Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, June 4
MLB 2026 betting record: 15-22-1, -8.58 units
I have four predictions for Thursday's nine-game MLB slate, including a pair from the nightcap between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Check out what I'm expecting from the NL West clash, plus get my betting picks on two other games happening this evening.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions and Best Bets
Ryne Nelson under 17.5 outs (-122 FanDuel)
Dodgers to win (-132 FanDuel)
This is a big number for Ryne Nelson to reach in a difficult home matchup against the division-leading Dodgers, who top the majors in wRC+. Los Angeles is especially hard on right-handers, ranking No. 1 in homers and OPS, and is in the top five in both strikeout and walk rate.
Nelson has given the Diamondbacks length recently, hitting the six-inning mark in four of six starts in May. But that came after six consecutive outings falling short of 17.5 outs.
Additionally, the righty has pitched poorly at home (5.97 ERA) and struggled to keep the ball in the yard, leading to the second-highest HR/9 rate among qualified pitchers. Nelson entered his fourth season with some swing-and-miss upside, but the Ks and whiffs haven't been there for the hard-throwing righty and he remains a below-average strikeout arm.
Without strikeout stuff to rely on, the Dodgers should make the extreme flyball pitcher pay at hitter-friendly Chase Field. Behind lefty Justin Wrobleski (2.87 ERA) and one of the top bullpens in baseball, this is a comfortable moneyline price to back the Dodgers, who have the best run differential in MLB.
Arizona is 4-8 in Nelson's 12 starts. And while the Diamondbacks have hit southpaws well, the team has struggled offensively, ranking 28th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and well below average over the last month. To win this game, Nelson is going to need run support.
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Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Predictions and Best Bets
Shota Imanaga under 17.5 outs (+128 FanDuel)
Wrigley Field looks like an excellent place to hit tonight, leading to a 10.5 total across multiple sportsbooks. That's the highest total of the evening. Wind is expected to blow out hard in the Windy City, making this a suboptimal on-paper matchup for Cubs starter Shota Imanaga.
While Imanaga gets an Athletics team that has plenty of swing-and-miss and is worse vs. lefties, the southpaw has been terrible lately. The Athletics have several big home run threats, forcing Imanaga to be sharp to avoid a blowup inning when he's been anything but in recent starts. Over his last three, the 32-year-old has allowed 20 runs on 21 hits. He's served up multiple homers in each outing and eight total bombs over that stretch.
Imanaga is a flyball pitcher with an elevated HR/FB rate. He's allowed at least one homer in eight of 12 starts, and it seems like a foregone conclusion that the ball will leave the yard while he's on the mound tonight. If runners are on when that happens, getting to this number is going to be challenging, especially if his swing-and-miss stuff plays up against the Athletics and drives up his pitch count.
Though Chicago used seven relievers last night, Mother Nature has made this a tough get-right spot for Imanaga, creating some real plus-money value on this outs prop.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Predictions and Best Bets
Under 0.5 first-inning runs (-115 BetRivers)
Chris Sale has been dominant, allowing more than two earned runs just once in his 11 starts. It has led to a 2.01 ERA that ranks fourth among starters. He's tough on any team and has a plus matchup against the Blue Jays, who are 23rd in runs per game and tied for the fourth-lowest wRC+ vs. southpaws.
Sale at home is the reason the Braves are the biggest favorites of the day, reaching as high as -250 to win.
Toronto will use opener Mason Fluharty, who's on a hot stretch and has been dynamite vs. left-handed batters. Fluharty has allowed one run since the start of May, a span of 16 appearances. Left-handers are batting .136/.235/.136 off him, producing six hits in 51 plate appearances.
Fluharty will have to deal with a difficult top of the order that includes right-handed power bat Ronald Acuna Jr., but the Toronto reliever should see at least one LHB in the first inning. With righty Chad Dallas expected to assume bulk innings on Thursday, it's entirely possible that Fluharty gets multiple lefties in the first frame (though they would be threats in Michael Harris and Matt Olson).
That said, Fluharty and Sale are both arms I'm happy to bet on.
MLB Picks Recap
- •Ryne Nelson under 17.5 outs (-122 FanDuel)
•Dodgers to win (-132 FanDuel)
•Shota Imanaga under 17.5 outs (+128 FanDuel)
•Jays/Braves no-run first inning (-115 BetRivers)
