This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets for Friday, August 9
There are fewer than 50 games left in the 2024 MLB regular season and the race to the finish line for one of the three National League Wild Card berths has the potential to be decided by a single game. Every game for these contenders becomes increasingly important to win, especially when playing against the weakest teams in the league.
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The Phillies have gone through their slump every World Series contender endures every season and now have won three consecutive games. As MLB would have it, the Phillies slump ended when they defeated the second-best team based on win percentage in the National League (Dodgers) by winning the last two games of that three-game series. In the first game of their four-game set against the National League Champion Diamondbacks, the Phillies won 6-4 and had runners on base in almost every inning. The spreadsheet below shows how each of the league Champions did after their worst losing streak after the All-Star break (ASB).
| Record After Max Losing Streak Following ASB | ||||||||
| Season | Team | Date Ended | Worse Streak | Wins | Losses | Percentage | Avg Line | Profit |
| 2023 | Rangers | 26-Aug | -8 | 24 | 16 | 60 | -122 | $474 |
| 2023 | Diamondbacks | 12-Aug | -9 | 32 | 22 | 59.3 | 101 | $1,209 |
| 2022 | Phillies | 21-Sep | -5 | 18 | 14 | 56.2 | -102 | $379 |
| 2022 | Phillies | 30-Sep | -5 | 15 | 8 | 63 | 14 | $754 |
| 2022 | Astros | 28-Jul | -3 | 53 | 23 | 69.7 | -160 | $1,919 |
| 2021 | Rays | 29-Jul | -3 | 42 | 23 | 64.1 | -129 | $1,431 |
| 2021 | Dodgers | 24-Jul | -3 | 53 | 22 | 70.7 | -180 | $1,690 |
| 2019 | Nationals | 8-Sep | -4 | 27 | 11 | 71 | -105 | $1,880 |
| 2019 | Astros | 18-Aug | -5 | 39 | 17 | 70 | -200 | $616 |
| 2018 | Red Sox | 22-Aug | -3 | 31 | 18 | 63 | -115 | $1,205 |
| 2018 | Red Sox | 28-Aug | -3 | 29 | 15 | 66 | -117 | $1,390 |
| 2018 | Red Sox | 30-Sep | -3 | 12 | 3 | 80 | 111 | $1,205 |
| 2018 | Dodgers | 15-Aug | -5 | 36 | 22 | 62 | -160 | $165 |
| 2017 | Astros | 13-Aug | -5 | 41 | 23 | 64 | -135 | $857 |
| 2017 | Dodgers | 12-Sep | -11 | 22 | 11 | 67 | -155 | $546 |
| 2016 | Cubs | 27-Jul | -2 | 55 | 25 | 69 | -158 | $1,795 |
| 2016 | Cubs | 16-Aug | -2 | 41 | 21 | 67 | -154 | $1,127 |
| 2016 | Cubs | 16-Aug | -2 | 41 | 20 | 68 | -154 | $1,227 |
| 2016 | Cubs | 29-Aug | -2 | 32 | 17 | 65 | -150 | $776 |
| 2016 | Cubs | 9-Sep | -2 | 25 | 14 | 64 | -146 | $567 |
| 2016 | Cubs | 19-Sep | -2 | 20 | 9 | 69 | -145 | $978 |
| 2016 | Cubs | 30-Sep | -2 | 13 | 7 | 65 | -136 | $453 |
| 2016 | Guardians | 26-Jul | -3 | 48 | 31 | 61 | -122 | $1,153 |
| 2016 | Guardians | 4-Aug | -3 | 44 | 27 | 62 | -120 | $1,382 |
| 2016 | Guardians | 26-Aug | -3 | 32 | 18 | 64 | -109 | $1,288 |
| 2015 | Royals | 8-Sep | -4 | 24 | 17 | 59 | -102 | $678 |
| 2015 | Mets | 4-Oct | -5 | 9 | 6 | 60 | -101 | $331 |
The Phillies have maintained a large lead in the division, but now lead by eight games over the Mets, who went ahead of the reeling Braves, losers of five consecutive games, and if the season ended last night would not be in the playoffs.
