Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

There's some hot prospects out there while it's still too early to worry about others who've started off slowly.
Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

TJ Rumfield starting the season at first base for the Rockies was a feel-good story, though Charlie Condon represents Colorado's future at the position. Despite his detractors, he's off to a scorching start at Triple-A slashing .322/.452/.559 with four homers, 12 RBI and two steals. Not only is Condon's average eye-opening, but so is the fact he's drawn almost as many walks (12) as strikeouts (13).  There's almost certainly going to be an adjustment for him once he reaches the big leagues, though he's really the perfect player for the thin air of Coors Field. Condon isn't currently on the 40-man roster and there isn't any rush to get him to the Majors given the stellar competition ahead of Colorado in the NL West. He'll probably debut sooner rather than later if he continues to show improvements on his supposed areas of weakness.

Let's take a look at some other players making waves in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

See where future major league baseball starts slot into RotoWire's MLB Top Prospects & Rankings for 2026!

UPGRADE

Robby Snelling, P, MIA – Snelling has been downright dominant during his last two Triple-A starts as he's already fanned 21 batters while only scattering four hits without allowing a run. The 22-year-old lefty doesn't have much left to prove in the minors as he's posted a sub-1.80 ERA through 15 appearances at this level going back to last year. With Chris Paddack struggling to find his footing with the Marlins, it could only be a

TJ Rumfield starting the season at first base for the Rockies was a feel-good story, though Charlie Condon represents Colorado's future at the position. Despite his detractors, he's off to a scorching start at Triple-A slashing .322/.452/.559 with four homers, 12 RBI and two steals. Not only is Condon's average eye-opening, but so is the fact he's drawn almost as many walks (12) as strikeouts (13).  There's almost certainly going to be an adjustment for him once he reaches the big leagues, though he's really the perfect player for the thin air of Coors Field. Condon isn't currently on the 40-man roster and there isn't any rush to get him to the Majors given the stellar competition ahead of Colorado in the NL West. He'll probably debut sooner rather than later if he continues to show improvements on his supposed areas of weakness.

Let's take a look at some other players making waves in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

See where future major league baseball starts slot into RotoWire's MLB Top Prospects & Rankings for 2026!

UPGRADE

Robby Snelling, P, MIA – Snelling has been downright dominant during his last two Triple-A starts as he's already fanned 21 batters while only scattering four hits without allowing a run. The 22-year-old lefty doesn't have much left to prove in the minors as he's posted a sub-1.80 ERA through 15 appearances at this level going back to last year. With Chris Paddack struggling to find his footing with the Marlins, it could only be a matter of time before Snelling gets the call.

Franklin Arias, SS, BOS – Arias is only 20 and already at Double-A while surging out of the gate having produced a .467/.564/.833 line with three home runs, nine RBI and one steal through 10 contests. Knocked for a lack of power and only average speed at best, he's already displayed improvement on the former. There are no doubts about Arias's talents in the batter's box as he makes consistent contact with more walks (five) than strikeouts (three) within the small sample size. A few more homers and a couple more swipes will make him a top asset up the middle.

Matt Wilkinson, P, CLE – The southpaw nicknamed "Tugboat" pitched for Team Canada during the World Baseball Classic, and perhaps those added reps allowed him to seamlessly start the season at Double-A as he's impressed with a 1.35 ERA and 17:3 K:BB across 13.1 innings. The 23-year-old dazzled during his most recent start on Sunday against the Binghamton Mets as he completed five no-hit frames. Wilkinson isn't a hard thrower despite his solid appearance and relies on deception and extension to pad his strikeout totals. If he can keep the ball down and keep the free passes to a minimum, he'll be in line for a bounceback campaign.

Sean Keys, 3B, TOR – A fourth-round pick out of Bucknell in 2024, Keys struggled to hit for average last season at High-A yet still managed 86 walks and 19 home runs. He's off to a solid start at Double-A by slashing .356/.482/.756 with five homers and 15 RBI from 12 matchups. And it was power - not the ability to handle the bat - that was questioned of Keys when drafted. If he can put last year's contact issues behind him, it looks like he offers enough pop from the left side to make a charge to the Majors - perhaps as early as 2026.

