MLB Barometer: Barrel Rate Risers and Fallers

The first few weeks of the Barometer have primarily been focused on pitching, because some of the key evaluation metrics on the pitching side tend to stabilize more quickly. This week will be the first time shifting the full focus to hitters, as barrel rate stabilizes at around 50 batted ball events. Most everyday players are either at or near that mark, though hitters in a timeshare, or those who have missed any time due to injury, are still likely below that threshold.

The primary purpose of this week's edition will be to identify some of the hitters with the biggest increases and decreases in barrel rate and dig further into the reasons for success or struggles in the early going. Some of the players with the highest barrel rate increases have been discussed widely around the fantasy industry, so this article will primarily try to identify other barrel rate surgers. Among the most discussed players are Oneil Cruz and Jordan Walker. Cruz has always had a standout barrel rate and most of his gains through the first two weeks of the season have come in the form of improvement against lefties and batted-ball luck — both of which have obviously come in a very small sample. That isn't to say his breakout isn't real, but it is very likely too early to declare that he's finally reaching into his untapped potential based on the path his improvement has taken.

Walker's case is a bit more interesting. He ranked in the 99th percentile of bat speed in 2025 and had a solid, if unspectacular, 10.9 percent barrel rate. The former has remained consistent, and the latter has spike to 26.5 percent early this season. While impressive, Walker's pulled flyball rate is just 5.9 percent, suggesting his ability to reach his power potential consistently is still lacking. How that number changes over the next few weeks will likely have a large impact on his potential to maintain at least some of his prolific start.

Finally, Gunnar Henderson was included as a "riser" in the original version of this article, but upon further review, his hot start to the year isn't as clear as his results suggest. Through 17 games and 81 plate appearances, Henderson has a .309 ISO, six home runs and three stolen bases, but he's also sold out for power. His strikeout rate has spiked to 28.4 percent, his flyball rate to 45.2 percent, and his batting average has taken a corresponding fall to .222. Henderson's hot start is still arguably more encouraging than not, but it's not clear just how elite he'll be as a fantasy contributor as the season progresses.

With that, we'll move into the primary portion of the article, analyzing four risers and four fallers based on their early-season barrel rate.

Risers

Michael Harris – 16.3 percent barrel rate vs. 9.1 percent in 2025

Harris failed to make hard contact consistently in 2025, which was particularly puzzling given his track record at a young age. It remains unclear what went wrong, but he appears to have corrected any issues for 2026, as he already has seven barrels on 43 batted ball events. Harris' hot start from a batted ball perspective is particularly interesting because his surface stats have yet to align. He's hitting only .241 across 61 plate appearances with two home runs and one stolen base. However, his .304 xBA, .606 xSLG and .485 xwOBAcon all suggest better results are on the way.

Harris could present a true buy-low opportunity due to his struggles in 2025, which have seemingly carried over into 2026. The only concerning portion of his profile early on is that he still doesn't lift the ball consistently (32.6 percent flyball rate, 5.5 degree average launch angle), something that has limited his power production throughout his career. Expect better results regardless, but Harris could become a potential early-round selection in 2027 and return huge value in the current campaign if he adds any loft to his swing.

Cam Smith - 15 percent barrel rate vs. 6.9 percent barrel rate in 2025

One major negative in Smith's profile as a prospect was concern about his ability to convert his raw power into game power. That came to fruition during his rookie season in 2025, as he managed a modest .122 ISO with just a 6.9 percent barrel rate and 45.1 percent groundball rate. The latter number has only shifted slightly (42.5 percent) across 64 plate appearances, but he's more than doubled his barrel rate while significantly increasing his bat speed to 77.8 mph (98th percentile).

The surface stats have followed. Smith already has three home runs after recording only nine all of last season, with his xwOBAcon jumping from .377 to .462. He's made quick progress from competing for a roster spot and playing time in the spring to becoming an everyday player and a key part of a Houston lineup that is searching for its group of core players. Given that context, a move up the batting order could be coming.

Garrett Mitchell – 21.1 percent barrel rate, 96th percentile

Mitchell was a popular deep sleeper entering 2025, but his season ended quickly due to a shoulder injury. The first step for him in 2026 was to prove that shoulder issue was no longer affecting his ability to produce, a box he has emphatically checked early on. Before jumping into some of those specific numbers, Mitchell is one of the players with a very limited sample as he has only 19 batted ball events (through Monday night) due to a combination of playing on the large side of a platoon and his inconsistent ability to make contact. Nevertheless, he's posted a 112.6 mph max exit velocity, suggesting his power potential is still present.

