Last time, we looked at pitchers — Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton — who are 38 years or older. This time, we'll look at hitters who are 38 years or older. Eight such hitters have at least 100 plate appearances this season, including the three most fantasy relevant — Nelson Cruz, Joey Votto, and Yuli Gurriel (no offense to Miguel Cabrera).
Have Cruz, Votto, and Gurriel fallen off? What do their skills indicate?
Nelson Cruz
Nelson Cruz has eight home runs, 34 runs, 43 RBIs and a .252 average. After a slow April, Cruz picked up the pace in May and June:
- April: .155 AVG, 2 HR, 10 R, 11 RBI
- May: .318 AVG, 2 HR, 13 R, 16 RBI
- June: .274 AVG, 3 HR, 9 R, 11 RBI
Let's reflect on 2021 for a minute. After Cruz was traded to the Rays in late July, his production trended down, partly due to park factors:
- 2021 MIN: .294/.370/.537
- 2021 TB: .226/.283/.442
Cruz signed with the Nationals this offseason, but his April in Washington looked like a continuation of his time in Tampa Bay. His plate discipline remained similar with a 34.7 O-Swing%, 84.2 Z-Contact%, and 74.6 Contact% in April, but his BABIP was a measly .169 compared to .252 with the Rays. Since May 1, though, Cruz's BABIP skyrocketed to .378. The rolling graph shows his BABIP trends.
Another change for Cruz involves a lower Z-Contact% (78.3) and Contact% (69.0), though the contact quality stands out. Cruz
Last time, we looked at pitchers — Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton — who are 38 years or older. This time, we'll look at hitters who are 38 years or older. Eight such hitters have at least 100 plate appearances this season, including the three most fantasy relevant — Nelson Cruz, Joey Votto, and Yuli Gurriel (no offense to Miguel Cabrera).
Have Cruz, Votto, and Gurriel fallen off? What do their skills indicate?
Nelson Cruz
Nelson Cruz has eight home runs, 34 runs, 43 RBIs and a .252 average. After a slow April, Cruz picked up the pace in May and June:
- April: .155 AVG, 2 HR, 10 R, 11 RBI
- May: .318 AVG, 2 HR, 13 R, 16 RBI
- June: .274 AVG, 3 HR, 9 R, 11 RBI
Let's reflect on 2021 for a minute. After Cruz was traded to the Rays in late July, his production trended down, partly due to park factors:
- 2021 MIN: .294/.370/.537
- 2021 TB: .226/.283/.442
Cruz signed with the Nationals this offseason, but his April in Washington looked like a continuation of his time in Tampa Bay. His plate discipline remained similar with a 34.7 O-Swing%, 84.2 Z-Contact%, and 74.6 Contact% in April, but his BABIP was a measly .169 compared to .252 with the Rays. Since May 1, though, Cruz's BABIP skyrocketed to .378. The rolling graph shows his BABIP trends.
Another change for Cruz involves a lower Z-Contact% (78.3) and Contact% (69.0), though the contact quality stands out. Cruz went from an 8.8 Barrel% and 41.2 percent hard-hit rate in April to a 13.7 Barrel% and 48.7 percent hard-hit rate thereafter. Given Cruz's consistency throughout his career, it makes sense to see the Barrel% and hard-hit rates rebound after a slow April.
The recent surge in May and June helped Cruz's Statcast metrics inch closer to career norms — now 12.0 Barrel% and 8 percent Barrel/PA this season.
Takeaways
At 41, it's reasonable to expect Cruz's skills to regress, but the downturn has not been drastic. Expect Cruz to finish this season with a similar line to 2021, with 25 or so home runs, 150-160 runs plus RBIs and a .260-.270 average.
According to the RotoWire Earned Auction Values, Cruz's $14 value is near hitters like Matt Olson, Andrew Vaughn and Jose Abreu. That seems worth the NFBC Main Event ADP around pick 183, though Cruz has shown above-average skills, not elite in 2022.
Joey Votto
Like Cruz, Joey Votto struggled in April with no home runs, seven runs plus RBIs, a .129 average and .434 OPS. Then the steady Votto showed up in May and June.
