MLB FAAB Factor: Welcome to the Second Half!

This FAAB article is in addition to the AL and NL FAAB articles that run Sunday. Bids are based on a $100 FAAB budget. Throughout the season, this column will have two goals:

1. Identify FAAB targets for fantasy managers in leagues with Thursday FAAB.

2. Offer a preview of FAAB targets ahead of Sunday's columns.

It's the end of June, which means pretty much every team has reached 81 games or at least will by the time the calendar flips on Monday. We made it. Take a deep breath, because the next three months will be the baseball equivalent of a roller coaster. Let's ride!

This being the midway point in the season, it's fun to project how players could finish the season if their numbers were just doubled. Shohei Ohtani is having an MVP-caliber season even without any mound work, as he's on a pace to set career highs with 50 home runs and topping 120 runs and RBI each. Not bad for a player who has hit second most of the season before moving up to the leadoff spot since Mookie Betts got hurt. He's even on pace for more than 30 steals. Yup, the move to LA has agreed with him.

Aaron Judge at 30 home runs would have a shot at toppling the 62 dingers he hit in 2022 to set a new AL record. At 77 RBI, he's on pace for 154 RBI, which would obliterate the already-gaudy 131 he registered that legendary season. 

Seth Lugo, Chris Sale and Ranger Suarez are all on pace for 20-win seasons, and whoever said they predicted that needs to show a betting slip with any of those players' names on it. It would be fun to double the 130 strikeouts that Garrett Crochet has punched out thus far, but his manager has already talked about slowing down the lefty, who at 94.1 innings, is already well on his way to more than doubling his top innings output of 54.1 in 2021. 

What does the second half have in store? Trade deadlines and plenty of magic. Hopefully more offense and fewer injuries that will lead to more fantasy fun. Let's ride!

Starting Pitcher

David Festa, Minnesota Twins (6%)
Fantasy managers have a good news/bad news scenario with Festa, who is getting the call-up to the big leagues today to face the Diamondbacks in the desert. The good news is that he's struck out 87 hitters in just 59.2 innings at the Twins' Triple-A St. Paul affiliate. The bad news is that he has walked 24 batters in that small amount of innings, and has a 1.42 WHIP along with a pedestrian 3.77 ERA. 

The No. 99 prospect, according to MLB.com, Festa is a 6-foot-6 righty whose fastball tops out around 96 mph. Tall pitchers can have bouts of wildness – hello, Randy Johnson – so that could be an issue early on. But if Festa does well in his debut, he could stick in a rotation that is dealing with injuries. FAAB: $2

Luis Severino, New York Mets (52%)
It sure feels like a long time since 2018 when Severino went 19-8 with 220 strikeouts in 191.1 innings for the cross-town New York Yankees. That was also the last season he started more than 20 times – he pitched just seven times total from 2019-21 with injuries.

His fastball back up to a respectable 95.8 mph, Severino has thrown at least five innings in every one of his 15 starts for the Mets in 2024. In four June starts, Severino has allowed one run or less in three turns, sporting a 2.73 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 26.2 innings for the month. In his last start, he threw six shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. FAAB: $5

Kyle Gibson, St. Louis Cardinals (42%)
Discerning fantasy managers may want to throw out the clunker start that Gibson put up against a still-formidable Braves lineup on June 26, in which he allowed four runs and walking five in four innings. It was his first loss since April 13, and he was pitching on 12 days' rest courtesy of back tightness, a rainout and a few days on the bereavement list. He was understandably thrown off the routine that starters crave.

Gibson had thrown quality starts in three of his previous four starts, striking out 27 in 24.2 innings. He has a date with the Pirates in Pittsburgh in his next outing. FAAB: $4

Landon Knack, Los Angeles Dodgers (15%)
I will personally attest to this young man knowing how to pitch. I've seen it, and the only thing that kept sending him down to the minors was the numbers game of veterans being healthy in front of him. With recent injuries to Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler, and Clayton Kershaw still a ways away from returning, that's not necessarily the case right now.

Knack has yet to allow more than two runs in any of his five big-league starts this season. In his return to the majors on June 21, the East Tennessee State product twirled five shutout innings against the Angels. Knack is slated to start in San Francisco on June 28, so him pitching in that big ballpark could just continue his solid work in the majors. FAAB: $5

Relief Pitcher

Aroldis Chapman, Pittsburgh Pirates (41%)
How many fantasy analysts, heck, even league mates, say not to watch closers when they toe the rubber in the ninth inning. Somehow a one-run victory is easier to swallow when just looking at the stat line with two walks in a scoreless inning to get the save. That's what Chapman may do more than once as he subs in for David Bednar, who is out with an oblique strain. 

