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MLB Best Bets Today: New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals
Things are getting serious in the MLB Playoffs. The New York Mets somehow are heading to the National League Championship Series (NLCS), which has me completely shocked. The Mets advancing is the first domino to fall into the final four. The slate tonight features both American League matchups with elimination games on tap as the Tigers and Yankees are each one win away from the next level. Scary hours.
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New York Yankees (-152) @ Kansas City Royals (+128) | Total: O/U 8.0 (-106/-114)
Let me first just say the American League sucks. The field is hot garb. The National League is so much better, must be nice to have an All-Time easy path. The team that is and should be the biggest beneficiary of this legendary layup road to the World Series is those scrappy $300 million underdog New York Yankees. The Yankees are one game away from advancing to the American League Championship Series (ALCS) where they would face the winner of Detroit-Cleveland. Gerrit Cole will be on the mound for New York, but will Kansas City stand up with their season on the line?
If I'm being honest, my desired outcome is nobody wins the American League, but seeing how somebody has to get it done, let's get to it.
The Royals missed a golden chance on Wednesday to steal a pivotal Game 3 at home. Instead, they allowed Giancarlo Stanton to wake up for the first time in his life in the postseason and leave the yard for the go-ahead home run in the eighth inning. Now in a big hole, Kansas City has to win two games in a row by getting past both Cole and a tough Bronx environment in Game 5.
Michael Wacha will make his second start of the series, after delivering a less-than-stellar outing in Game 1 where he allowed three earned runs in four innings. Typically, not many starters deal the second time facing the same opponent in consecutive outings. Even though trends and stats mean nothing this time of year, it's worth noting Wacha has been miles better at home than on the road. His 2.89 ERA in 14 starts at the Big K is also accompanied by the Royals winning nine of those games. It's nearly a full run better than on the road. Even against this Yankee lineup that has mightily underperformed, Wacha still needs to be cautious about the thunder.
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We can say virtually nobody has performed at a professional level in this Yankees offense, outside of Giancarlo Stanton in Game 3, but the same is pretty much true for the Royals except Michael Massey (.368 average). Like Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. had an MVP type of season but has been a complete no-show in this series, going 1-for-13. Things won't get much easier as Cole will come to put the clamps on the series.
While Cole wasn't great in Game 1 on his own accord (five innings, seven hits, three earned runs), he's still one of the most talented pitchers in the game. There would be very few arms most MLB managers would take over him, especially in this situation. The one guy in this Royals offense that has extensive action against Cole is Tommy Pham, who is 13-for-36 (.361) with seven homers lifetime. It's a bit surprising he's batting so far down in the order, but Pham could be a sneaky home run play this evening. The Royals need somebody to deliver tonight, and it may be him.
Everything is favoring the Yankees tonight. So much is on their side, but for some reason, I think Kansas City finds a way to gut this one out. The Royals have found a way to surprise people when they've been counted out. In possibly the last game of the season at Kauffman Stadium, I think the Royals find a way to extend their season.
Pick: Royals ML (+128 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
