This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets for Sunday, July 21
The Phillies are off to an 0-2 start after the break and have lost three consecutive games for the third time this season. They'll look to avoid the three-game sweep and a season-worst four-game losing streak when they take on the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday. The Pirates have rallied over the past 30 days to put themselves right in the middle of the hotly contested wild-card race, which has 10 NL teams within five games of one another competing for one of three wild-card berths.
The Best Bets for Phillies vs Pirates
The Phillies will take on the Pirates at 1:35 ET at the beautiful PNC Park and are priced as a –135 favorites using the money line and with a posted total of 9 runs. The weather will be near perfect, with a game-time temperature of 83 degrees amid partly cloudy skies and just 60 percent humidity.
Who Are the Starters?
The Phillies will give the ball to Tyler Phillips, who was recently called up from Triple-A Lehigh Valley and is making his third appearance. In his last start, he earned the win in an 11-5 Phillies victory where he completed 6 innings, allowing four earned runs (including two home runs) against the Oakland Athletics. He will have a great chance to post a quality start today and help his team avoid a four-game losing streak.
The Pirates will have Marco Gonzales on the bump. He'll be making his fifth start of the season and has posted a 1-0 record with a solid 2.45 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 22 innings of work, striking out 15 while walking five. He is pitching in his 10th MLB season and his first season with the Pirates. For his career, he has posted a 66-49 record with a 4.10 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, recording 680 strikeouts and 243 walks over 915 innings of work.
He has allowed a .282 batting average to the current members of the Phillies. Nick Castellanos has hit .357 (5-for 14) against him and is a solid bet for him to exceed his prop bet numbers such as OVER total bases.
How Do These Teams Compare?
The Phillies have the best record in MLB despite being on a three-game losing streak. They have had a significant number of injuries to starters including Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber but still rank 5th in MLB averaging 4.95 runs per game, fifth in total bases (14.45 per game), and first in scoring differential (plus-106 runs). More importantly, they are a patient-hitting team and find ways to get on base, sporting a third-best .331 OBP and a .306 batting average on balls put in play.
The Pirates have an average offense that sits 19th in scoring with an average of 4.22 runs per game but ranks a dismal 26th with a .233 batting average. They rank 26th with a .301 OBP and have a .286 batting average on balls put in play. So the major advantage today is for the Phillies offense to bounce from their last two losses.
The MLB Betting Algorithm of the Day
The following MLB betting system has produced a 1,130-602 record for 65% winning bets that has made the Dime Bettor a monster profit of $137,850 since 2004. The requirements are:
- Bet on a team coming off an upset loss.
- They were favored by at least –125 on the money line in the loss.
- They are favored in this game by at least –125 using the money line.
- They have won at least 58% of their games.
- The game is not the first game of the series.
If the game occurs after the All-Star break, these favorites have earned a 502-263 record for 66% winners and have made a $53,350 profit for the Dime Bettor since 2004.
My best bet that I have taken to the window is on the Philadelphia Phillies, priced as –135 favorites.
Best on the Boston Red Sox
I also like the Boston Red Sox over the Dodgers Sunday Night, backed by a highly profitable betting system that has gone 116-150 for just 44% winning bets and a handsome profit of $17,450 for the Dime Bettor over the past five seasons. The requirements are:
- Bet on underdogs in the last game of a series.
- The opponent scored in five or more innings in the previous game.
