Thursdays are travel days for most teams, and that's just what we have here. We actually have a split schedule, with seven teams playing during the day and four playing at night. That's why we'll focus on the day games because that's the main card on FanDuel. It's also a fascinating slate from a lineup construction standpoint, because we have two pitchers who are incredible values. With that in mind, let's start there!
Try our FanDuel MLB Lineup Optimizer to discover more expert recommendations, customize the player pool, set exposure percentage and mass-enter DFS lineups.
Pitching
Keider Montero, DET at NYM ($8,300)
Why is nobody talking about how solid Montero has been this season? He's been one of Detroit's best starters, posting a 3.18 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He's also allowed four runs or fewer in all seven starts, which should be doable in this sensational spot. Not only is Citi Field the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball, but the Mets rank 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP and wOBA. It's rare to find such an affordable pitcher with this much in his favor, especially since Montero has allowed just two total runs across 12.2 innings over his last two starts.
Carmen Mlodzinski, PIT vs. COL ($7,400)
This is a bit of a contrarian play since there's an opener for Pittsburgh, but we love anyone who's hosting the Rockies. Colorado has been the worst road offense in baseball for a decade while posting the worst K rate in baseball this year. That's scary in a pitcher's park like PNC, especially since Colorado is only projected to score four runs. Mlodzinski has also shown some flashes of being dominant at home this season, posting a 3.85 ERA and 11.0 K/9 rate at home. He struck out 10 batters just two starts ago after totaling a 1.77 ERA and an 8.9 K/9 rate through his first four starts, while posting a FIP below 3.00 for the season. Not to mention, Mlodzinski enters this magical matchup as a -180 favorite!
Top Targets
Yordan Alvarez, HOU ($3,900) vs. Luis Castillo
It's hard to believe we're recommending bats against a guy like Castillo, but this Seattle starter is simply not the same guy right now. Castillo has compiled a 6.57 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in the worst season of his career. That includes six scoreless innings in his debut, so it's been a complete disaster since then. That's horrifying against this stout Houston lineup, with Alvarez being their best bat. Yordan has a .416 OBP and 1.044 OPS this year. He's also ridiculous against righties, registering a .431 OBP against them this season. Not to mention, Alvarez has amassed a .556 OBP and 1.494 OPS in 16 at-bats against Castillo.
Otto Lopez, MIA ($3,400) vs. Connor Prielipp
Many of these Miami bats get overlooked, but Otto is having an outstanding season in South Beach. This shortstop has been hitting second or third all season, sporting a .373 OBP and .886 OPS in a breakout campaign. That's quite the start since he has a 20-20 profile, but his splits are even more stupendous. Lopez has a .447 AVG and 1.087 OPS against southpaws this season. Prielipp is not a lefty we're worried about either, as he had posted a 1.46 WHIP between Double-A and Triple-A before his call-up.
Bargain Bats
Andrew Vaughn/Jake Bauers, MIL ($3,000/$3,300) vs. Griffin Canning
The Brewers always seem to have affordable bats, with these two sluggers in great spots. We'll talk more about Canning in the stacks section, but these two should be right in the heart of one of the best lineups in baseball. Vaughn has been a different guy since joining Milwaukee last year, maintaining a .375 OBP and .869 OPS in his final 64 games with the Brewers. He's also got a .538 OBP and 1.316 OPS since going hitless in his season debut last week. Bauers has the platoon advantage from the left side, providing a .371 OBP and .873 OPS against righties this year.
Luke Raley, SEA ($2,800) vs. Mike Burrows
Seattle has been struggling offensively this season, but it's not Raley's fault. This platoon player has been rocking right-handers all season, registering a .874 OPS against them. He also had an .830 OPS against them two years ago, which is why he's projected to bat fifth or sixth in this game. That's an optimal lineup spot behind some All-Stars, but he could creep even higher since Raley has a .421 OBP and 1.288 OPS across his last six games. Facing Burrows is the icing on the cake, and we'll dive into that more in the stacks section!
Stacks to Consider
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres (Canning): Christian Yelich ($3,400), Brice Turang ($4,300), William Contreras ($3,100) and Vaughn/Bauers ($3,000/$3,300)
The Brewers have been one of the best teams in baseball, and this lineup is a major reason why. They currently rank fifth in OBP and eighth in runs scored. That won't bode well for a guy like Canning, who's compiled a 6.75 ERA and 1.61 WHIP through two starts this season. That's no surprise since he just returned from an Achilles tear, so the struggles are likely to continue against this stingy lineup.
Yelich just returned from the IL earlier this week, and he's rocked righties throughout his career. The former All-Star has a .374 OBP and .874 OPS against right-handers over the last three years. Turang is one of the league leaders with 15 FanDuel points per game. Contreras has been one of the best catchers since his call-up, collecting a .358 career OBP and .803 OPS.
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros (Mike Burrows): Julio Rodriguez ($3,100), Cal Raleigh ($2,700), Randy Arozarena ($3,300), Josh Naylor ($2,900) and Raley ($2,800)
It's difficult to get excited about Seattle when looking at the season-long numbers, but these salaries make them an intriguing stack. This lineup still has plenty of talent, and they could find something against Burrows. The Astros' arm allowed 11 hits and six runs against Seattle earlier this season while amassing a 5.04 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.
J-Rod is an easy pick as the best piece of this stack, with the perennial All-Star posting a .946 OPS across his last 29 games. Raleigh hasn't given you much reason to trust him, but this catcher had a .359 OBP and .948 OPS last season. Arozarena is coming off a four-hit gem on Tuesday and has a 1.478 OPS this week. Naylor homered twice in that game against Burrows earlier this season, and has a .366 AVG and .936 OPS across his last 21 outings.
