We're a little more than a month into the season, and it feels like we're finally getting a read on who these teams are. The statistics through the opening month can be fluky for many reasons, but it's hard to argue with a month-long sample size. There will inevitably be some regression over the next month, but adjusting to what these teams have become is one of the most important facets of DFS. It's also important to know when players change, so let's start with a pitcher who's made more improvements than anyone else this season.
Pitching
Jose Soriano, LAA vs. CWS ($9,600)
Could Soriano be in the running for AL Cy Young? It's a bit early to call that, but the numbers speak for themselves. The Angels righty has allowed four total runs through seven starts, sporting a 0.84 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 rate. He obviously won't keep that ERA below 1.00, but he also has a pristine 5-1 record. That's what you're looking for in DFS, especially in a matchup like this. Chicago sits bottom five in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA and K rate since the start of last season. In his last two starts against the White Sox, Soriano has struck out 11 batters across 12 innings while allowing just three runs.
Davis Martin, CWS at LAA ($7,800)
We rarely recommend two players in the same game, but Martin continues to be undervalued for DFS purposes. This guy has developed into Chicago's best starter, compiling a 1.95 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in a breakout campaign. He's also allowed just one run in three straight starts, with the most recent one happening against LA. Martin scored at least 22 DraftKings points in all of those and shouldn't have any issues here since the Angels have the worst K rate in baseball for the second straight season.
Top Targets
Max Muncy, LAD ($4,400) vs. Ryan Weiss
Muncy had a bit of a health scare last week, and it might be why his salary is lower than it should be. This slugger has a .425 OBP and 1.182 OPS across his last 20 outings. That's one of the best marks in baseball during that span, and his RBI opportunities should be plentiful in the heart of the best lineup in baseball. That's why he's a key piece to this stack against Weiss, but we'll get into that in the stacks section. Not to mention, Muncy has maintained a .398 OBP and .916 OPS against righties over the last three years.
Jake Bauers, MIL ($4,400) vs. Kyle Leahy
Bauers quietly has been one of the Brewers' best bats this season. He's been hitting between third and fourth over the last month, tallying a .354 OBP and .812 OPS across his last 19 outings. Bauer's most valuable asset is his splits, as he's amassed a .351 OBP and .841 OPS against right-handers this year. Leahy is a lackluster righty, too, registering a 5.52 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Milwaukee is a cheaper stack than you'd expect, with William Contreras ($4,500) and Garrett Mitchell ($3,700) looking like solid options next to Bauers.
Bargain Bats
Moises Ballesteros, CHC ($3,700) vs. Chase Petty
It's hard to understand why Ballesteros remains so affordable. This DH has been hitting second for the Cubs over the last week, and that's usually where you stick your best hitter. Ballesteros has been playing like just that, totaling a .415 OBP and 1.122 OPS across his last 22 outings. He also has an OPS above 1.000 against righties this year and faces one who has a 19.50 career ERA and 3.50 WHIP. That's a small sample size, but his 6.03 ERA and 1.56 WHIP at Triple-A since last season show it's no fluke. The Cubs are one of the best stacks on this slate, with Pete Crow-Armstrong ($4,700) and Michael Busch ($3,400) both having the platoon advantage against Petty.
Nathaniel Lowe, CIN ($3,100) vs. Edward Cabrera
Lowe has been a journeyman over recent years, but he always has these week-long stretches where he looks like an All-Star. That's what he looks like in Cincy, collecting a .345 AVG and 1.337 OPS across his last eight outings. The Reds have him batting fifth amid that surge, and we also love that he has a .407 OBP and 1.118 OPS against righties this year. Cabrera is a solid pitcher, but his 4.56 ERA and 1.44 WHIP across his last four starts are nothing to be concerned with since it's not far from his career norms.
Agree with these recommendations? Give them a spin with various combinations of other players in RotoWire's MLB DFS Lineup Optimizer.
Stacks to Consider
Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros (Ryan Weiss): Shohei Ohtani ($6,400), Kyle Tucker ($5,400), Freddie Freeman ($5,100) and Muncy ($4,400)
Not many stacks stood out today, but the Dodgers should destroy this Houston pen. While Weiss is projected to be the main guy, this Astros bullpen ranks dead-last in MLB with a 6.20 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. That's horrifying against the best lineup in baseball, and Weiss has some woeful numbers as well. He has a 6.65 ERA and 1.98 WHIP after posting a 7.43 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in his last stint at Triple-A. A bullpen game is a trend that works for some teams, but it's unlikely to work for a team with the worst bullpen in baseball.
Ohtani has to be the first piece of an LA stack. He was the highest-scoring player in DFS last season and has a .408 OBP and 1.066 OPS against righties over the last three years. Tucker has tremendous splits, too, totaling a .388 OBP and .893 OPS against right-handers in that same span. Freeman is right there with them, tallying a .382 OBP and .877 OPS against them since 2023.
