You know it's going to be an interesting slate when over half the pitchers are below $8K. That suggests it could be a high-scoring night, but there are still some great pitching options available. One of my favorite pitchers is actually sitting at $6,500. It's funny how that can happen in DFS, so let's go ahead and start things there!
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Pitching
Kyle Bradish, BAL at LAA ($8,500)
I highlighted Bradish last week, and he delivered one of the best performances of his career. The righty had a career-high 12 strikeouts across 7.2 innings in a masterpiece against the Mariners. That's the form we've seen in the past, with Bradish providing a 2.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 27 percent K rate over the last three years. Recording 12 strikeouts against Seattle puts him in line for another big strikeout game here because the Angels have the worst K rate in baseball. They're also missing their best bat in Mike Trout, and Bradish allowed one run across 6.2 innings in his only career matchup against the Halos.
Anthony Kay, CWS vs. CLE ($6,500)
The season-long numbers are nothing special, but we need to take a deeper look at the game log for Kay. The southpaw struggled mightily across his last three starts, but anyone would against the Dodgers, Yankees and Phillies. We're willing to overlook that because Kay compiled a 1.95 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across his previous six starts. He also surrendered two runs or fewer in nine of 13 starts this season, and we're not concerned with Cleveland. The Guardians rank 27th in wOBA and 28th in runs scored, but just lost two of their best hitters recently (Jose Ramirez/Angel Martinez).
Top Targets
Willson Contreras, BOS (vs. Ryan Feltner) $5,700
It's been a struggle for the Sox this season, but it's not Contreras' fault. This guy has quietly had one of his best seasons, generating a .383 OBP and .916 OPS so far this year. He's been even better recently, registering a .395 OBP and 1.000 OPS since April 25. That's a sensational stretch, and we don't want to fade him in Coors Field against the worst pitching staff in baseball. We'll discuss that more in the stacks section!
Willi Castro, COL (vs. Jake Bennett) $5,000
This Red Sox-Rockies game is projected to be the highest-scoring game of the day, with these teams expected to combine for 11 runs. That makes both teams sexy stacks, with Castro looking like the best value for Colorado. Castro will bat leadoff or second for the Rockies and has a .429 OBP and .917 OPS across the last month. His splits are stupendous too, sporting a .347 AVG and .842 OPS against southpaws this season. We also love Hunter Goodman ($5,700) with the platoon advantage in his favor, hitting 10 dingers over his last 22 outings.
Bargain Bats
Taylor Ward, BAL (vs. Sam Aldegheri) $4,400
Ward has been woeful in his debut season with the O's, but he always thrives against left-handers. Baltimore bats him leadoff in those circumstances, collecting a .381 OBP and .875 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor over the last three years. He's also showing flashes of ending his recent slide, posting a .398 OBP and .811 OPS across his last 18 outings. That won't bode well for a pitcher like Aldegheri, and we'll dive into that more in the stacks section!
Austin Martin, MIN (vs. Eric Lauer) $3,200
Not many people know much about Martin, but Minnesota fans do. He always hits leadoff whenever the Twins tussle with a lefty. It's easy to see why because Martin has maintained a .418 OBP and .800 OPS against left-handers this year. Those are absurd averages for such an affordable player, and Lauer is far from a scary southpaw. He has a 5.37 ERA and 1.31 WHIP this year while recording just two quality starts all season. Byron Buxton ($6,200) and Royce Lewis ($3,600) also hit from the right side, if you want to stack against Lauer.
Stacks to Consider
Boston Red Sox at Colorado Rockies (Feltner): Jarren Duran ($5,700), Contreras ($5,600), Wilyer Abreu ($5,000), Masataka Yoshida ($3,500)
This should be a high-scoring series, with Boston projected to score more runs than any other team on this slate. That's easy to understand since the Rockies rank last in wOBA and xwOBA this season, while pitching in the most hitter-friendly environment in baseball. Feltner has been one of their better pitchers, but a 5.18 career ERA and 1.42 WHIP show how poor this pitching staff is.
Duran is the leadoff hitter for the Red Sox, accruing a .271 AVG and .838 OPS against righties over the last three years. Abreu should be right in the heart of this lineup, amassing a .791 OPS against right-handers since his call-up. Yoshida is a nice punt play at just $3,500, producing a .285 AVG and .762 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor since 2023.
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels (Aldegheri): Pete Alonso ($5,500), Gunnar Henderson ($5,200), Ward ($4,400), Tyler O'Neill ($2,400)
Baltimore has been a slight disappointment this season, but this lineup still has plenty of talent. They're averaging 7.4 runs across their last 18 wins, after dropping 12 runs on Sunday. That shows just how deep this lineup can be, and Aldegheri is an amazing matchup. The Angels lefty has a 5.59 career ERA and 1.84 WHIP after allowing six runs in his last start.
Alonso was a candidate to be my top suggestion on this slate because he has 10 homers over his last 30 fixtures while posting a .370 OBP and .911 OPS in that span. Henderson hits from the left side, but he's been one of the highest-scoring shortstops since his call-up. O'Neill is too cheap at $2,400, tallying a .344 OBP and .883 OPS against lefties over the last three years.
