We have had some massive slates recently, so we were due for a small one. There are only six games for this Thursday's schedule, and only half of them make up the main slate. Having only six teams leaves us with very few options, but these are always fascinating slates to dissect. With that said, the top two pitchers are in superb spots, so let's start there!
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Pitching
Paul Skenes, PIT vs. CHC ($10,000)
On such a short slate, it's pretty much impossible to fade a pitcher like Skenes. One silver lining is that this ace is coming off one of the worst starts of his career, so his rostership percentages might be lower than they should be. That stinker against Toronto is the outlier because we're talking about a guy who has a 2.13 career ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He also scored over 21 FanDuel points in nine straight starts before that shelling and had at least 27 FD points in 27 of 32 starts last year. You simply won't find that consistency from anyone, especially on such a short card. Squaring off with Chicago sounds scary, but Skenes has a 2.94 ERA and 11.5 K/9 rate in seven career starts against them. We've included Skenes as the top pitcher because he should be the most expensive.
Spencer Arrighetti, HOU at TEX ($10,600)
The Astros have struggled mightily, but Arrighetti has been a pleasant surprise. This guy showed some promise two years ago before an injury, but he's currently having the best season of his career. This right-hander has a 1.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.8 K/9 rate through eight starts. He's also allowed one run or fewer in all but one of those, throwing 12.1 scoreless innings coming into this matchup. A tussle with Texas is far from terrifying, too, with the Rangers ranked 20th in K rate and 26th in runs scored. Arrighetti annihilated them in their only matchup two weeks ago, allowing one hit across 7.1 scoreless innings.
Top Targets
Oneil Cruz, PIT ($4,000) vs. Colin Rea
Cruz always had the skills to be a superstar, and he's starting to step into that stratosphere. This Statcast freak has 11 homers and 16 steals through 52 games and is on pace for about 35 homers and 50 steals. That's why he's one of the top-scoring players in DFS, posting even better splits against right-handers. Cruz has compiled a .774 OPS against righties over the last three years. We're not concerned about a matchup with Rea either because the Cubs righty has a 4.83 ERA and 1.37 WHIP so far this season. If you want to stack the Pirates, Brandon Lowe ($3,800) and Bryan Reynolds ($3,200) are good pairings with Cruz.
Taylor Ward, BAL ($3,000) vs. Patrick Corbin
I've always loved to use Ward whenever he gets a matchup against a subpar southpaw. That's just what he has here because Corbin has collected a 5.34 ERA and 1.50 WHIP since 2020. It's hard to believe he has averages like those across nearly 1,000 innings, but it should allow Ward to feast with his sensational splits. Ward has a .371 OBP and .871 OPS against left-handers since 2023. In 17 at-bats against Corbin, Ward has compiled a .421 OBP and 1.003 OPS.
Bargain Bats
Jesus Sanchez, TOR ($2,700) vs. Chris Bassitt
Sanchez is always a sexy pick when the Blue Jays face a right-hander. This slugger typically hits either third or fifth in those circumstances, but it's no surprise when peeking at his splits. Sanchez has a .299 AVG and .803 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season. He's also scorching right now, sporting a .440 AVG and 1.224 OPS across his last nine outings. The matchup isn't too shabby either, with Bassitt posting a 5.51 ERA and 1.67 WHIP so far this year. Vladimir Guerrero ($3,000), George Springer ($2,800) and Daulton Varsho ($2,800) are also good options against Bassitt.
Tyler O'Neill, BAL ($2,400) vs. Corbin
Many people probably forget just how good O'Neill was a few years ago because of all the recent injuries, but this was once one of the most feared hitters in baseball. This slugger had a .331 OBP, .483 SLG and .814 OPS between 2021 and 2024. Injuries have prevented him from maintaining those averages, but he's still capable of going off in a matchup like this. We'll talk about Corbin below, but O'Neill has an .883 OPS against lefties over the last three years. That wasn't even part of his dominant stretch, so O'Neill could be a sneaky pick here.
Stacks to Consider
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (Corbin): Gunnar Henderson ($3,400), Pete Alonso ($3,300), Adley Rutschman ($3.300), Ward ($3,000), O'Neill ($2,400)
We already discussed Corbin's numbers in the Ward write-up, but it's truly remarkable how consistently poor he's been. It's one thing to have a 5.34 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, but to do it across nearly 1,000 innings is truly appalling. His 3.86 ERA this season might not look too bad on the surface, but that won't last since he's got a 5.38 xERA and 1.40 WHIP.
We mentioned two players that we like, but you can stack the O's in a multitude of ways. While Henderson hits from the left side, he has better splits against lefties this year. Alonso has the platoon advantage from the right side, amassing a .460 OBP and 1.172 OPS in 52 at-bats against Corbin. Rutschman also has a .364 OBP and .822 OPS against southpaws since 2023.
