For a mid-week slate, Tuesday's nine-game offering at FanDuel is somewhat reduced. Three arms are priced at $10,600 or higher, but they aren't names you'd typically feel great about paying up for. Joe Ryan at $11,200 led the way, but he's been scratched due to illness. After the shaky big salaries, Sonny Gray at $9,200 is next... and in Coors Field. Suffice to say this will be an interesting slate.
Red Sox-Rockies gives us a slate-high 10.5 run total, while Guardians-White Sox is the low point at 7.0. The Dodgers (-172), Red Sox (-162) and Orioles (-156) are the slate's biggest favorites, but none of them carry massive numbers. Rain could reduce this slate, as New York and Minnesota look like potential postponement spots. We could see slightly favorable winds in San Francisco, Anaheim and Denver as well.
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Pitching
Sean Burke, CWS vs. CLE ($8,800): This game is essentially a pick 'em, and Burke is the cheaper side of the low 7.0 run total, giving me some confidence on a slate with plenty of ambiguity. Burke has gone for at least 31.0 FDP in four of his last five, averages a strikeout per inning on the season and Cleveland is tied for the sixth-lowest wRC+ against righties at 93. Burke has been marginally worse at home and is a fly ball pitcher (45.0 percent). Winds currently appear calm, but need to be confirmed.
Shane Baz, BAL at LAA ($8,400): Baz is coming off a season-high nine strikeout performance and gets an Angels lineup that's fanning 24.9 percent of the time against righties, giving him some upside at this price. Pair that with the Orioles being reasonably heavy favorites and Los Angeles' 3.9 run expectancy, and we've got what looks like a clear cut lead option for this slate.
German Marquez, SD vs. ATL ($7,400): If I wasn't blunt enough in the intro, this slate is grotesque from a pitching perspective. Marquez isn't even confirmed as the starter, and could face pitch limits if and when he's activated from the IL. Plus, he's been lit up at home for 15 runs (seven homers) in just 13.0 innings. It's simply a necessary evil to consider a minimal salary against a slumping offense that's averaging 3.0 runs over its last six games. If Griffin Canning gets the nod here, all bets are off and this could flip the other way into a high-scoring game, but as is, Atlanta's lineup is injury depleted and the bottom of the order isn't producing, and hasn't hit Marquez well.
Top Targets
Willson Contreras ($3,700) seems like one of the more obvious plays. He boasts a .436 wOBA, .311 ISO and 176 wRC+ against lefties and will play in Coors Field. It's more a question of how many plate appearances he gets against Sean Sullivan, who hasn't made it more than four innings in his two starts, both of which came on the road.
Nick Lodolo has a 7.27 ERA (5.49 xFIP) at home. Off an 0-for-4, three strikeout night, Jackson Chourio ($4,200) looks like an obvious bounce-back candidate. It's lefties that are taking Lodolo to town (.460 wOBA, 1.088 OPS), though, so perhaps Brice Turang ($4,000) or Christian Yelich ($3,600) are solo contrarian plays. There's no BvP success here, and they are too pricey to stack.
Bargain Bats
Aaron Civale has been much better on the road, and has had success against a Giants' lineup that hasn't been good for much of the year; perhaps he's in play on the mound. He's also allowing a .415 wOBA and .965 OPS to lefties overall, something San Francisco is flush with. No stacking, but take your pick of Bryce Eldridge ($3,300), Luis Arraez ($3,100), Rafael Devers ($3,000) or Jung Hoo Lee ($2,900) based on budget and positional needs.
JR Ritchie doesn't have enough innings to fully back the splits, but a .377 wOBA against lefties can offer some interest. Jackson Merrill ($3,100) or Gavin Sheets ($2,800) should log two at-bats minimum against him atop the order before Ritchie inevitably gets pulled.
Cubs-Mets seems stackable on both sides, but with weather concerns they can't be centerpieces. Keep Alex Bregman ($2,800) and Bo Bichette ($2,800) in mind, and monitor the forecast.
Stack to Consider
Orioles at Angels (Ryan Johnson): Pete Alonso ($3,700), Gunnar Henderson ($3,300), Taylor Ward ($3,100)
Johnson doesn't figure to be long for this game, but the Angels bullpen ranks 25th with a 4.61 ERA, so that shouldn't stop us from using any and all pieces of the Orioles lineup. When on the mound, Johnson is allowing a .436 wOBA to lefties and .499 to righties, allowing five homers to 72 batters faced. Henderson has five hits over his last two and three homers in his last 13. Ward has homered in consecutive games and has the revenge narrative against his former team. I don't love Alonso's price, but he's homered in five of his last 13. See how Baltimore lines up behind these three, as there should be some value in their No. 4 and No. 5 hitters.
Reds vs. Brewers (Brandon Sproat): Sal Stewart ($3,600), Elly De La Cruz ($3,500), Blake Dunn ($2,800)
Sproat doesn't have overwhelmingly targetable splits, but he's given up at least three runs in six of his last seven starts and a homer at the same rate. We've got a nice discount on De La Cruz as he makes his return from the injured list, and Dunn potentially atop of the order offers another bargain. With JJ Bleday in a funk, Stewart makes for a fine third option as a power bat hitting cleanup.
