FanDuel's main slate Saturday features eight evening games with first pitches between 7:05 and 9:10 p.m. EDT. While only two pitchers are priced in five-figures, seven more are $9,000 or greater, so more than half of our options are in my pay-up tier.
Mariners-White Sox saw 20 runs put up Friday and is one of two games with the slate's highest run total at 9.5, with Mets-Diamondbacks joining them. As is often the case, the Dodgers (-174) are the slate's biggest favorite. Rain does not look like an issue here, but wind can be. I'd highly recommend checking weather as we get closer to first pitch. There could be some assisted homers in Chicago, Los Angeles, San Diego, Kansas City and San Francisco. Final confirmation could provide a winning variable.
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Pitching
Landen Roupp, SF vs. PIT ($9,800): I'm banking on a bounce-back from Roupp as my pay-up option Saturday, as he's off his shortest outing of the year (4.1 innings). His 3.18 ERA comes with a 2.65 FIP, and he brings a 53.1 percent ground ball rate into Saturday, easing concerns on the potential winds. The Giants are slight underdogs, but that's more of a product of their woeful offense. Walks are a mild concern, and Pittsburgh's lineup has shown a willingness to take passes (10.7 percent walk rate), but with Roupp not allowing homers, the Pirates will have to string together consecutive hits to inflict major damage.
Clay Holmes, NYM at ARI ($9,000): I have ample interest in Edward Cabrera ($9,300) as well, but Holmes gives us a bit of a discount and is on a nice roll, having not allowed more than two runs in any of his seven starts. While strikeouts aren't his thing, he does have 12 over his last 12.2 innings, and Arizona is laboring, posting a .299 wOBA, 86 wRC+ and 23.2 percent K rate off righties. Sure, it's a risk given the high run total, but nothing in Holmes' profile suggests he'll implode.
Dustin May, STL at SD ($7,500): The pay-down choice, for me at least, comes down to May or Merrill Kelly, who both are facing big-name, slumping offenses. Kelly has no semblance of form, however, having allowed six homers and 21 runs across 19.0 innings. May quietly has allowed three runs or less in five straight, four times going at least 6.0 innings. There's no strikeout upside, as May is at a career-low 6.1 per nine, but the Padres' .304 wOBA and 94 wRC+ trend towards minimal damage.
Top Targets
With so many top arms, this slate sets up as one where you can take the obvious if money is no hindrance. Aaron Judge ($4,500) faces a lefty. He has a .449 wOBA, 188 wRC+ and .385 ISO against them. I'll completely ignore that Kyle Harrison is blossoming.
The unfortunate part to me writing this column on consecutive days is I end up with a lot of the same names/matchups. I'm happy to go right back to the Bobby Witt ($3,600) train Saturday. He's hit in seven of eight and is batting .345 with two homers over the last seven. Detroit is deploying a bullpen game, not allowing us to target splits, but Witt seems stable.
Bargain Bats
Seattle looks like the clear and obvious stack on this slate against Anthony Kay, who is allowing a .456 wOBA and 1.066 OPS to righties. Julio Rodriguez ($2,900) flirts with being a must play. He's hitting .321 with five homers in his last 12, and has a .413 wOBA, 169 wRC+ and .385 ISO off lefties. The rest of the Mariners lineup doesn't have favorable splits off lefties, but I'm okay with at least a mini-stack that includes Randy Arozarena ($3,200) given Kay's struggles.
Rafael Devers ($2,600) is showing signs of life, riding an eight-game hitting streak and has homered in consecutive games. It's not an elite matchup, as Braxton Ashcraft has a 50.0 percent ground ball rate and just a 0.65 HR/9 rate, but the price is low enough we don't need elite production for a fair return.
He's strictly a BvP play as he's hitting just .241 in his last eight with no homers, but Will Smith ($2,800) is 5-for-9 with two doubles off Spencer Strider, who labored in his season debut.
Stack to Consider
Cubs vs. Jack Leiter (Rangers): Ian Happ ($3,700), Seiya Suzuki ($3,600), Michael Busch ($2,900)
I suggested this stack yesterday, and it went off for a cool 79 FanDuel points, a cool 7.7x return! The prices remain unchanged, and it's another matchup with a righty, so let's ride hot bats. Suzuki and Happ have the splits against righties, with the former posting a .423 wOBA, 173 wRC+ and .299 ISO, and the latter .418/.170/.258. Busch doesn't have them, but he's hitting everything hard right now and has a .391 BA, 1.270 OPS and 10 RBI in his last seven.