CHECK STATUS

JR Ritchie, P, ATL – Ritchie made a triumphant return from Tommy John surgery with 140 innings across three levels last season, with 59.2 of those coming at Triple-A. He's back at that level and has recorded a 0.99 ERA and 28:13 K:BB through 27.1 innings while opposing batters are only hitting .167 against. A couple of red flags are keeping Ritchie's status in check for right now as his walks are on the high side. Though not uncommon for someone still not far removed from Tommy John surgery, the added baserunners could be a concern in the bigs. Ritchie's strikeouts are also not eye-popping to limit his "ace" upside. He's also not yet on the Braves' 40-man roster, so the club would have to do some maneuvering to get him there while Didier Fuentes is ahead of him on the depth chart. Ritchie looks close to getting there and has changed the narrative, yet he may never be the true rotation anchor that was initially expected.

James Tibbs, OF, LAD – The Dodgers fleeced the Red Sox in yet another trade as Tibbs came over in the Dustin May deal and has done nothing but rake since entering his new organization. In 21 games at Triple-A, he's gone .282/.380/.682 with nine homers and 18 RBI. Tibbs has collected 32 strikeouts over that stretch and his path to everyday MLB at-bats is blocked in multiple ways.  Nevertheless, he adds depth to what is already an embarrassment of outfield riches in LA.

Blake Burke, 1B, MIL – Despite the Brewers carrying plenty of first basemen in their system, Burke is an intriguing hitter who's turned some heads since entering Double-A late last season. Across 52 combined contests at that level the last two years, he's notched 18 home runs and 11 stolen bases. Burke will face plenty of internal competition from the likes of Brock Wilken, Luke Adams, Tyler Black, Andrew Fischer and even Andrew Vaughn, though his productivity can't be ignored.

Joshua Baez, OF, STL – Baez was simply electric in 2025 between Double-A and Triple-A as he recorded 20 homers and 54 steals while hitting a combined .287. While his tools continue to be on display, he's struggled making contact at Triple-A only slashing .206/.308/.397 over 18 outings. Baez has already delivered three home runs and five RBI, but struggling to hit for average was something that simply didn't happen last year.

DOWNGRADE

Bryce Rainer, SS, DET – One of the top phenoms in baseball underwent surgery on a dislocated right shoulder last June after his first 35 minor-league games, so perhaps he's still rounding back into shape to start 2026. The 20-year-old has gone 7-for-42 (.167) with one homer and four steals during 11 Low-A appearances alongside 20 Ks. Rainer flashed speed, power and the ability to hit for average during his inaugural - albeit, brief - 2025 while the tools remain very much in play. That being said, he's far away from making a big-league impact and even further if he continues to struggle.

Dasan Hill, P, MIN – Hill enjoyed a stellar debut as a teenager at Low-A last year by posting a 2.77 ERA and 68:33 K:BB in 52 innings, though the high walk total may have foreshadowed his current struggles holding a 10:10 K:BB across eight frames while giving up 11 hits. Despite not surrendering a homer, he's uncharacteristically been unable to keep the ball down. The 6'5" southpaw is only 20 with plenty of room to fill out and mature, yet this is clearly not the start he envisioned.

Jonah Tong, P, NYM – The beginning of 2026 has been nothing short of a nightmare for the Mets as the team has lost 11 straight en route to the worst record in baseball. Tong was one of the fastest risers last year, but didn't make the team out of Spring Training and has mainly been hittable through four Triple-A matchups. While the 22-year-old righty has 23 strikeouts from 15.1 innings, he's also walked 10 while conceding four home runs leading to a 7.71 ERA. Tong should be next up for the Mets after shipping out Brandon Sproat during the offseason, though his lackluster start remains a bit puzzling.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Siegel covers college football, college basketball and minor league baseball for RotoWire. He was named College Sports Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
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