Chapman has struck out 45 batters but also walked 27 in the same number of innings. Not good, amigo. He's still throwing heat – 97.8 mph average on his fastball – but with the control issues, the saves might be hard to swallow if it's going to do harm to a fantasy team's WHIP. Some are saying that Bednar's IL stay may not be long, but obliques are tricky and can take time, so Chapman could walk his way into some saves. FAAB: $9

Catcher

Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies (10%)
With five home runs in his last nine starts – he sat out just two games – Goodman is making the most of his time in the starting lineup. He has 10 RBI and a .992 OPS over those starts. Goodman also qualifies at first base and outfield, but that catcher eligibility is so vital. Hard to put him anywhere else in fantasy lineups. FAAB: $2

Patrick Bailey, San Francisco Giants (31%)
In his last eight games dating back to June 16, Bailey is batting .355 with a .942 OPS. The Giants are paying heed, as he has been in the lineup in the prime spots at third and fourth in the order. Even though the San Francisco lineup is far from formidable, Bailey hitting in prime real estate and staying there because he's so good defensively is a combination for fantasy goodness. FAAB: $3

First Base

Spencer Horwitz, Toronto Blue Jays (24%)
With a .348 average and two home runs – both on June 23 – Horwitz is opening eyes beyond Toronto and the fantasy community. He's also hitting in the two hole in the Blue Jays' lineup, as Toronto tries to find a foothold in the AL East race. He's also eligible at second base. FAAB: $3

Jhonkensy Noel, Cleveland Guardians (4%)
Nice start to the MLB career for Noel, as he homered in his first big-league at-bat against the Orioles on June 26. Only one way to go from that high. With Noel listed at 250 pounds, the corner outfield is not calling his name. He did hit 18 home runs at Triple-A with a .937 OPS, so it could be worth finding out if Noel has staying power. He turns 23 on July 15. FAAB: $4

Second Base

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Toronto Blue Jays (29%)
A gain in rostership of 17 percent for Kiner-Falefa is almost completely attributed to a 10-game hitting streak in which he has two home runs, six runs and five RBI. His triple slash of .378/.400/.541 is impressive, and the Blue Jays have moved him into the leadoff spot in the lineup in three of the last four games. He's not much of a threat to run (three steals), but if he keeps hitting anywhere near his recent rate, Kiner-Falefa will be a part of fantasy rosters because he qualifies at four positions. FAAB: $3

Colt Keith, Detroit Tigers (12%)
Highly touted rookies coming into the season sometimes need some consideration midway through the year. Keith started 10 straight games from June 14 to 26 and hit .359 with two home runs and a stolen base. Sadly, he had just four runs and four RBI in that hot run, though he did hit second in the Tigers' lineup in his last six starts. 

Maybe Keith just needed some time to figure things out at the big-league level. He could be worth a flier, in case he can deliver more numbers in the second-half. FAAB: $5

Third Base

Mark Vientos, New York Mets (34%)
With six home runs and 14 RBI in 20 June games, Vientos has made the hot corner his own for the Mets. He's hitting a solid .278/.346/.556 in the month, his bat getting warmer with the summer weather here. 

Vientos is still hitting primarily sixth or seventh in the lineup, though he's done some damage there like in the June 25 game when he took Gerrit Cole deep twice. With the Mets back up to .500 (39-39) and in the fight for the Wild Card, Vientos could keep being a difference maker as the games get more meaningful. FAAB: $5

Willi Castro, Minnesota Twins (74%)
Castro has a higher rostership number than I usually include in this space, but his recent hot run might make that percentage seem low. He's 17-for-45, hitting .378 with an OPS well north of 1.000 in his last 11 games. He has two homers and eight RBI, scoring 10 runs. 

The switch-hitter has been hitting atop the Twins' lineup about half the time, as he's hitting .356 against lefties and .240 versus right-handers. Need I say eligibility at four positions? Spend up if he's available in your league. FAAB: $9

Shortstop

Masyn Winn, St. Louis Cardinals (38%)

Runs scored is such an underappreciated category, especially with so many hitters selling out for power. Winn has risen to the top of the Cardinals' lineup and has scored nine runs in the last seven games. All out of the leadoff spot. In fact, Winn has hit first in every game for St. Louis since June 4. 

Running at an average sprint speed of 28.7 – 88th percentile – Winn is a good bet to start running on the base paths the more he stays at the top of the St. Louis lineup. FAAB: $7

Outfield

Heston Kjerstad, Baltimore Orioles (28%)
He's playing! We're not seeing the minor-leaguer with the gaudy numbers come up just to grab splinters on the pine. Kjerstad actually started two of the first three games after getting called up on June 24. The left-handed hitter has started against right-handers, batting seventh and fifth in his two games in the lineup.

The Orioles remain one of the best offenses, leading all of baseball in runs, homers and slugging percentage. I've been recommending getting any cheap piece to this lineup, and Kjerstad may be finally getting some run. FAAB: $5

Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (42%)
Speaking of actually getting on the field, in 23 Minnesota games during June, Buxton has been in the lineup for 20 of them. From June 11 to 25, Buxton has been sizzling at a .372/.400/.721 slash line. He has three home runs, 10 RBI, nine runs and has even stolen a pair of bases in that sample. 

So much of Buxton's production has been tied to him actually getting on the field. He's healthy now, so fantasy managers can take advantage and cash in while he's still hot. FAAB: $8

Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies (4%)
Don't let that .196 sub-Mendoza batting average scare you. Toglia has been much better of late and is starting primarily at first base – shout out to the multiposition eligibility zealots. June 14 to June 25, Toglia has four home runs, nine RBI and 10 runs scored. He even has an .888 OPS that should make fantasy managers stand up and pay attention.

The Rockies need to figure out whether Toglia, still age 25 until Aug. 16, is a part of their future. And this weekend they play in Chicago's South Side against the lowly White Sox. That's followed by seven games at Coors Field against the Brewers and Royals, with a four-game series in Cincinnati's launching pad after that. Talk about a favorable schedule for a young slugger. FAAB: $9