Collette Calls: Home Cooking

The narrative for Junior Caminero coming into 2026 revolved around one main theme: Tropicana Field is going to hurt Caminero's production. Here is a sampling what was was said and what was recorded this past offseason:

"Season prediction: Caminero's offensive numbers will be down a bit in 2026, partly because 45 homers is hard to replicate but also because of the aforementioned risk points. His expected wOBA being lower than his actual wOBA last year suggests there was some luck on balls in play."....Replicating 45 home runs is not an easy feat, and when looking at his actual wOBA versus expected wOBA, it suggests that he got a little lucky last season. Can he be lucky again this year? Yes, but you cannot rely purely on luck. 

My only hesitation here is that Caminero is still prone to chasing out of the strike zone. Out of 146 qualified hitters, he ranked 116th in chase rate. Will pitchers figure out how to exploit that more in 2026? Will he hit to the opposite field more this season, perhaps sacrificing some power for a higher average (and fewer pulled grounders, which led to an MLB-high 31 double plays grounded into last year)? With his bat speed, there are multiple directions his offensive game could go, but I'm betting on pure power.

 Like Kurtz, I think Caminero eventually gets to 50 home runs, but that's an aggressive prediction for 2026, especially considering the Rays are back in Tropicana Field after a season at George Steinbrenner Field, a minor league ballpark. The Trop has never been a great home run park -- and Caminero hit .313 at Steinbrenner Field last season compared with .218 on the road.

We even mentioned the issue in our fantasy outlook (I was not the author):

The Rays temporary home park of George M. Steinbrenner Field was one of the more hitter-friendly parks in the league last season, which Caminero took advantage of with a .313/.358/.595 slash line compared to a .218/.266/.477 line on the road. The third baseman's power output was as even as possible, however, with 22 of his homers coming at home. The 22-year-old's power certainly didn't come out of nowhere given that he hit 32 long balls across three levels in 2023, so he should again be a quality source of homers in 2026. Beyond the power, Caminero's home/road splits from last year are worth keeping in mind for 2026 since the Rays are scheduled to return to Tropicana Field, which tied for the second most pitcher-friendly park factor in MLB from 2022 to 2024

Hindsight is always 20/20, but I cannot blame anyone for having some level of concern with this situation. Caminero had just 17 games at home in 2024 and hit two homers with a .266 average but hit .238 on the road with four homers in 26 games. 2025, thanks to Hurrican Helene, drove Caminero outside, but nearly every expert was concerned about Caminero coming back indoors due to Tropicana Field's well-earned reputation of being a pitchers' park.

Tropicana Field has rarely had home run park factors over 100 since 2007. The BaseballSavant park factors show 109 in 2007, 101 in 2008, 105 in 2009, and then a dry spell that lasted until 2023, when it was 114, and then 2024 at 108. This year, with the help of Caminero pushing his thumb on the scale, Tropicana Field has the highest single-season park factor for right-handed homers at 143. Caminero has put the worries to rest by hitting as well indoors in 2026 as he did outdoors in 2025:

The data above shows what I have observed as a fan: Caminero was using a different approach in Steinbrenner Field last season to take advantage of all parts of the park, where he would hit the ball where it was pitched, knowing he could flip outside pitches off or over the shorter right field fences. This season, there has been a more concerted effort to pull the baseball like former teammate Isaac Paredes while attempting to avoid going the other way as often as he did last season:

The approach is clearly working well for him at home, as he is doing what Willy Adames could not do for years: hit well in Tropicana Field. Caminero appears to be the yin to Adames's yang, however, because while the latter hit well on the road, Caminero is a mere mortal away from Tropicana Field:

Ironically, Caminero was more pul happy on the road last season compared to his behaviors at Steinbrenner, but this season, he has not been as pull happy and has instead focused more gap to gap on the road. It will be interesting to see if that approach continues this week in Kansas City and Houston considering how much his numbers have fallen off from his MVP-like numbers at home this season:

Caminero is literally in his own territory this season in terms of his average bat speed as well as the percentage of balls he squares up per swing. There are others who square up a higher percenate, but only Jordan Walker, Oneil Cruz and Nick Kurtz are near him by average bat speed:

The Rays have played exactly 81 games this season, and Caminero has played in all 81 contests. If we simply double his numbers today, he'll get to 44 home runs. There's a chance he could push 50 with the heat on the road and the decreased drag on the baseball. He was a borderline first-rounder coming into this season, but a 40/100/100/.280 line is going to see him entering the top 10 in the 2027 drafts as his growth continues. After all, he has already hit more home runs than Albert Pujols did before age 23, though Caminero is unilkely to sniff the batting average production that the Hall of Fame lock had in his early years. 

This breakdown by Mark DeRosa from mid-May does a fantastic job of showing the changes Caminero has made in his approach this season to fully tap into his potential:

The Rays have 38 home games and 43 road games remaining on the season, but that also includes six road games in Denver and Sacramento in mid-August as well as Atlanta in early September, where temperatures and conditions should still be ripe for power production. We have not seen someone other than Aaron Judge (three times) and Cal Raleigh hit more than 50 home runs in the American League since 2021, but Caminero is showing that he has the juice to do so despite what was perceived as a challenging home environment coming into the season. His special combination of bat speed and bat-to-ball skills are simply too tough to keep down in 2026.