I found some success in Tuesday's 10-game slate, the first time this season I had a larger player pool to sort through, and what do the scheduling gods give me today? Yep, a reduced five-game main slate with first pitch at 7:45 p.m. EDT with four of the five games starting almost two hours later. Great for Friday viewing pleasure, terrible for my options here.
The good news is offense shouldn't be hard to find. We've got the A's at home against the Astros with a slate-high 10-run total, and two other games sit at 9.0. The bad news is that suggests pitching is weak, and that's absolutely the truth. Only 10 to choose from, and six are priced under $8,000. It should make for diverse roster builds; pay up or completely punt.
Keep an eye on rain in Kansas City that could further reduce this slate. Assuming they play, wind can help the offenses.
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Pitching
Bryan Woo, SEA at LAA ($10,400): I'm certainly siding with paying up for a sure thing on the bump Friday, particularly in cash games. Woo went six innings in his season debut, fanning nine while throwing 83 pitches. He should be in line for a potential win and quality start here, so the Ks will determine if we get 3x or potentially more. The Angels have hit him reasonably okay, posting a .263 BA and .714 OPS, but with a massive 28.9 percent K rate.
Eduardo Rodriguez, ARI vs. ATL ($7,500): Rodriguez carried his WBC momentum over to the regular season, returning 4x this number in his opener against the Dodgers. Atlanta erupted for 17 runs Thursday, but it was "only" 12 on nine hits before facing catcher James McCann in the ninth. They've been a heavy platoon lineup to open the year, which means Rodriguez likely gets a lineup that includes Eli White and Jonah Heim on the back end, not exactly Murderer's Row. I'll take my chances he can cool down the offense some while also eating innings for a taxed bullpen.
Chad Patrick, MIL at KC ($7,300): I can't go all the way to the bottom with Luinder Avila ($5,700) as he went only three innings in a start at Triple-A to open the year and hasn't regularly started games in the minors since 2024. Patrick was far from impressive in his debut, needing 74 pitches to get through 4.1 frames against the White Sox. This is a better lineup; the betting odds are nearly identical in terms of win percentage and runs scored, so we're not expecting anything special. Perhaps Reid Detmers ($7,500) is the better punt play with more strikeout potential, but his price rose $1,000 after his last outing. Let's just hope Patrick can flirt with a 3x return while our offense cooks.
Top Targets
Jeffrey Springs has fared well against the Astros lineup (6-for-37, .162, .406 OPS), but is anyone fading them here? It's enough for me to not go full-on stack. The LvL matchup does little to push me away from Yordan Alvarez ($4,000), but perhaps Jeremy Pena ($3,400) is the safer or better play at the reduced number. He hasn't faced Springs before.
I'm almost always going to be in favor of a mini-stack of Corbin Carroll ($4,100) and Ketel Marte ($3,600). Neither are off to elite starts and neither have great history against Grant Holmes, but the Atlanta starter shouldn't be feared. He allowed three runs and a homer in five innings, and pitching with a partially torn UCL, he's a candidate for reduced velocity at any point.
Bargain Bats
I don't want to go too heavy on Brewers bats given the rain threat, and the questionable innings we'll see from Avila. If this turns into a bullpen game, who knows how Milwaukee responds as far as pinch hitting early for favorable matchups. A secondary piece or to their deep, yet unspectacular, lineup makes sense. Garrett Mitchell ($3,100) and Joey Ortiz ($3,000) are both getting on base at .400 or better, giving us run scoring chances, while Jake Bauers ($3,000) offers a bit more pop. Wait and see the lineup card and the forecast closer to first-pitch, and any can help round out your build.
Keep an eye on Arizona's lineup. Jordan Lawlar ($2,400) is underpriced based on form (6-for-18, homered last night). But if he's unavailable after being hit in the wrist last night, Tim Tawa ($2,100) can offer a complete punt play to help pay for pitching.
As a BvP one-off, Jo Adell ($2,900) is 5-for-9 with three homers off Woo.
Stacks to Consider
Athletics vs. Cristian Javier (Astros): Nick Kurtz ($4,000), Shea Langeliers ($3,900), Brent Rooker ($2,800)
Javier got lit up in his first start, allowing six runs in 4.2 innings, striking out just one. That came at home against the Angels; he had a 7.11 road ERA last year and is now pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. Kurtz is off to a terrible start, but the price hasn't decreased a ton, so maybe he won't be as popular as he should be. Langeliers is scorching, giving us contact as a floor and a nice power ceiling. Rooker profiles similarly to Kurtz, but offers salary relief and a third bat likely in the top four. There's minimal BvP exposure to consider here, so let's hopefully sit back and let balls fly in Sacramento.
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