- May: .278 AVG, 2 HR, 4 R, 7 RBI, 1.034 OPS (43 PA)
- June: .254 AVG, 3 HR, 10 R, 12 RBI, .797 OPS
Votto posted a 31.4 K% in April with a .209 BABIP. Votto's K% peaked early in 2022, but it has trended closer to his career rates in the last month.
Votto has shown a more aggressive approach with a 47.1 Swing% this season, his highest since 2010, after 43.9 percent last season. Votto's contact quality metrics improved with a .379 wOBA, 13.3 Barrel% and 51.8 percent hard-hit rate since May 1.
Last season remains the outlier in barrel rate for Votto. His 17.2 Barrel% last season was not just his highest in the Statcast era (since 2015) but the only time before this season that he had double-digit barrel rate. This year is more in line with his career at 10.5 percent. The rolling graph below shows the spike in 2021 with the 2022 metrics aligning with the career norms.
One final note on the batted-ball results — Votto is struggling against fastballs versus past seasons.
2022 vs. Fastballs: .228 AVG, .446 SLG, .365 wOBA
Career vs. Fastballs: .329 AVG, .580 SLG, .439 wOBA
Votto might be struggling with timing. Keep an eye on Votto's success versus fastballs, but also monitor Votto's wOBA on pitches on the outer edge of the plate.
Like the 2021 barrel rates, Votto's heat maps by zone in 2021 could be an outlier season.
Takeaways
Per EV Analytics, the Reds' home park ranks second in wOBA (1.07) and first for home run (1.28) park factors. Unfortunately, Votto has provided $-3 via the RotoWire Earned Auction Values, but the skills and results have ticked up, giving us confidence he'll turn it around this season. Look beyond the overall line and buy low on Votto, if possible.
Yuli Gurriel
The final older hitter we'll discuss involves Yuli Gurriel. Unfortunately, Gurriel hasn't followed the same trend as Cruz and Votto with slow Aprils, then improved results and skills.
- April: .224 AVG, .604 OPS, 0 HR, 5 R, 4 RBI
- May: .214 AVG, .621 OPS, 3 HR, 10 R, 9 RBI
- June: .206 AVG, .677 OPS, 2 HR, 7 R, 5 RBI
Gurriel has a career .295 BABIP and .287 average, which makes his .232 BABIP and .215 BA this season worrisome. Will the BABIP rebound closer to his career numbers?
Usually, high line-drive rates equate to a higher BABIP and AVG, but Gurriel has never posted a high LD% with a career rate of 20 percent. Instead, he relies on a contact-based profile with above-average Z-Contact% and Contact%. So, his nearly four percentage points drop in LD% from 2021 to 16.4 percent, which aligns with his dip in BABIP, isn't as concerning — he could overcome it with high contact rates ... but those have fallen recently as well, and that is a concern.
Gurriel has never thrived in the hard-hit metrics. His 2.6 Barrel%, 2 percent Barrel/PA and 36.4 percent hard-hit rate in 2022, nearly identical to the career rates.
Despite the lack of hard hits, in Gurriel's best seasons, he hit fastballs well. That isn't the case for in 2022. The graph below shows Gurriel's wOBA against specific pitches, including fastballs. This season's wOBA vs. fastball is a career low.
- 2022 vs. Fastballs: .206 AVG, .302 SLG, .267 wOBA
- 2021 vs. Fastballs: .328 AVG, .450 SLG, .368 wOBA
- Career vs. Fastballs: .288 AVG, .438 SLG, .334 wOBA
Unfortunately, Gurriel isn't performing well against breaking or offspeed pitches either. When a hitter like Gurriel doesn't have a standout tool, it should provoke hesitation when the underlying metrics look worrisome.
Takeaways
The RotoWire Earned Auction Values have Gurriel at $-2. Gurriel still hits fifth or sixth in the Astros' lineup, ranking third with a 139 wRC+ in June and seventh with a 114 wRC+ in May.
If his BABIP and performance versus fastballs positively regresses, Gurriel could produce similar to 2021 (outside of batting average). But that's a big if.