Can the Padres Win the World Series?
The team I have mentioned in recent articles is the Padres, who I strongly believe have become the team division leaders would prefer not to face, especially in the playoffs. Since July 1st, they have the second-best record in baseball and are on a current five-game win streak. The biggest problem for them is they are only one game ahead of the surging Diamondbacks, who have the best record in MLB since July at 22-10. The best news is that the Padres have closed to within 2.5 games of the National League West division-leading Dodgers, who have gone just 14-16, ranking 21st in MLB since July 1st.
The Padres have been getting it done on both sides of the ball, averaging 4.72 runs per game, allowing 4.24 runs per game, batting .265 (best in MLB) and posting a solid 4.12 starter ERA. They have put a lot more pressure on opposing pitchers by getting more men on base and in threatening first and third situations leading to more wins.
Best Bets for Padres vs. Marlins
The Padres continue their road trip starting a three-game series against the Marlins, who are in last place in the National League East trailing the Phillies by a whopping 26.5 games. The Marlins are coming off a blowout 10-4 loss to the Reds but have been playing a bit better ball of late.
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What the Markets Tell Us About This Game
From a 10,000-foot view, the Padres are playing some of the best baseball in the league while the Marlins struggle almost every night. So, why in the world are the Padres priced as a modest -125 favorite on the Moneyline? As the saying goes "When something is too good to be true, it oftentimes is". This applies to this matchup, so let's take a deep dive into the analytics to see if this is a solid contrarian betting opportunity.
Who is Starting?
The Marlins will be giving the ball to right-hander Edward Cabrera, who is 2-3 with a 5.96 ERA and 1.49 WHIP including 64 strikeouts in just 48 innings of work. He has an electric arm with his fastball averaging 97 miles per hour (MPH) but can take a little off of this pitch and create many different looks with it that keep batters guessing. His fastball has heavy sinking action and sinks when he takes 3-5 MPH off.
For the Padres, left-hander Martin Perez will have the ball to start tonight's game. The 14-year veteran was acquired at the trade deadline from the Pittsburgh Pirates and is making his second start for his new team. For the season, he is 2-5 in 17 starts with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP including 70 strikeouts over 89 innings of work.
A new starter acquired at the trade deadline by a contending playoff team has a strong tendency to pitch well in their first start with their new team. After all, they want to make a great first impression and solidify themselves in the rotation. However, in their second start, there is a drop-off in performance, especially if the first start was excellent. Perez is coming off a quality start in which he completed six innings scattering seven hits and allowing zero earned runs while striking out seven batters and walking none.
The MLB Betting Algorithm of the Day
The following MLB betting algorithm illustrates why we are betting on the Marlins and has produced a highly profitable 72-43 record averaging a -104-favorite wager using the Moneyline resulting in a 27 percent return on investment (ROI) and a $34,570 profit for the $1,000 per game bettor spanning the past five seasons.
The system has had just one unprofitable season among the past 15 – in the 2018 campaign when it went 10-14, so this is one heck of a money-making machine worth tracking and betting for seasons to come. The requirements are:
- Bet on home teams that have anemic offenses scoring 3.75 or fewer runs per game.
- The home team is priced between a -120-favorite and a +120 underdog using the Moneyline.
- The home team has a starter who is averaging fewer than five innings per start.
If the game occurs after the All-star break, these home teams have gone a very profitable 20-9 for 69 percent winning bets that have averaged a -105 favorite resulting in an incredible 39 percent ROI and a $12,930 profit for the $1,000 per game bettor on just 29 placed bets.
My best bet for the Friday Card is on the Miami Marlins priced as +110 underdogs on the Moneyline (DraftKings Sportsbook).
Pizza Money Player Prop Bets
- Marlins starter Edward Cabrera Over 4.5 strikeouts –125 at DraftKings.
- Phillies starter Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts –129 at BetRivers.
- Padres starter Martin Perez Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +100 at BetMGM.
- Braves Jarred Kelenic Over 1.5 total bases –160 at BetMGM.
- Astros Chas McCormick to hit a home run +830 at FanDuel.
