That was one of my best weekends of the season for my season-long leagues. I'm not exactly sure what happened, but it felt like all of my pitchers had big performances. Good weeks and bad weeks are inevitable over the course of a full 162-game schedule, and it's fascinating to which performances creep back to what was anticipated at the beginning of the year, and which don't. There's something I love about the unpredictable nature of baseball over short periods and how things become more settled as sample sizes expand. Just a random thought, but DFS should be approached the same way. With that in mind, let's take a look at these pitchers on this Monday card.
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Pitching
Peter Lambert, HOU vs. SEA ($7,800)
As someone who lives in Colorado, it's shocking to see what Lambert is doing in Houston. He was one of the worst pitchers in baseball with the Rockies, but switching to the 'Stros after a stint in Japan has changed everything, with Lambert posting a 2.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in a breakout campaign. His recent form is even more absurd, as he's amassed a 1.04 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across his last three starts. That sort of run is impossible to overlook in a home matchup with Seattle because the Mariners sit 18th in runs scored, 19th in OBP and 24th in K rate.
Roki Sasaki, LAD vs. SF ($7,200)
This is a risky recommendation, but the matchup alone makes Sasaki a worthy gamble. He faces a San Francisco team that sits last in runs scored, OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. That's why they're only projected to score four runs, with Sasaki entering this sexy matchup as a -180 favorite. That means we'll use this talented pitcher no matter how poor his peripherals might be. It's also a Giants lineup that's never seen Sasaki, so he could be a sneaky option as one of the cheapest pitchers on the board.
Top Targets
Zach Neto, LAA ($5,200) vs. Joey Cantillo
There are a few guys who always slug southpaws, and Neto is one of them. This shortstop has a .297 AVG and .897 OPS against left-handers over the last three years. He's also averaged over 25 homers and 30 steals per 140 games played, so the stuff is there for him to be an All-Star. Neto enters this matchup averaging 11 DK points per game across his last four fixtures and shouldn't be faded here. He matches up with Cantillo, who's compiled a 4.43 FIP and 1.37 WHIP. Jo Adell ($3,900) and Jorge Soler ($3,700) also have the platoon advantage against Cantillo, and Adell hit two dingers Sunday.
Trent Grisham, NYY ($4,200) vs. Brandon Young
Grisham has been a massive bump for New York at the top of their lineup against right-handers. Aaron Boone hits Grisham leadoff whenever the Yankees face a righty, and he provided a .364 OBP and .869 OPS against them last year. We're starting to see glimpses of that in May, with Grisham generating a .333 OBP and .833 OPS across his last seven outings. Seeing a Yankees leadoff hitter at $4,200 makes him a worthy option against anyone, but NY has the best matchup on this slate! We'll discuss that more below.
Bargain Bats
Josh Naylor, SEA ($3,600) vs. Lambert
We rarely recommend a hitter against one of our pitchers, but what makes Naylor so intriguing is how cheap he is right now. He plummeted towards $3K after one of the worst opening months in MLB history, but he was always going to regress to the mean. We say that because he had 20 homers and 30 steals last season while posting a .341 OBP and .809 OPS over the last three years. We're seeing that positive regression recently, as he's registered a .386 AVG and .869 OPS across his last 18 outings. Naylor also has the platoon advantage against Lambert.
Travis Bazzana, CLE ($3,400) vs. Caden Dana
It feels like top prospects frequently get off to slow starts and then see their salary dip. That's what's happened to Bazzana, but it might just be a matter of time before he's above $4K. We say that because he had a .391 OBP and .826 OPS throughout his minor-league career. He also had 14 homers and 25 steals across 135 games, so a 20-30 season could be in play. What's really piqued our interest is his recent form, as he's tallied a .400 OBP across his last eight games while recording seven steals. We'll talk about the matchup with Dana below.
Stacks to Consider
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (Young): Aaron Judge ($6,500), Ben Rice ($6,000), Cody Bellinger ($5,100), Grisham ($4,200)
The Yankees have possessed one of the best offenses since I was born in 1991, and they're always a safe stack. Having an MVP like Judge to build around will do that, with the big man posting a .448 OBP and 1.196 OPS across his last 26 outings. Rice is also having a remarkable season, sporting a .427 OBP and 1.128 OPS. Bellinger is hot like the rest of these guys, totaling a .426 OBP and 1.083 OPS across his last 20 games.
All of those hitters have the platoon advantage against Young outside of Judge, which could be bad news for a pitcher like this. The Orioles righty has a 4.35 ERA and 1.45 WHIP so far this season. He also has a 5.74 career ERA and 1.52 WHIP, with the Yankees projected to score nearly five runs in this game.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels (Dana): Jose Ramirez ($5,600), Chase DeLauter ($4,600), Angel Martinez ($4,300), Bazanna ($3,400)
Dana is the only pitcher on this slate that I don't know much about, but that's always a sign to stack against him. He's the cheapest pitcher on this slate and has yet to make his debut this year. It's easy to see why because Dana has a 7.17 career ERA and 1.62 WHIP across 10 career starts at this level. Those are atrocious averages, but his 6.06 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at Triple-A aren't much better.
This Guardians team isn't one that we stack too often, but they're one of the most affordable ones out there. Ramirez is the most expensive because he's been a top-5 DFS player over the last nine seasons. DeLauter has been a semi-breakout for Cleveland, collecting a .378 OBP and .905 OPS so far this year. He's also got a .528 OBP and 1.205 OPS across his last eight outings. Martinez is amid a slump right now, but he has a .787 OPS against righties this year while amassing a .767 OPS across his last 26 fixtures.
