A busy 12-game slate is on tap Friday evening at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:10 p.m. EDT. Cam Schlittler ($10,900) leads three arms priced in five-figures, while just four more check in at $9,000 or greater. That's just 29 percent of the starters I consider priced up, so either pitching is a wasteland here and we're forced to pay up, or there's ample value. We'll see where this column goes.
As always, the Dodgers (-230) are the slate's biggest favorite, but from there, it gets pretty narrow with the Braves (-154), Yankees (-154) and Cubs (-146) following behind. Both Coors Field and Sutter Health Park (A's) are on the docket, giving us 11.5 and 10.0 run totals, respectively. Mariners-Padres (7.0) is our low point. Weather doesn't look like a massive factor with perhaps Minneapolis being an exception where it will be warm and windy.
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Pitching
Spencer Strider, ATL vs. BOS ($10,100): There may be too much volatility in Strider's potential outcomes to trust him for cash lineups; it's just his third start and he's had some trouble finding the strike zone. But he's off a dominant outing against the Dodgers and now gets a Red Sox side that's struggling against righties, posting a .294 wOBA, 79 wRC+ and .112 ISO. Their 23.0 strikeout rate isn't massive, but it's still the 10th highest in the league, and their walk rate ranks 22nd. If he's in the zone, there's GPP upside.
Edward Cabrera, CHC at CWS ($9,000): You'd expect a lot of eyes on both arms in Seattle, but for me, that leaves Cabrera ignored in the price range between them. He's allowed seven homers in his last four, but still managed 31.0 fantasy points in three of those, and his 3.88 ERA comes with a 3.59 xFIP. The White Sox have a below-average 97 wRC+ off righties and will swing and miss, fanning 24.6 percent of the time. Cabrera seems set up for another 3.5x return, making for a solid cash consideration.
Tanner Bibee, CLE vs. CIN ($8,200): Bibee has had some blow-up games, but overall, he's allowed two or fewer runs in six of nine starts. All three of his implosions came on the road; Bibee has a 1.63 ERA at Progressive Field. The Reds have a 94 wRC+ and 23.6 percent K rate off righties, bring a 3.7 run expectancy to the table here. Finally, it's challenging to make a case for the arms priced below him.
Top Targets
I've fallen into the trap of simply targeting opposing bats in Coors Field. But the Rockies haven't been awful offensively. Pair that with Merrill Kelly allowing a .505 wOBA and 1.216 OPS to lefties, and Mickey Moniak ($4,000) is a viable choice. Of course, looking at Diamondback options is also in play. Ketel Marte ($3,600) is 17-for-48 (.354) with three homers, five doubles and a 1.124 OPS off Kyle Freeland.
This slate feels rare to me where there are two very clear games to target for offense. Taking a top piece or two from each to gain exposure and differentiating elsewhere is my preferred strategy, though targeting a big bat elsewhere and value in those games can be contrarian. San Francisco's Tyler Mahle is allowing a .427 wOBA to righties, a number that rises to .553 on the road. That easily allows Shea Langeliers ($4,000) to be a preferred target.
Give me the discount on Shohei Ohtani ($3,800) if you're looking for different big bats from the obvious games. Jack Kochanowicz is a heavy ground-ball guy without targetable splits. Ohtani's gotten two days off from hitting and homered in his last appearance in the lineup. He's going to get hot.
Bargain Bats
Rafael Devers ($2,800) figures to be very popular in the favorable ballpark. He's hitting .356 with three homers in his last 13. He's just 2-for-11 off Aaron Civale, but the A's pitcher is allowing a .406 wOBA to lefties at home. If the BvP concerns you, Bryce Eldridge ($2,400) can be a cheap power play if he starts.
I don't love the price, but I can almost guarantee zero roster percentages on Ezequiel Tovar ($3,100). It's a cheaper entry to the Rockies, he's hitting .294 over his last five, and is 7-for-16 (.438) with two homers and two doubles off Kelly.
Ozzie Albies ($3,300) always gets a mention when facing a lefty. Atlanta has heavily rotated their lineup based on matchup, which means Mauricio Dubon ($2,800) will hit leadoff. His form is sliding, but he'll at least give you four chances to reach base and come across to score.
Your random BvP play for Friday; Nathaniel Lowe ($2,700) is 6-for-11 off Bibee.
Stacks to Consider
Cubs vs. Sean Burke (White Sox): Seiya Suzuki ($3,500), Nico Hoerner ($3,400), Alex Bregman ($2,900)
I'm not too concerned about the Cubs current cold streak; facing Atlanta's staff is no small task. Burke isn't quite in that tier, and has been incredibly inconsistent, allowing six runs in his last outing after zero in his previous 13.1 innings. He doesn't strike out many and has been worse at home, particularly against righties. This is simply targeting the top three right-handed bats at the top of the lineup. Bregman, in particular, stands out and we can try to get ahead of a pending surge. He's quietly hit in five straight, including a homer.
Twins vs. Chad Patrick (Brewers): Byron Buxton ($4,100), Trevor Larnach ($2,800), Austin Martin ($2,700)
The Twins aren't the easiest lineup to stack; they kind of stink. That's further amplified by Buxton not playing Thursday due to a hip issue, and his status for Friday is very much TBD. The play is the favorable conditions for offense noted in the intro, paired with low roster percentages. Buxton is scorching hot if he's healthy, with seven homers and 12 RBI in his last 12. Martin doesn't offer the same power potential, but he too is on a heater, hitting .366 in his last 10. He's an intriguing standalone option given the price; he could hit fifth and drive in runs if Buxton plays, or he could lead off if Buxton sits. Larnach too is cheap, should hit atop the order and gives us a lefty to target against Patrick. He likely doesn't pitch deep here, but he's allowing a 5.84 road ERA with a .464 wOBA to lefties.
