Collette Calls: Watching Workloads

I was a bit under the weather on Saturday, so I shelved my plans to run in the morning and then catch up on some DIY projects around the house, choosing to rest up most of the day instead. I spent the down time as I normally do; watching baseball and interacting with social media friends either on BlueSky or in the awesome Slack community with fellow Joe Sheehan newsletter subscribers. I ended up in concurrent conversations on both sites discussing what is happening with Zac Gallen this season, just one year removed from his incredible season. Gallen's numbers have worsened almost across the board just one season after he won the triple crown of pitching for most innings, most pitches thrown and most batters faced during the 2023 season. That workload included the extra stressor of pitching in the postseason and was the primary driver for me recommending others fade him for fantasy purposes this season. The bold prediction wasn't even bold enough, as Gallen has barely been a positive-value fantasy pitcher in 12-team 5x5 leagues this season, coming in at $1 of earned auction value, behind the likes of Nestor Cortes, Matt Waldron and Jose Butto who were drafted many rounds later (if at all). 

The natural thought progression is it look into who may be the next pitcher to suffer such a fate during the 2025 season. I know some of you sickos have mock drafts in September, and others start drafting for next season as early as October. My first 2025 draft will be during First Pitch Arizona as the owners of XFL come together to draft off depth charts alone, so it's never too early to start looking ahead. Regular readers of this column will recall this workload piece I wrote in December of last year and its conclusion that, while not definitive, there was enough data to worry about Gallen and Jordan Montgomery coming into this season. It also showed that each of the last three pitchers who led the league in innings pitched from 2021 through 2023 had moderate-to-severe declines the following season. Walker Buehler's arm gave out and Aaron Nola had one of his odd-numbered-year problems with homers, while Gallen has simply not been himself this season. 

So, let's look at who is currently on top of the innings leaderboard and where things could potentially end up for some of these arms once the postseason concludes. We will start with the top 20 pitchers on the innings pitched leaderboard:

Six of these twenty pitchers will see their workloads stop once the regular season concludes as their teams have no chance at a postseason spot. We can look at their current innings total, their projected innings remaining, and the resulting projected year-over-year increase:

Webb worked the fifth-most innings in 2023 and is currently on pace to lead the league in regular season innings but has not shown much ill-effects from the heavy lifting. His walk rate has returned to where it was prior to 2023, but he's allowed just seven home runs in all these innings, which has once again kept his ERA in excellent shape. Berrios has again struggled with homers as he did in 2022 and can thank an abnormally high LOB% for keeping his ERA under 4.00, as his indicators put his expected ERA just over 5.00. Keller is pacing for consecutive 185+ inning seasons but his team is once again pacing to play golf in October. Anderson, at 34 years old, is in the second year of a three-year deal and has looked more like his 2022 self than the mess he was in 2023. 

Conversely, Irvin is 27 years old and is on pace to push his workload to the levels many teams like to keep things at year over year. It would not surprise me to see Washington cut back his workload a bit if possible later in the season. Skubal is also 27 but turns 28 over the winter. He's been amazing this season and has already equaled his career high in innings. Detroit has a 0.9 percent chance to make the postseason, and that number declines by the day despite their better play of late. At some point, Detroit will likely consider throttling back Skubal's workload, because they have two more seasons of control with him and their future looks better than their present. 

That brings us to Greene, who may have thrown his last pitch of at least the 2024 season as he was placed on the injured list Saturday with elbow soreness. Greene is 17th on the innings pitched list this season but is fourth overall in pitches thrown, trailing only Webb, Luis Castillo and Dylan Cease. Greene's injury news led to this Slack exchange:

24.1 percent of Green's pitches this season have been fastballs of at least 98 mph. That number leads the league for all pitchers, and it could lead to Pittsburgh easing Paul Skenes' workload the rest of the way given that the Pirates are out of contention and that he's the next starter on the list by pitch total while also throwing 31.3 percent of his pitches at least 98 MPH:

Now, let's look at the other 14 pitchers on the list who pitch for teams with at least a 20% chance of making the postseason.

Seattle pitchers have the lowest chance of making the postseason here, and I'm frankly pessimistic about their chances given the struggles of their offense. Gilbert, Castillo and Kirby really aren't an issue unless the club pulls an Arizona and surprises us all by making it to the World Series. Kansas City has a chance to push its way deep into the postseason, and the Royals' top two starters are already projected to experience heavy jumps in workload in the regular season alone. A deep run into the postseason could be problematic for the future of both Lugo and Ragans — particularly the latter, who already has health issues in his history. The Philadelphia staff is pacing behind its 2023 regular season usage, but a deep run into the postseason would likely put Nola at the top of the list for innings worked. Houck is pacing well ahead of last year as he continues to distance himself from his days in the pen, but the workload could get even more problematic should Boston make their way into the postseason and progress beyond the opening round. Cease has fewer than three innings of postseason experience to his name, but heavy lifting by pitch count is nothing new for him. Finally, both New York pitchers are projected to push well beyond what they did in 2023, but Cortes has the better chance to add to that workload in October.

In summary, I am concerned most for Ragans should Kansas City work deep into October with their opportunistic offense. Lugo at least has the experience, but this is the first full season Ragans will have both worked at the major-league level and endured the stressors of pitching in the postseason, assuming the Royals get there. Nola is likely going to be the pitcher who leads the league in innings pitched, and we've already seen the year-after effects on his performance in recent seasons.