We went a perfect 4-0 in my PrizePicks article yesterday, and I'm looking to build on that momentum here. It always takes some time to get into the baseball groove, but the large sample size always makes it an easy transition as long as you pay attention on a daily basis. Grinding every day and paying attention to everything that goes on is really the key to success in DFS for MLB. That alone will put you ahead of the field, and it's always fun to see how these players' numbers vary and then eventually creep back to the mean. There's one pitcher who has a higher mean than anyone in the sport, so let's start there!
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Pitching
Tarik Skubal, DET at ATL ($10,700)
Skubal is always one of the front-runners for AL Cy Young, and he's a safe option on every DFS slate. This ace has gotten off to a "slow" start by his standards, but a 2.72 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 9.4 K/9 rate is still sensational. He's also got at least 28 DraftKings points in two of his last three outings and is a good option against anyone. Atlanta owns one of the best lineups in baseball, but most of these guys haven't seen Skubal in the last two years. That should benefit a stud like this, especially since Detroit is a -150 favorite in a game with an eight-run total.
Brandon Williamson, CIN vs. COL ($6,700)
This is a risky recommendation, but we always trust pitchers against the Rockies on the road. Colorado's road statistics are hard to believe, because they've been bottom five in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA and K rate on the road in five straight seasons. That's the Coors Field effect, and it makes any pitcher a worthy option against them. After struggling in the opener, Williamson has a 3.98 ERA. He also allowed one run or fewer in two of those four starts after posting a 0.55 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in his last stint throughout the minors. There are glimpses of something here, and we can't overlook the fact that he's a -155 favorite in this favorable matchup.
Top Targets
Yordan Alvarez, HOU ($6,500) vs. Chris Bassitt
We could use Alvarez against anyone, but he's impossible to fade against Bassitt. We'll talk about Bassitt more in the stacks section because he gives the platoon advantage to Alvarez. Yordan has opposite splits right now, but he still has a .453 OBP and 1.139 OPS against right-handers. That's scary considering his recent form: He's posted a .472 OBP and 1.249 OPS since going hitless in the opener. That's 28 games of absurd hitting, and he's worthy of this ridiculously high salary.
Elly De La Cruz, CIN ($6,200) vs. Tomoyuki Sugano
EDLC has always showcased superstar stuff, and it feels like we're finally stepping into that territory. This speedster ranks third on this slate with 11.1 DraftKings points per game. He's also scored at least 22 DK points in three of his last six outings while showcasing a 40-point ceiling in two of those. That's credit to his pristine power-speed combo, and we can't overlook the fact that he has a .357 OBP and .857 OPS against righties over the last three years. We'll talk about Sugano in the stacks section!
Bargain Bats
Ildemaro Vargas, ARI ($4,000) vs. Brandon Sproat
Why aren't more people talking about Vargas? This guy should be one of the key storylines through the opening month because he's performing at an MVP level at 34 years old. A journeyman like this likely won't maintain these averages, but his .367 AVG and 1.105 OPS are truly tremendous. Those are averages you see from a $6K player, so seeing him at $4K is awesome. Squaring off with Sproat only adds to his intrigue, with the Brewers righty registering a 6.45 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. If you want to stack Arizona, Corbin Carroll ($6,000) and Ketel Marte ($5,600) are the best pairings with Vargas.
Brady House, WAS ($3,000) vs. David Peterson
I'd be lying if I said I knew anything about this guy at the beginning of the season, but he's been a breakout player for the Nats. Washington has actually stuck him in their cleanup spot whenever they face a lefty, and it's easy to understand why. House has a .424 OBP and .891 OPS against southpaws this season. In addition, he's averaging 8.2 DK points per game across his last five fixtures. That doesn't bode well for Peterson, with the Mets lefty posting a 5.06 ERA and 1.65 WHIP this year. The Nats are one of the most affordable stacks of the day, with James Wood ($6,100), Daylen Lile ($4,600) and Luis Garcia ($2,900) looking like good options next to House.
Stacks to Consider
Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles (Chris Bassitt): Alvarez ($6,500), Christian Walker ($4,400), Carlos Correa ($4,200) and Isaac Paredes ($4,000)
The Stros have struggled in the standings, but it's not because of their offense. Houston has one of the best lineups in baseball, ranked third in OBP and fifth in runs scored. That's far from shocking given the talent, and it's unlikely that a guy like Bassitt slows them down. The Baltimore pitcher has a 6.75 ERA and 2.06 WHIP in the worst season of his career.
We have to kick-start our stack with Yordan, but Walker is a better value. He's got a .378 OBP and .966 OPS across his last 27 outings in what's developing into a bounce-back season. Correa is the projected leadoff hitter, compiling a .375 OBP and .792 OPS. Paredes is projected to bat third, and he has a 1.114 OPS across his last six outings.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies (Tomoyuki Sugano): De La Cruz ($6,200), Sal Stewart ($5,300), TJ Friedl ($3,500) and Matt McLain ($3,200)
We could stack against the Rockies every day. This team was dead-last in ERA and WHIP last season, and they're the favorites to do that again when seeing this rotation. Adding Sugano to it certainly won't help because he's surrendered 38 homers since the start of last season en route to a 4.47 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. That's bad news in a hitter's park, with Cincy projected to score five runs in this game.
Elly is the straw that stirs the drink for this offense, but Stewart has been one of the biggest surprises this season. He's got a .385 OBP and .987 OPS so far this season while averaging 11.6 DK points per game. Friedl is the projected leadoff hitter, averaging 9.8 DK points per game across his last six outings. McLain is the cheap option at $3,200, maintaining a 1.079 OPS across his last six fixtures.
