The Saber's Edge: Digging for Future Saves Now

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Updated on May 19, 2016 3:00AM EST

Some teams are always looking to pick up additional saves to move up the rankings. In most 12-team leagues, seven teams have two closers and five have three (the Reds don't/won't have one). Just picking up a few additional saves could boost an owner's category ranking quite a bit. Additionally, teams in deeper keeper leagues (15-team or more) will find having two closers a luxury and three can mean a top finish. I am going to try to gaze into the future and find those relievers who could be a closer because of a trade and/or the main closer underperforming.

To examine potential future closers, I will group the teams into categories. Some closers are talented and helpful for a postseason run. Others are on faltering potential contenders. Some relievers are the ones faltering on potential contending teams. More are on teams who will be happy to sell any piece for a future asset. After looking through the teams, I came up with a list of non-closers who may see saves later this season. This list will always be in flux (see Texas) but is a nice place to start when looking at future values.

One caveat as I go through the teams: any pitcher has the chance to get hurt any day. I know Kenley Jansen is locked in and will not lose his job over production, but health is always a concern. If the league is deep enough, all backup closers are in play.

The Sellers - Teams

Atlanta - The Braves wanted Jason Grilli to take the closers position and run with it. Instead, Grilli decided to make his ERA and BB/9 match at 6.94. Arodys Vizcaino has the closer job, and it will take a decent haul to get him.

Rockies - Even though the Rockies just traded Corey Dickerson for Jake McGee, I could see how moving McGee would be beneficial, but maybe the Rockies don't. If McGee does get traded, Chad Qualls or Miguel Castro likely would become the closer. Neither is a great option, though.

Marlins - I could see A.J. Ramos and any other player not tied down moved at the deadline (this is the Marlins). David Phelps or Kyle Barraclough could get saves if Ramos is moved.

Brewers - This is an easy call with Jeremy Jeffress getting traded and Will Smith building up his trade value for next season. Now, Will Smith is not guaranteed to be the closer as he is not back to throwing 100 percent and could need season-ending surgery. In deeper leagues, teams may need to keep an eye on Michael Blazek or Tyler Thornburg as the potential closer if/when Jeffress gets traded.

Phillies - Jeanmar Gomez's value might never by any higher, considering he leads the majors with 14 Saves. The Phillies control him for one more season before he becomes a free agent, so he has some value beyond the end of this season. The Phillies do have Hector Neris waiting in the wings to take over the closer role if they move Gomez.

Padres - I have no idea how Fernando Rodney continues to close at his age. He hasn't even given up a run yet this season. I don't think teams will trade for a 39-year-old pitcher for their playoff push, but maybe. If so, Brandon Maurer or Kevin Quackenbush could get a few Saves.

Will Want to Trade, But Can't - Teams with closers, but their closers stink

Diamondbacks - I just don't see any way a team will want Brad Ziegler, so he is likely to keep the job all season. Now, there are some decent desirable pieces further down the depth chart (Daniel Hudson and Tyler Clippard) who might get traded to help a contender's bullpen.

Reds - What a dumpster fire. This is a mess. I see either Tony Cingrani or Ross Ohlendorf as the closer with both having the skills to keep the job with a little luck. For this season, I would take a chance on both getting the closer's role, but I am leaning Ohlendorf because his projected walk rate is a little lower.

Angels - Teams aren't going to fight over the rights for Joe Smith or Huston Street. I expect one or the other to be the Angels' closer at the season's end. Now, I could see a possibility of Fernando Salas or Cam Bedrosian sneaking into the closer's role if Smith fails before Street returns from the DL.

Twins - I could maybe see teams making a move for Kevin Jepsen or Trevor May, but not really. Neither will be traded to become a closer, so their value will stay limited with that route. Now, I do give May a decent chance for some saves because Jepsen has not been lights out and has a bad skill set.

A's - Considering the 35-year-old Ryan Madson is the team's closer with 6.6 K/9, I don't see much demand for these relievers. The rest of the bullpen is just as shaky, though I could see a scenario where Sean Doolittle wins his job back if Madson falters.

Possible Sellers - Teams who will sell unless they turn their seasons around and meet preseason expectations

Astros - The Astros traded quite a bit to get Ken Giles, so I don't see them trading him (even though they should). I do see Luke Gregerson getting moved with Giles getting his closer role back.

Royals (Also could be "statistically shaky closers" below) - If the Royals' starters continue to get blown up and not even give their bullpen a chance, I could see one or more arms get moved. Both Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera are good enough to step in and be most team's closer. Usually, closers with a 1.42 ERA aren't on shaky ground, but I think Davis may hit a rough spot this year because his fastball velocity is down ~2 mph and he is posting a 4.3 BB/9 with a 4.56 xFIP.

Yankees -Aroldis Chapman is as good as gone if the Yankees aren't contending since he is a free agent next season. Andrew Miller will then step back into the closer's role.

