With my draft season wrapped up, I analyzed my most-added players. I changed my valuation process this year after looking over my previous weaknesses. I'm hoping it'll give me more balanced results, but I'll need the season to play out to know for sure. The new method created a unique set of draft rankings, with some players sticking out as great values.
For hitters, I've been able to grind out plate appearances and post league-leading runs and RBI totals. This year, I removed those two values from my equation and over-weighted batting average and home runs. My hope is to have a solid base of batting average and homers, and to get the counting stats once I'm forced to go to the waiver wire.
For pitchers, I focused on talent, with playing time concerns, whether from injury or inexperience, taking a back seat. I want good, solid innings, and if I need a filler, I'll go to the wire to get a boring arm.
In total, I'm in 11 leagues, comprising two draft-and-holds, five 12-team redraft leagues and four 15-team redraft leagues. All the leagues are standard roto except three that use on-base instead of average, and two use saves plus holds instead of just saves.
With the background out of the way, here are the players I drafted in at least four leagues this year:
Name | Shares | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
10 | 91% | |
10 | 91% | |
9 | 82% | |
9 | 82% | |
9 | 82% |
With my draft season wrapped up, I analyzed my most-added players. I changed my valuation process this year after looking over my previous weaknesses. I'm hoping it'll give me more balanced results, but I'll need the season to play out to know for sure. The new method created a unique set of draft rankings, with some players sticking out as great values.
For hitters, I've been able to grind out plate appearances and post league-leading runs and RBI totals. This year, I removed those two values from my equation and over-weighted batting average and home runs. My hope is to have a solid base of batting average and homers, and to get the counting stats once I'm forced to go to the waiver wire.
For pitchers, I focused on talent, with playing time concerns, whether from injury or inexperience, taking a back seat. I want good, solid innings, and if I need a filler, I'll go to the wire to get a boring arm.
In total, I'm in 11 leagues, comprising two draft-and-holds, five 12-team redraft leagues and four 15-team redraft leagues. All the leagues are standard roto except three that use on-base instead of average, and two use saves plus holds instead of just saves.
With the background out of the way, here are the players I drafted in at least four leagues this year:
Name | Shares | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
10 | 91% | |
10 | 91% | |
9 | 82% | |
9 | 82% | |
9 | 82% | |
7 | 64% | |
7 | 64% | |
7 | 64% | |
7 | 64% | |
6 | 55% | |
6 | 55% | |
6 | 55% | |
6 | 55% | |
5 | 45% | |
5 | 45% | |
5 | 45% | |
5 | 45% | |
5 | 45% | |
4 | 36% | |
4 | 36% | |
4 | 36% | |
4 | 36% | |
4 | 36% | |
4 | 36% | |
4 | 36% | |
4 | 36% | |
4 | 36% | |
4 | 36% |
Here are my thoughts on those players. All the ADP values were from recent NFBC Main Event drafts I used for my last draft on Tuesday night.
Major Discounted Hitters
The difference between our values and ADP made these two auto adds. They aren't sexy but should be solid suppliers of batting average, home runs and steals.
Alec Burleson: With my rankings, he came out of the 72nd-ranked player while being drafted over 100 picks later (187 ADP).
Michael Harris II: My system spit out Harris as the 41st-ranked player, and he was going after pick 100. I got to the point of planning around the pair.
Discounted Hitters: These guys aren't special, but they do provide a solid base with some upside.
Andy Pages, Heliot Ramos, Ezequiel Tovar, Otto Lopez, Jake Burger, Jorge Polanco, and Yandy Diaz.
Starting Pitcher Anchors
Cristopher Sanchez: A solid second or third-round addition after going with a batter early on.
George Kirby: Quickly moved to the top of my rankings as an early arm.
Talented Pitchers
Nathan Eovaldi: Elite when healthy.
Matthew Boyd: Over the last two seasons, he has had a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 WHIP after his velocity ticked up.
Cody Ponce: Best pitcher ever to return from Korea and looked great in spring training (0.66 ERA, 0.80 WHIP).
Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft, Casey Mize, Joey Cantillo, and Max Meyer: I targeted this group because they threw hard, had one elite secondary pitch, another acceptable secondary pitch and a decent walk rate. Here they are ranked in my order of preference.
| Name | FB velo | SwStr% (1st Secondary) | SwStr% (2nd Secondary) | BB/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Burrows | 95.6 | 26% | 10% | 2.9 |
| Braxton Ashcraft | 96.9 | 18% | 12% | 3.1 |
| Max Meyer | 94.8 | 16% | 9% | 2.8 |
| Casey Mize | 94.7 | 18% | 12% | 2.2 |
| Joey Cantillo | 91.8 | 24% | 13% | 4.0 |
| Average | 94.8 | 20% | 11% | 3.0 |
Others met these criteria (e.g., Parker Messick, Carmen Mlodzinski), but they cost more, or their roles were unknown.
Catchers
I find there are always deals with catchers until late in the drafting season, when analysts start running the numbers to find how valuable a good catcher is.
Hunter Goodman: Any player with nearly 30 homers and a .250 average is useful, let alone a catcher.
Yainer Diaz: Another solid option projected for a .275 average and 20 home runs.
Closers
Daniel Palencia: Even before Palencia's cost took off from his WBC success, I had him valued as the fifth-best closer. He was an easy add until his cost went up.
Ryan Walker: He was being drafted with a bunch of other suspect closer with the projections liking him to the point he was a deal
Late Darts
Nasim Nunez: If he can play everyday, he could hit 10 homers and steal 60 bases. He could be game-changing and was freely available.
Kyle Karros: Struggled in the majors last year, but showed signs of growth this spring with more contact, power and stolen bases. Could be a 15 homer/15 steal guy with a solid batting average.
Austin Hays: A solid 20-homer source available at the end of drafts.
Brooks Lee and Ernie Clement: These two worked out great as late adds. They were basically free, with my personal projections showing they were unlucky last year and could hit around 20 homers this season.
