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MLB Best Bets Today: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
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The Houston Astros take on the Tampa Bay Rays in the first game of this three-game series between teams that have gone different routes to end this season. These two teams played each other right after the trade deadline when the Astros weren't hitting much. The Rays won two out of the three games. The games totaled 3-2, 6-1 and 1-0, so there wasn't much offense in that series at all. The Rays are now 59-58 on the season after losing a couple of series in a row. They are 31-31 at home this season and a solid 30-33 against teams with winning records. They were playing well coming out of the trade deadline but they have started to fall off a bit since losing the first two games of each of their last two series then winning the last game of each series to avoid being swept. The Houston Astros are on fire right now – 62-55 at the top of the American League West division. They have won five games in a row after they swept the Red Sox and are 7-3 in their last 10 games. They are just above .500 at 30-29 on the road this season and don't have the best record against teams with winning records (25-31). As mentioned, these two teams took different paths at the trade deadline with the Rays selling and the Astros buying.
Framber Valdez is starting for the Astros today. He has been as consistent as it gets, per usual. He has been consistent for a very long time – at least 20 starts and an ERA under 3.50 for four straight years. That type of consistency is very hard to find with a pitcher. He is 5-0 with a 3.05 ERA in his last seven starts, which includes his last outing where he gave up a hit to the last batter of the game, keeping him from his second no-hitter. He is 11-5 with a 3.46 ERA this season and it seems like he is peaking right now. He has not faced the Rays this season as he did not pitch in the first series between these teams. Taj Bradley is starting for the Rays and he has pitched well overall this season, going 6-6 with a 3.07 ERA in 16 starts. He is 4-2 with a 2.18 ERA in his last seven starts but his past couple of starts have been much different than his starts before that. He allowed four runs in five innings to the Marlins and then gave up five runs in 4.2 innings to the Cardinals. In his three starts before that, he didn't allow a run in 20 innings and allowed just eight hits in that period. No pitcher will be able to keep that pace forever, so I think Bradley is just regressing to his mean a bit right now. He did not face the Astros the first time these teams played each other either.
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The Rays have been hitting lefties pretty well since the All-Star break, ranking ninth in the league in wOBA against lefties. However, if you look at who their hot hitters are right now, they have been better against righties in their past few games. That is because Josh Lowe and Brandon Lowe, their two hottest hitters, are both lefties. This is a good matchup for Houston. The Astros are ranked 14th in the league in wOBA against righties since the All-Star break, but they weren't hitting for a bit after the trade deadline, so their bats are starting to heat up again. The Astros are 12-9 since the All-Star break and 8-4 on the road while the Rays are 11-10 and 4-4 in the same span in those categories. However, a big factor in this game is the bullpen. Both teams are ranked in the top 10 in bullpen ERA since the break. But the Astros will have their whole bullpen rested and available after yesterday's blowout while the Rays will likely be without closer Pete Fairbanks and Manuel Rodriguez, who both pitched two days in a row.
BEST BET
Astros ML -126 vs. Rays (FanDuel Sportsbook)
