4 Total Runs (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Anderson has been impressive in his first four outings with the Dodgers, generating a 2.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP across 17.2 innings while surrendering just one home run. The veteran lefty has done a good job with his control overall as well, so he's not buying himself trouble. The Cubs make for a strong target as well in the back end of Saturday's twinbill, having mustered a paltry .204 average, .260 wOBA, -4.0 wRAA and .102 ISO against southpaws at Wrigley while also generating a 25.6 percent strikeout rate in that split. What's more, current Chicago bats have a collective .207 average and .238 OBP against Anderson in 64 career encounters.
Norris will make a spot start after pitching his first six innings out of the bullpen, but the left-hander has a tall order in front of him. The Dodgers boast a .277 average and .353 wOBA versus lefties on the road, and Norris tends to pitch to a fair amount of contact, which could get him into early and frequent trouble against Los Angeles' dangerous lineup.