The Brewers also appear to be intent on seeing just what they have in Mithcell. He has started every game against right-handed pitching and has alternated between hitting second and fourth early in the season. With Christian Yelich (hamstring) set to be sidelined for roughly a month, Mitchell's prominence will only increase. Mitchell's inconsistent ability to make contact will likely lead to lengthy stretches of poor production, but he has the early look of a post-hype sleeper ready to deliver.

 Maikel Garcia – 13.2 percent barrel rate vs. 5.6 percent in 2025

Garcia is in a pivotal season from a fantasy perspective. He made a modest gain in barrel rate in 2025, but there wasn't much to suggest that a big leap was on the way for the current campaign. Instead, Garcia has seemingly optimized his approach to produce power. He  has improved his fast swing rate (a swing that reached 75 mph) to 20.2 percent, a three percent increase from 2025 and a mark much closer to league average, while also posting a pull air rate of 17.0 percent — a six percentage point increase from 2024. It was defensible to read 2025 as a nice step forward for Garcia but still regard him as a player without much additional upside. His early improvement in barrel rate suggests that's not the case, and he could truly establish himself as a top fantasy third baseman in 2026.

Fallers

Michael Busch – 4.9 percent barrel rate vs. 17.1 percent in 2025

There was a lot of optimism regarding Busch this offseason after a power breakout in 2025. Manager Craig Counsell promised that Busch wouldn't be platooned, which has turned out to be the case, but he was instead held out of the lineup Sunday and Monday after going hitless for a 30 at-bat stretch. His slow start doesn't look to be a matter of bad luck, as he's barreled only two balls in 41 batted-ball events (through Monday). The end result has been a .038 ISO with no home runs and only two doubles in 60 plate appearances.

As is the case for all of the players categorized as "Fallers," Busch could turn things around quickly. However, it is noteworthy that his lowest barrel rate in a single month at any point in his career was 6.3 percent. That came in August of 2023, before Busch was with the Cubs.  The other problem that differentiates Busch other slow starters is his dependence on power to deliver fantasy value. If there were to be a reason for optimism, Busch has lowered his strikeout rate to 19.7 percent, building off of his progress in that regard from the 2025 season.

Jazz Chisholm - 4.8 percent barrel rate vs. 15 percent in 2025

Chisholm has taken a leap forward in each of the last two seasons and was being drafted as an elite fantasy contributor in 2026. His lack of power production has been masked by his aggressiveness on the basepaths, but everything except for his stolen base count has lagged to begin the new campaign. Chisholm's 4.8 percent barrel rate is a significant departure from his career average, and other metrics similarly confirm that he isn't clicking at the plate early in the season. He's been less aggressive on swings in the zone, and his percentage of fast swings has also fallen.

Chisholm has been a streaky hitter in the past, but he became more consistent in 2025 during his true breakout season. It's too early to draw sweeping conclusions, but his start is concerning given his second-to-third round ADP.

Pete Crow-Armstrong – 4.5 percent barrel rate vs. 13 percent in 2025

While Chisholm had a lot of momentum behind him during draft season, Crow-Armstrong was more divisive. However, the two hitters have gotten off to similarly slow starts and for comparable reasons. PCA's aggressiveness at the plate is nothing new — his 59.8 percent swing rate is in line with his career rate — but his swing decisions have moved drastically in the wrong direction. His O-Swing rate has jumped to 49.2 percent, while his Z-Swing rate has dipped to 70.9 percent. Those numbers will likely even out over time, but his start to the season is a good reminder of the flaws in his profile. Crow-Armstrong has still been decent for fantasy purposes despite his lack of power, with four stolen bases and 11 runs scored across 17 games, so it's not time to sell him in a panic move. On the other hand, a repeat of 30 home runs also may not be realistic.

Austin Riley – 6.3 percent barrel rate vs. 15.2 percent in 2025

Riley's ADP fell in 2026 after a pair of disappointing seasons, presenting what looked to be a reasonable buy-low opportunity. Instead, the early returns of 2026 suggest that he's beyond his prime. Riley has managed to make plenty of contact — he's striking out at below a 20 percent clip — but his ability to hit the ball with authority has disappeared. His average bat speed and fast swing rate remain stable, but his ability to catch up to fastballs and pull the ball in the air has dissipated. During his best years, Riley had whiff rates between 22 and 24 percent against the fastball while slugging between .460 and .500 against the pitch. This year, his whiff rate has surged to 30.9 percent and his slugging percentage is .375. Similarly, his pulled flyball rate is only 12.5 percent. Riley is arguably the most concerning hitter on this list given his progressive decline that has carried over from 2024 and 2025.