Rays - The Rays likely will move any piece they can if they are not contending, which will put both Alex Colome and Brad Boxberger on the trading block. Also, before any trades, the team will need to figure out who the closer is since Boxberger has been on the DL all season.

Statistically shaky closers - Teams with a previously good closer who is underperforming expectations

Indians - OK, let me start with a simple quiz, which pitcher is the closer (Cody Allen) and which is the setup man (Bryan Shaw):

PITCHER	K/9	BB/9	R/9	ERA
Number 1	10.0	4.1	2.4	6.46
Number 2	9.8	5.7	1.7	5.17

Basically, both pitchers have been the same (Shaw is first) with horrible stats besides the strikeouts. I think Shaw would be the closer if his stats would be a bit better. I think the Indians will stay with Allen, but I could see them make a move for another closer if Allen is still struggling months from now.

Cardinals - Everything is rosy in the Cardinals' bullpen since Trevor Rosenthal has maintained his 1.50 ERA with a 7.5 BB/9. He is basically spotting the opposing team an extra base runner every time he takes the mound. I could see the walk rate bite him, but it may not. The Cardinals have two good replacements, Kevin Siegrist and Seung Hwan Oh, who could step in. Both are pitching better than Rosenthal this season.

Nationals - I don't get how Jonathan Papelbon as kept it together as a closer with a 6.3 K/9 and the lowest groundball rate of his career (35 percent). He does have 11 shiny Saves, but I could see him fall apart any day. Look to pick up Shawn Kelley soon.

Needs a Closer Now - (Possibly) Contending teams who could use a major closer upgrade

Tigers - I have never seen a team constantly needing help with their bullpen more than the Tigers. Francisco Rodriguez was able to get another closer role with Mark Lowe and his 8-plus ERA as the next best bullpen option. Send help now.

Giants - I don't think Santiago Casilla is the answer at closer. He is just not good. The Giants could go with Sergio Romo as the closer and ignore Hunter Strickland if Casilla falters. I think they need to add a major bullpen arm for the playoffs, but the team might not. This is a tough situation to get a read on.

Rangers - Besides the Reds, the Rangers' bullpen looks to be the biggest dumpster fire. Shawn Tolleson was removed from the closer role after giving up a walk-off grand slam to Khris Davis. The Rangers are looking to replace him with Sam Dyson, who is a Brad Ziegler clone (no strikeouts, 6.2 K/9 and all groundballs, 69 percent). Maybe the lefty Jake Diekman will eventually take over. Or they could trade one of their highly touted prospects for another arm or four.

Sitting Still - Teams likely to keep their safe, good closer but who might look to add a piece or two

Orioles - They have a loaded bullpen with some of their deeper options having closer potential. Since they are still in contention, they have no need to move or add anyone.

Red Sox -Craig Kimbrel will remain the closer on this playoff-caliber team. I could see the Red Sox pick up another bullpen arm or two to strengthen the bullpen at the deadline.

Cubs - Like the Red Sox, they have a nice closer in Hector Rondon, but their bullpen depth is a little suspect. I could see them adding a piece or two.

White Sox - A surprisingly decent bullpen that could maybe use an extra arm. If Chicago happens to fall out of contention, I could see teams come asking about Nate Jones.

Dodgers - They are set at closer, but I would not be surprised if they pick up a handful of bullpen pieces.

Mets - A set bullpen who might need to add an arm depending on health at the trade deadline.

Pirates - This bullpen is acceptable for a playoff team. It's better than average, but not much better.

Seattle - This bullpen is generally effective with depth. People might not love Steve Cishek, but he has been acceptable this season. I could see him falter, but picking his replacement is a major roll of the dice with Joaquin Benoit, Nick Vincent, Joel Peralta and Tony Zych possible replacements.

Toronto - This bullpen reminds me of the Dodgers a bit. Roberto Osuna has been steady while the rest of the bullpen melts down around him. Toronto needs to find someone (or ones) who can give them stable production with Brett Cecil and Drew Storen horrible this year. I don't think Jesse Chavez and Gavin Floyd will be the answer.

Ranking non-closers for potential 2016 Saves (non-injury related)

1. Andrew Miller
2. Brad Boxberger
3. Ross Ohlendorf/Tony Cingrani (whichever one doesn't become the official closer in Cincinnati)
4. Shawn Kelley
5. Hector Neris
6. Trevor May
7. Sean Doolittle
8. Jake Diekman (assuming Sam Dyson takes over as the Rangers closer)
9. Sergio Romo/Hunter Strickland (depends on Romo's role once he gets off the DL)
10. Kelvin Herrera
11. Ken Giles
12. Brandon Maurer/Kevin Quackenbush
13. Will Smith (if he can come back healthy)/Michael Blazek/Tyler Thornburg
14. Miguel Castro/Chad Qualls
15. Joaquin Benoit/Nick Vincent/Joel Peralta/Tony Zych
16. Bryan Shaw
17. Kevin Siegrist
18. David Phelps/Kyle Barraclough
19. Fernando Salas/Cam Bedrosian