Last time, we analyzed the best and worst pitches by swinging-strike rate. I'll probably re-visit that in a future article, but let's peek at the best and worst in called-strikes-plus-whiff rates (CSW) by pitch.
Highest CSW By Pitch
Several top starting pitchers pop up when sorting by the highest CSW rates by pitch, with a minimum of 100 pitches thrown. A couple of weeks ago, only two pitchers had multiple offerings in the top 25 in CSW, including Lucas Giolito's four-seamer and changeup, plus Shane McClanahan's slider, changeup and curveball. As of June 6, McClanahan's slider and changeup ranked as the only pitcher with two pitches in the top 25 in CSW.
Shane McClanahan (SP, TB) - Slider, Changeup & Curveball
After a breakout rookie season in 2021, McClanahan keeps crushing in his sophomore season with a 2.10 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 36% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate through 64.1 innings. Amongst pitchers with 120 innings in 2021, McClanahan ranked 25th with a 20.1 K-BB%. Meanwhile, in 2022, McClanahan ranks first with a 31.2 K-BB% amongst qualified pitchers.
When looking at the underlying metrics, McClanahan went from three pitches with a double-digit swinging-strike rate to all four offerings eliciting a double-digit rate in 2022. Although the curveball SwStr% dropped to 14.5% in 2022, the slider and changeup jumped in SwStr%. Thankfully, the slider and changeup increased in SwStr%, nearly three-to-four percentage points higher than in 2021. Overall, McClanahan boasts an ace-like profile and arsenal, so ride the wave
Last time, we analyzed the best and worst pitches by swinging-strike rate. I'll probably re-visit that in a future article, but let's peek at the best and worst in called-strikes-plus-whiff rates (CSW) by pitch.
Highest CSW By Pitch
Several top starting pitchers pop up when sorting by the highest CSW rates by pitch, with a minimum of 100 pitches thrown. A couple of weeks ago, only two pitchers had multiple offerings in the top 25 in CSW, including Lucas Giolito's four-seamer and changeup, plus Shane McClanahan's slider, changeup and curveball. As of June 6, McClanahan's slider and changeup ranked as the only pitcher with two pitches in the top 25 in CSW.
Shane McClanahan (SP, TB) - Slider, Changeup & Curveball
After a breakout rookie season in 2021, McClanahan keeps crushing in his sophomore season with a 2.10 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 36% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate through 64.1 innings. Amongst pitchers with 120 innings in 2021, McClanahan ranked 25th with a 20.1 K-BB%. Meanwhile, in 2022, McClanahan ranks first with a 31.2 K-BB% amongst qualified pitchers.
When looking at the underlying metrics, McClanahan went from three pitches with a double-digit swinging-strike rate to all four offerings eliciting a double-digit rate in 2022. Although the curveball SwStr% dropped to 14.5% in 2022, the slider and changeup jumped in SwStr%. Thankfully, the slider and changeup increased in SwStr%, nearly three-to-four percentage points higher than in 2021. Overall, McClanahan boasts an ace-like profile and arsenal, so ride the wave if you roster him, and I would say do not sell high in any league format.
Eric Lauer (SP, MIL) - Curveball
With Lauer, the four-seam fastball velocity increased by over one mph from 2020 to 2021, increasing an additional tick to 93.6 mph in 2022. Like the Marlins, the Brewers seem like an organization to trust with pitchers, and Lauer keeps ascending in 2022.
According to Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard, Lauer's curveball boasts a 38.6 CSW% -- the seventh-best curveball (min. 100 pitches thrown). However, it's an interesting, mix with a 6.4% swinging-strike rate yet a 32.2% called-strike rate.
Against right-handed hitters, Lauer uses the curveball with the batter ahead in the count for called strikes. That curveball usage increased from 8% in 2021 to 25.3% in situations where Lauer is behind in the count.
On June 5 against the Padres, Lauer's curveball resulted in a 39% CSW% with a 13% Whiff% (one whiff), aligning with the season-long metrics. Although Lauer's curveball popped on the CSW% leaderboards, the four-seamer and slider remain his two best pitches in swinging-strike rate. In 2022, Lauer's four-seamer is eliciting a 12.9 SwStr%, up from a career rate of 10%. Overall, Lauer's skills match the breakout season results.
Paul Blackburn (SP, OAK) - Curveball
We all sort various leaderboards to find hidden gems. Players like Blackburn pop up, and Blackburn in particular thanks to his curveball: 39.3 CSW% via a balanced 16.9 SwStr% and 22.4 called-strike rate. Farther down, we find JT Brubaker and Chad Kuhl possessing sliders with quality CSW rates.
