FanDuel's main slate Saturday features seven games and gets underway at 7:10 p.m. EDT. It's incredibly top-heavy in the pitching space, which we'll immediately dive into. From an odds perspective, the Dodgers (-240) are the slate's biggest favorite (shocker), but this game also has one of the highest implied totals at 9.0. There are a handful of 8.5s, somewhat surprising this early in the year when pitching is typically ahead of hitting. In addition to the Dodgers, the Astros, Braves and Brewers have implied totals of five or greater.
Pitching
Tyler Glasnow, LAD vs. ARI ($9,900): This is a really, really gross slate for pitching. I don't enjoy paying up this early in the year as we don't know workloads, but I think we're forced to choose between the strikeout upside of Glasnow or the additional inning from Bryan Woo ($10,400) you may get. Woo has the softer matchup and the better ballpark, but I'll try to ride with the swing and miss of Glasnow, who fanned 11 in five innings in his final spring outing. Even if he has only a 20.0 percent K rate against the Diamondbacks. It comes with a .226 BAA and .701 OPS.
Chad Patrick, MIL vs. CWS ($8,000): The White Sox struck out 20 times in their season opener. Sure, they faced flamethrowing Jacob Misiorowski, with whom Patrick will never be confused, but that's kind of what this lineup is. It's got some pop, and a ton of swing and miss from top to bottom. Patrick averaged slightly above a K per nine last year. I wouldn't bank on a quality start, but five innings, five or more Ks and a potential win should work at this price.
Reid Detmers, LAA at HOU ($6,500): Detmers is the opposite of the Glasnow pay up play. If we don't trust pitching and it's a woeful slate, maybe we just punt? Detmers has shown swing-and-miss stuff over the last three years, never being under 10.2 per nine. The Astros lineup is off to a terrible two-game start, and I had them as a stack Friday night. Swinging from one end of the spectrum to the other across days is a terrible idea, but I also noted it's possible it's just an aging lineup that isn't going to be elite. If you can find the right bats you feel comfortable with and want to spend freely there, roll the dice here.
Top Targets
I believe the Brewers will be one of the more obvious stacks on this slate, so perhaps we mini-stack them with two bats and try to differentiate elsewhere. Christian Yelich ($3,500) and/or William Contreras ($3,300) would appear to be the top options and neither will break your budget.
Keeping with yesterday's trend of "which Dodger do I play today," we'll role with some BvP plays at this early juncture. I will openly say I loathe how priced up essentially this entire lineup is. But Freddie Freeman ($3,600) is 8-for-15 with a homer off WBC hero Eduardo Rodriguez, and Teoscar Hernandez ($3,500) is 10-for-36 with three homers.
Bargain Bats
Yesterday, this section featured some rookies who are still underpriced. That's still a valid strategy. But surely Chase DeLauter ($2,900) isn't homering for the third straight day, right? Kevin McGonigle ($2,500) has a far softer matchup against Randy Vasquez.
But we can also pivot to some cheaper veterans who are far less sexy and thus will come with lower roster percentages. Mike Yastrzemski ($2,700) enjoyed a decent spring, particularly in the power department and offers a cheap entry point into Atlanta's lineup.
If looking lower in the Brewers lineup, there are a plethora of choices. Andrew Vaughn ($2,600) offers power upside with a minimal floor. Sal Frelick ($2,900) and Brice Turang ($3,100) seem to have more stability, and Garrett Mitchell ($2,500) looks like the primary beneficiary of Jackson Chourio's injury.
Stacks to Consider
Royals vs. Reynaldo Lopez (Braves): Bobby Witt ($4,000), Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,200), Maikel Garcia ($3,100)
Pasquantino went hitless Friday, but that was an LvL matchup with ace Chris Sale. Lopez won't be confused as that, and with a LvR matchup, I'd assume Pasquantino hits a slot higher in the lineup Saturday. Witt and Garcia combined to go 3-for-7 and I simply don't trust Lopez a lick. He's had elite stuff for his entire career but hasn't been healthy for two years, and late spring claims say a mechanical tweak has brought back velocity? Yeah, not buying that.
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