Saturday's main slate at FanDuel is what should be a summer norm of compact games between 4:05 and 4:10 p.m. EDT. This weekend, that's a large eight gamer, but I can't sugarcoat it, it's gross. We have an insanely low 6.5 run total in Guardians-Red Sox, and five more games have totals at 7.0 or 7.5. While only five of our 16 arms are in the pay up tier, offense is going to be at a premium.
There's no massive favorite here either, with the Rays (-156) leading the way. It's dry and pleasant temperature-wise across the slate. Early indications have double-digit inbound wins in Baltimore, Washington, Cleveland and New York. That will need to be confirmed closer to lineup lock, but could further make this slate low scoring.
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Pitching
Drew Rasmussen, TB vs. LAA ($9,200): This just seems like a nice floor play where the opponent can help elevate the ceiling. Rasmussen sports a 2.78 ERA and 3.08 xFIP, so we can feel somewhat safe with innings and limited damage; he's gone 6-plus frames in three of four. His 8.4 K/9 leaves enough to be desired but can play up against an Angels lineup that fans 25.9 percent of the time off righties. Anaheim has a meager 3.1 run expectancy.
Sonny Gray, BOS at CLE ($8,500): Gray has a 4.26 ERA and 4.08 xFIP on the road, and sits with a weak 7.0 K/9, so the profile isn't elite. The play is he's the cheaper side of the paltry 6.5 run total. The Guardians have a below average 94 wRC+ and .139 ISO off righties, and from a BvP situation, he's dominated Jose Ramirez to the tune of a .209 average and .500 OPS across 43 at bats. He can match the higher-priced Parker Messick.
Christian Scott, NYM vs. MIA ($7,300): The Marlins have quietly shown an offense that can pop even if the stats don't. But they don't, entering Saturday with a 97 wRC+ and .129 ISO off righties while fanning 20.7 percent of the time. This is a terrific price point for Scott; he's posting 10.7 K/9, has a 3.20 ERA to go with a 3.46 FIP and is coming off his longest outing of the year, conveniently against the Marlins where he was an out shy of a quality start. Miami has a weak 3.3 run expectancy.
Top Targets
Houston-Milwaukee is one of two games with a slate-high 8.5 run total. Brewers' starter Brandon Sproat is allowing a .394 wOBA to lefties. Yordan Alvarez ($4,200) is the anchor as a result.
The other game with this total is Pirates-Twins, neither of which has clear and obvious targets. Minnesota's Bailey Ober does have a 6.30 road ERA, but the splits aren't elite. On a challenging slate, Oneil Cruz ($3,800) brings upside despite a power drought, while Brandon Lowe ($3,700) represents the safer floor play.
Bargain Bats
Fernando Tatis ($2,900) remains an enigma. He's hitting .378 in his last 12 and .500 in his last six but has just two RBI in that stretch. You'll need multiple hits to get a fair return, but he has second base eligibility, a non-premium position, and leads the Padres with a .378 wOBA and 141 wRC+ off lefties.
Peter Lambert has been tough on lefties, but taking secondary pieces from the Brewers lineup can provide non-zero scoring, which may be all you need to cash Saturday. Garrett Mitchell ($2,900) is hitting .429 in his last five with four RBI.
The Twins are on the wrong side of the elevated 8.5 run expectancy but can offer some options to finish your builds. Mitch Keller is a little more gettable by lefties, and Trevor Larnach ($2,900) is hitting .346 in his last seven.
Stack to Consider
Rays vs. Reid Detmers (Angels): Junior Caminero ($3,600), Jonathan Aranda ($3,600), Yandy Diaz ($3,500)
Stacking this slate is challenging, and mini-stacks of two seem more prudent. And I'd love to be able to sell you on Detmers' pitch count off a 14 strikeout outing, but I can't; he's tossed 90-plus pitches in all 11 starts. The play for me is this slate not presenting favorably for offenses but the Rays being the biggest favorite and a 4.2 run expectancy. Favorable splits for all three at fair prices; Caminero has a .391 wOBA and 150 wRC+, Aranda .348/121 and Diaz .385/146. Normally we'd seek power upside, but on this slate, I'm content to stack a lineup that can string together hits.