Blackburn's 2.62 ERA and 1.06 WHIP seem odd given the 18.9% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate, translating into a career-best 12.9 K-BB%. Meanwhile, Blackburn's fastball velocity of 91.9 mph represents a one-mph increase from his career rate, and his swinging-strike rate is close to a career high. Surprisingly, Blackburn has four pitches with a double-digit SwStr% in the cutter, curveball, changeup and four-seamer.
Blackburn's curveball possesses 6.7 inches more vertical drop versus the average (No. 11 amongst RHP). The underlying metrics look intriguing, and Blackburn has more than one effective pitch. Keep an eye on Blackburn's cutter with above-average horizontal movement, are the results on that pitch so far are slightly concerning (.346 BA, .692 SLG, and .459 wOBA).
Lowest CSW By Pitch
Near the bottom of the CSW leaderboard are several unexciting pitchers in Zack Greinke, Marco Gonzales, Antonio Senzatela, Dallas Keuchel, and Cal Quantrill. However, we also find Eduardo Rodriguez, Trevor Rogers, Michael Kopech, and Eric Lauer's cutter. Rodriguez, Kopech and Rogers stood out the most, so we'll examine their respective pitches to see what's different.
Trevor Rogers (SP, MIA) - Changeup
I hear people questioning what's going on with Rogers. After a 19.3% swinging-strike rate on the changeup in 2021, it has dropped to 10.3% in 2022. The chase rate has decreased nearly 10 percentage points to 35.7%. Rogers' changeup currently ranks 14th worst amongst 262 qualified pitches in CSW at 19.5%. In 2021, Rogers' changeup boasted a 33% CSW rate.
The movement profile hasn't changed much outside of one inch fewer drop, but the dip in SwStr% is concerning. Meanwhile, the SwStr% on the four-seamer and slider has decreased.
Shout out to @CoolWhip of Razzball for pointing out Rogers' release points changed, particularly on the changeup. When looking at the month-by-month horizontal release points, it's clear he's moved closer to the middle of his body.
The vertical release point on the changeup and slider dropped a few inches, with the four-seamer remaining similar, though following the trend. That could indicate Rogers is tipping his pitches, and opposing teams have noticed that trend of how it comes out of his hand. Rogers' change in release point aligns with the ineffectiveness by SwStr% and CSW%. If there is an organization to trust for developing pitchers, the Marlins remain one of them. Buy low on Rogers with the expectation that he fixes the release point concerns.
Eduardo Rodriguez (SP, DET) - Changeup
Unfortunately, Rodriguez landed on the injured list with a rib injury, with the recent news that he is making rehab starts. However, Rodriguez's changeup ranks as the sixth-worst pitch in CSW (minimum 100 pitches thrown). The changeup hasn't elicited as many whiffs with an 11% swinging-strike rate and 30.4 O-Swing% in 2022. It's a drastic drop versus the career SwStr% of 18% and O-Swing% of 41.1%.
The movement profile on Rodriguez's changeup hasn't shifted much, and unsurprisingly, the results haven't improved much. In 2022, the changeup allowed a .297 BA, .622 SLG and .420 wOBA. Throughout his career, the changeup has a .243 BA, .362 SLG and .285 wOBA. It's risky to buy low on an injured pitcher. However, the SwStr% for the changeup and four-seamer should regress closer to the career norms. The skills and ERA estimators typically hinted at more upside for Rodriguez, but it's probably a safe move to observe from afar when he returns from his injury.
Michael Kopech (SP, CHW) - Slider
So far in 2022, Kopech boasts elite ratios with a 1.94 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, though those marks come with a .180 BABIP and 77.9 LOB%. Kopech's BABIP will likely regress, but even an ERA around 2.50 isn't awful. Kopech's 13.5 K-BB% raises eyebrows, with the strikeout rate (25.5%) down and walk rate (12%) up in 2022 versus the 36.1% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate in 2021. However, it's unsurprising to see Kopech's K-BB% regress given most of his appearances were in relief in 2021.
Interestingly, the results on the slider remain elite with a .103 BA, .128 SLG and .156 wOBA, lower than the .193 BA, .352 SLG and .241 wOBA marks in 2021. The slider possesses 3.6 inches more vertical movement than the average slider, and it should translate into a better SwStr% in 2022. Also, Kopech dropped the slider usage in favor of the curveball, which has elite results -- .100 BA, .150 SLG and .186 wOBA.
You know the saying: process over results. But what happens when the results look positive, yet the skills don't align as expected? Thankfully, Kopech has limited the damage on the slider, even though the swings and misses haven't followed. Expect the slider SwStr% and CSW to improve for the rest of 2022.
