I live in Denver, so I'm going to go ahead and say that the Mets-Rockies game is going to get postponed. It just started snowing really heavily here, and it seems unlikely the field will be cleared for this game. I was keen to recommend hitters from that game, but because of my meteorology expertise, we're going to fade that one ahead of time. We still have eight other games making up the main slate, so let's get started by talking about some of the arms!
Pitching
Will Warren, NYY vs. TEX ($9,300)
Warren started the year in the rotation because of the injuries to Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon, but they can't keep him out of it now. This right-hander is amid a breakout season, registering a 2.39 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 11/0 K/9 rate. That's led to Warren averaging 28 DraftKings points per game across his last three outings, while posting a 2.30 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 12.0 K/9 rate at home. Those numbers would be in play against anyone, but Texas has been terrible. The Rangers rank 23rd in wOBA, 24th in xwOBA, 27th in runs scored and 26th in K rate. Warren also dominated them last year, throwing 10.2 scoreless innings across two starts while striking out 15 batters.
Cole Ragans, KC vs. CLE ($8,800)
The surface numbers from Ragans have been far from impressive, but this guy has ace stuff. Despite posting a 5.29 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, Ragans has a 4.32 xERA and 4.22 SIERA. Those numbers are actually worse than our projections because we're talking about a guy who had a 3.51 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 rate between 2023 and 2025. We expect him to return to those averages shortly, especially since he has a 1.06 WHIP and 15.1 K/9 rate across his last two starts. A home matchup against Cleveland is far from concerning, with the Guarians ranked 21st in wOBA and 24th in runs scored. In two starts against them last season, Ragans averaged over 22 DK points per game.
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Top Targets
Elly De La Cruz, CIN ($6,200) vs. Colin Rea
De La Cruz has always had the stuff to be an MVP candidate, and it feels like everything is coming together. The Cincy shortstop ranks fourth among all regulars with 10.8 DraftKings points per game. His power-speed combo is what makes him such an elite DFS option, because he's on pace for a 40-40 season. De La Cruz has also clobbered righties throughout his career, collecting an .859 OPS against them over the last three years. That doesn't bode well for Rea, who is registering a 4.41 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Not to mention, De La Cruz has a 1.242 OPS and 19 at-bats against Rea. Nathaniel Lowe ($3,300) is a cheap player who's an amazing stack next to EDLC. He has a 1.130 OPS across his last 10 outings and a 1.070 OPS against righties this year.
Moises Ballesteros, CHC (vs. Brady Singer) $4,200
We usually recommend a higher-end player for this spot, but Ballesteros has been Chicago's best bat this season. This catcher has been hitting second recently, collecting a .375 OBP and .951 OPS this year. That's not far off from his .858 OPS last season, and it's clear he's a fixture in the heart of this lineup. We'll discuss that more in the stacks section, but we also love Ballesteros' splits against right-handers. This catcher has a .384 OBP and .936 OPS against righties since his call-up.
Bargain Bats
Adolis Garcia, PHI ($3,000) vs. Jeffrey Springs
Not much about Garcia's season will get you excited to use him here, but seeing him at $3K against a lefty is a worthy risk. He's still projected to hit cleanup and has the platoon advantage against Springs. That's massive since Springs has an 8.36 ERA across his last three starts, while Philly is projected to score five runs in this game. Those variables make Garcia a good value at just $3K, especially since he has a .314 AVG and .824 OPS across his last 10 outings. This guy was $5K at times in his prime a few years ago and shouldn't be overlooked despite his recent struggles. Alec Bohm ($2,800) also has sensational splits against southpaws throughout his career, and these two make for one of the sneakiest cheap stacks of the day.
Trevor Larnach/Matt Wallner, MIN ($3,200/$2,500) vs. Miles Mikolas
The Twinkies are our favorite stack of the day, and we'll dive into that more in the stacks section. One of the reasons we love them is because they have these cheap lefty bats. Larnach and Wallner should be right in the heart of their lineup, with Larnach amassing a .474 OBP and .924 OPS against righties this year. Wallner is right there with him, tallying a .335 OBP and .812 OPS against right-handers over the last three years. Those are quite the splits from super-cheap players, so let's get into their matchup with Mikolas!
Stacks to Consider
Minnesota Twins at Washington Nationals (Mikolas): Byron Buxton ($5,900), Ryan Jeffers ($4,700), Luke Keaschall ($4,200), Larnach ($3,200) and Wallner ($2,500)
After discussing those cheap Minny bats, it's time to dive into Mikolas. This 37-year-old journeyman is approaching the end of his career, totaling an 8.23 ERA and 1.72 WHIP this season. That's no surprise with the lack of strikeout stuff, and it's even scarier since he hasn't yet reached the sixth inning this season.
Buxton is the best player in this Twins stack, homering 11 times over his last 19 outings. Jeffers has been hitting third or fourth every day for the Twins, producing a .421 OBP and .977 OPS across his last 19 outings. Keaschall has struggled this season, but he has the platoon advantage against Mikolas while posting a .378 OBP across his last nine outings.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds (Brady Singer): Seiya Suzuki ($5,400), Nico Hoerner ($4,900), Ian Happ ($4,500) and Ballesteros ($4,200)
I actually believe Singer is a solid pitcher, but he has these stretches where he loses his stuff. That's what's happening right now, with Singer accumulating a 5.57 ERA and 1.73 WHIP so far this season. We expect him to be better than that, but we need to stack against him until we see otherwise. Chicago is a scary lineup, too, sitting first in OBP and third in runs scored.
Suzuki has been the straw that stirs the drink for this lineup recently, producing a .417 OBP and .985 OPS so far this year. Hoerner is one of the leaders at second base with 9.7 DK points per game. Happ has the platoon advantage against Singer, accruing a .423 OBP and .942 OPS against righties this year.
