This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's a light day in MLB on Thursday. There are only seven games, and on DraftKings the four afternoon games are one slate of contests, while the three evening games are another. So here's what I am going to do. I will provide one recommendation in each section of this article for both slates. The early games start at 12:35 p.m. ET, the late games at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Pitching
Jordan Montgomery, NYY at BAL ($7,800): The strikeouts are down for Montgomery, but so is the ERA, which balances things out. His 3.06 ERA through seven starts is solid, but road ERA is 2.21. The Orioles are in the bottom five in runs scored, and I would not be surprised to see them stay there the rest of the season.
George Kirby ($7,800): Kirby's first start was great, and his second start was middling. He had some buzz when he was called up, and having not fallen flat on his face I am willing to keep betting on him. It's surprising to see the Red Sox in the bottom 10 in runs scored, but here they are, thanks to a sub-.300 OBP as a team.
Top Targets
Yes, Eric Hosmer ($4,700) will slow down, but he's slashed .338/.399/.492 to start the season. He also has an .818 OPS against righties since 2020. Kyle Gibson is right handed, and after being dealt to the Phillies last season he had a 5.09 ERA. This year his ERA is 4.10.
Expectations are lower for catchers at the plate, but Daulton Varsho ($5,100) is not your typical catcher, and not just because he also plays in center field. He's hit .246 over the last two seasons, which is reasonable for a catcher, but in 168 career games he has 20 homers and 12 stolen bases. Marcus Stroman, who is returning from the COVID-19 list, has a 5.13 ERA this year.
Bargain Bats
Once Bobby Witt lost prospect status, MJ Melendez ($3,400) took over as the Royals' best hitting prospect, and he's been up with the team recently. The catcher (who also DHs) posted a 1.011 OPS across two levels in 2021. The southpaw will be facing Vince Velasquez, who has allowed lefties to hit .280 against him since 2020.
Ty France ($3,800) is going to be one of those steady, unflashy guys that tends to benefit you when you put him in your DFS lineup. His power numbers are middling (.452 slugging percentage, six homers), but he's hit .325 with a .398 OBP. His hit tool is undeniable. I don't trust the 42-year-old Rich Hill to sustain his 2.89 ERA. He has a 3.36 FIP, for one, and he hasn't finished with a FIP below 3.66 since 2016.
Stacks to Consider
White Sox vs. Carlos Hernandez ($5,300): Luis Robert ($4,300), Jose Abreu ($4,300), Andrew Vaughn ($3,400)
It's an emergency for the Royals whenever Hernandez is on the mound, so it's fitting that his ERA through six starts is 9.11. Sure, his FIP is 5.85, but that's still terrible. Hernandez has also allowed righties to hit .304 against him in his career, so I have three righties for you here.
Robert isn't hitting quite like last season, but a .286 average with five home runs and six stolen bases is nothing to quibble about. Walking isn't his thing, but doing damage for DFS players is. Abreu has a career .288/.349/.509 slash line, so he will be just fine. Also, his home OPS is terrible in 2022, but his road OPS is .877. Vaughn has struggled since returning from an injury, but he had a .933 OPS before he got hurt. He was drafted for his bat, and he's young enough the upside is clearly still there.
Astros vs. Glenn Otto ($6,100): Yordan Alvarez ($5,200), Kyle Tucker ($4,400), Chas McCormick ($3,100)
Otto has improved from his debut season in 2021, but that's because he had a 9.26 ERA in six starts. This year he has a 6.38 ERA, which is still terrible. Otto has not shown he can hack it at the MLB level, and the Astros' lineup by and large has.
With 12 homers, Alvarez is one of baseball's preeminent power hitters. The lefty has slugged .579 in his career. Tucker has gotten his OBP up to .344, and he's picked up seven home runs and eight stolen bases. Since 2020, the southpaw has a .911 OPS against righties. McCormick has picked up the power recently, as he's slugged .527 over the last three weeks. Otto has allowed 1.96 home runs per nine innings this season, and at this salary I think he provides some real upside.
