Each team has a series worth of games in the books, but we're still learning new things about them every day. The opening month is the best time to sit back and observe because so much has changed since last season. It's nearly impossible to use data this early, but mixing it with past results can help develop theories for the future. What's interesting about this slate is that the back end of rotations are coming into play, so it could lead to a high-scoring day. With that in mind, let's dive into this first Monday card of the season.
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Pitching
Clay Holmes, NYM at STL ($8,200)
Holmes hasn't had an ERA above 3.60 since 2019, registering a 3.23 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 rate in that span while primarily working as a reliever before transitioning to starting in 2025. That's over 400 innings of success, and it makes him way too cheap against a subpar St. Louis lineup. The Cardinals were 23rd in wOBA and xwOBA last season but might be even worse this year. In two matchups with the Cards last season, Holmes recorded a quality start in both while averaging over 16 DraftKings points per game.
Cody Ponce, TOR vs. COL ($7,600)
I'm probably not the only baseball nerd who got into the KBO during COVID, but Ponce was a stud there last season. He set a season record with 228 strikeouts for Hanwha, recording a 1.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in one of the greatest KBO seasons of all time. That's why Toronto went out and signed him, and Ponce's turnaround didn't look like a fluke during spring training. He finished the preseason with a 0.66 ERA while striking out 12 batters across 13.2 innings. That doesn't bode well for the Rockies, who have been the worst road offense in baseball for years. All of that has Ponce entering this matchup as a -250 favorite.
Top Targets
Nick Kurtz, ATH ($5,300) vs. Bryce Elder
Kurtz is my favorite play of the day and the best bet to homer on this slate. The A's first baseman compiled a .383 OBP, .619 SLG and 1.002 OPS in his big-league debut last season. He's gotten off to a slow start this year, but this is a great opportunity for the slugger to get going. Kurtz has a .434 career OBP and 1.133 OPS against right-handers. This is also one of the worst righties on this slate, and we'll dive into that in the Stacks To Consider section.
Jarren Duran, BOS ($5,300) vs. Lance McCullers
Duran had a down year with the Sox last season, but a bounce-back feels inevitable. This guy averaged 18.5 homers, 29 steals and 98.5 runs scored over the last two seasons. He's gotten off to a nice start to 2026 by averaging over 10 DK points per game. Our favorite variable in this recommendation is the matchup with McCullers. Not only does Duran have a .880 OPS against righties over the last three years, but McCullers had a 6.51 ERA and 1.81 WHIP last season.
Bargain Bats
Addison Barger, TOR ($3,900) vs. Tomoyuki Sugano
Barger had some of the best hard-hit metrics in baseball last season, and he should thrive in the heart of the Toronto lineup whenever they face a right-hander. He closed last season with a .782 OPS across his final 120 games after generating an .808 OPS throughout his minor-league career. Those numbers could be his floor, because Barger had a .480 SLG and .788 OPS against righties last year while posting a 51 percent hard hit rate and 116.5 mph average exit velocity. Those tell us that he's just scratching the surface of becoming an elite hitter, and we could see some of that against the worst pitching staff in baseball.
Christian Walker / Isaac Paredes, HOU ($3,900 / $3,700) vs. Ranger Suarez
We're going to take a contrarian play here and recommend Astros bats against Suarez. The lefty looked lost during spring training, allowing 17 runs across 13.2 innings between the WBC and spring training. That's scary since his fastball wasn't touching 90 mph, and a right-heavy Houston lineup could touch him up. Walker is the first option, as he's posted a .193 ISO and .783 OPS against lefties during his career. He also has a .409 OBP and .909 OPS in 18 at-bats against Suarez. Paredes also has the platoon advantage here, providing a .350 wOBA and .798 OPS against lefties in his career.
Stacks To Consider
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Colorado Rockies (Sugano): Vladimir Guerrero ($6,000), George Springer ($5,500), Kazuma Okamoto ($4,200) and Barger ($3,900)
This feels unfair to recommend the Blue Jays against the Rockies. This is one of the top offenses in baseball, and they're facing the worst pitching staff in the league. Adding Sugano to this rotation was another head-scratching decision, with the righty registering a 4.64 ERA and 1.33 WHIP last season. He also surrendered 33 dingers, so it'd be hard to imagine he keeps the ball in the yard here with Toronto projected to score over five runs.
Vlad is an easy option as the best piece of this stack. The slugger has a .390 OBP and .895 OPS since 2024. Springer just had a bounce-back season for the Jays, averaging nearly 10 DraftKings points per game. Okamoto has the platoon advantage against Sugano and has gotten on base six times already to begin his MLB tenure while homering Sunday.
Athletics at Atlanta (Elder): Kurtz ($5,300), Brent Rooker ($5,000), Shea Langeliers ($4,800) and Lawrence Butler ($3,800)
We usually like to use the A's at home, but they're one of our favorite options against Elder. This righty had a 4.72 ERA during spring training after posting a 5.59 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over the last two seasons. That makes him one of the worst pitchers on this slate, and he's an even juicier target since he has a 6.88 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in Atlanta during his career.
We have to kickstart our A's stack with Kurtz, but Rooker is right there with him. Rook has reached 30 dingers in three straight seasons while totaling a .509 SLG and .853 OPS during that span. Langeliers has been the hottest catcher, and maybe the hottest hitter, in the league during opening weekend, homering three times already after bombing 60 across the last two seasons. Butler is the final piece as a power-speed threat, tallying 17 homers and 19 steals against righties alone last year.
