MLB NLDS Best Bets: Padres vs. Dodgers

MLB NLDS Best Bets: Padres vs. Dodgers

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Best Bets Today: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

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San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers are taking on the San Diego Padres in Game 3 of this five-game National League Division Series (NLDS) between rivals. Rivals wouldn't be saying enough about these two teams after the first two games. There has been plenty of controversy already in this series. In the first inning of the last game, Jurickson Profar robbed Mookie Betts of a home run and held the ball looking into the crowd for a bit. It wasn't until Betts was rounding second base that Profar held the ball up to show the umpire he caught it. That was just the start. Fernando Tatis Jr. was hit by a pitch after his first two at-bats and after he had already hit a big home run. Later in the game, Jack Flaherty struck out Manny Machado and told him to go sit down in the dugout. That incited some more trash-talking that continued throughout the next inning. At one point, the game needed to be stopped because Dodgers fans were being unruly. There were baseballs and trash thrown onto the field and at players.  The game was stopped for a good amount of time and some Padres players were upset. Eventually, the game resumed. The Padres took things personally because they started running up the score, finishing with six home runs – a Padres playoff record.  At some point in the game, Machado threw a ball out of play to the ball boy but whipped it a bit too hard. It drilled the dugout fence right in front of Dave Roberts, narrowly avoiding bouncing over the fence and going into the Dodgers' dugout. There is obviously some history there with Machado, who played for the Dodgers for a season. In my opinion, he did whip it at the dugout a bit hard, but at the same time, baseball players use that fence as a bit of a backboard when throwing balls out of play and the balls usually go to the home team's ball boy when that happens. Either way, the Dodgers sent the video to MLB to be reviewed, so it will be interesting to see if he gets fined or something more. These teams clearly do not like each other.

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Michael King gets the start against the Dodgers today in his second career postseason start and second start of this postseason. He dominated in his first start against the Braves, pitching seven shutout innings with 12 strikeouts. Interestingly, he has faced the Dodgers four times already this season, so the hitters have seen him plenty. His first two starts didn't go so well, while his most recent two starts were great. He faces Walker Buehler, who is making his first start of this postseason. Buehler dealt with injuries all season long after coming back from a major injury that caused him to miss last season. He faced the Padres twice and had one good start and one bad start, but those hitters have seen him enough that they know him at this point, too. Buehler hasn't pitched in the postseason since 2021. He struggled that postseason, allowing 12 runs in 18.1 innings. Both these teams have very good bullpens behind their starters as well, and neither team will be afraid to use them, especially coming off the off day. I wouldn't be surprised to see these relievers come in very early, to be honest.

The Padres dominated the Dodgers in the regular season, winning eight of the 13 games before these teams split the first two playoff games in Los Angeles. I don't see the Padres letting off the gas anytime either, especially after what transpired in Game 2. Padres fans will be amped up. I am not sure if this series will even make it back to Los Angeles.

Best MLB Bet Today

Padres ML Dodgers (-150 at Hard Rock Bet)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John Bollman
I am a data scientist and baseball analyst who grew up in Bethesda, Maryland before I moved to South Florida about five years ago. I went to Tulane University in New Orleans for both undergraduate and graduate school, and worked for the Tulane Baseball team as a Quantitative Analyst while working towards my Masters degree in Biostatistics and Data Science. I worked for the Toronto Blue Jays in their Player Development and High Performance departments out of graduate school and I am the founder and owner of my company Baseball with Bollman.
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