Collette Calls: Which Boats Are Rising?

Wikipedia tells us (so it must be true) that the phrase often credited to President John F. Kennedy Jr. used in the title of this article was, in fact, created by the New England Council. We heard the phrase often this past offseason as many talking or writing heads, present company included, used it to describe what could likely happen with stolen bases and run production in the 2023 season. However, it certainly does not feel like all boats are rising under this tide of new rules.

I was having this conversation via text exchange with my friend Rob McCabe the other day. You'll remember him as the creator of the FAAB efficiency topic I wrote about earlier this season and you may have also heard him on the most recent BaseballHQ Radio podcast with Patrick Davitt. (I am guesting there next week.) He was prepping for his appearance and we were discussing our thoughts on how some of the statistics were playing out this season, specifically runs, RBI and steals. The new rules have certainly had an impact on fantasy baseball, but where exactly is the impact happening?

The distribution of runs scored this season is where I would like to begin this investigation by first looking back to how runs were distributed on this date last season. 38 different players had at least 50 runs scored by this time last year, led by Aaron Judge at 74 runs. This season, 49 different players have scored at least 50 runs at this point led by Ronald Acuna Jr with 85 runs:

We are not seeing the changes in the lower runs scored groups as much as we have in the upper levels. The surprising part of this is that there are very few surprises when you look at who is leading the league in runs right now:

Most players on that list are essentially those who we would expect to see on top of the leaderboard based on their talents and their spot in the lineup. Lane Thomas and Josh Jung may be the biggest surprises of the bunch, as neither was expected to have the type of fantasy season they've had to date, but the rest of the list passes the sniff test. The new environment has not lifted all the boats here, but those who have historically done well continue to do so and at a slightly higher rate.

RBI stand out this season given the influx of runners in scoring position thanks to steals. The distribution of RBI holds true for the bottom of the chart, but the top tiers have certainly seen a spike in production overall:

Adolis Garcia pacing the league is not something many would have expected, but the biggest surprise of them all has to be Josh Naylor. The Guardians offense has struggled to score runs for most of this season, but Naylor seemingly drives in whatever runners are on base when he is up. Jonah Heim is a close second given we rarely see a catcher with this type of run production in a season. Alec Bohm's recovery at the plate has been a pleasant surprise, but this leaderboard feels rather chalky with the expected names proliferating it:

Steals were the predominant area where the rising tide verbiage focused because it was assumed by many that those who would run would continue to do so while everyone would get a bit of a bump. The collective wisdom undersold what we have seen this season:

As games began on July 19th, the league was on a pace to steal 3,490 bases this season, which would end up being a 40.4 percent increase over last season. Both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Esteury Ruiz have already stolen more bases in 2023 than anyone did in the entirety of the 2022 season, and 16 players have at least 20 steals this year. This is where we have seen several surprises on the leaderboard:

Nobody had the likes of Bae, Walls, Hoerner or Castro doing what they have done this season. We have additionally been surprised with the playing time Duran has gotten this season, while De La Cruz literally hit the ground running once he was promoted in June. The other names are mostly who we expected to see on this list, but it's the volume of the steals which nobody expected would happen this year. Calls for a 30 percent increase in steals were called too aggressive in March, yet the league very well could increase steals by 40 percent this season.

At the end of the day, the rising tide feels like it has raised both the floor and the ceiling for the elite hitters and speedsters in the game more than anything else. While many have seen a bump, the best of the best are cruising on the waters. Perhaps it is time to once again entertain more of a stars and scrubs type approach to drafting given how well the stars are doing with the new opportunities provided to them.