Collette Calls: Don't Reach or You'll Get Burnesd

This column is officially taking a turn into the 2025 season, because nothing I write is going to influence what your team does over the final two scoring periods. The other writers here are providing advice multiple times a week whereas I am advising on a weekly basis during most of the calendar year. I am playing with a foot in the present, as I continue to battle out AL LABR with James Anderson while also trying to place in the money in two other leagues. I am also playing with a foot in the future, as I'm anxious to write up my Bold Prediction accountability series this year while also prepping for my the XFL draft on November 2nd at First Pitch Arizona.

I want to start the shift to 2025 by looking at a pitcher I am very much planning to avoid in drafts: Corbin Burnes. I made this observation on BlueSky over the weekend as I have now watched Burnes allow two of the most improbable homers this season to both Alex Jackson and Jonny DeLuca on the Rays:

I have a leaguemate doing a draft right now where Burnes went 42nd overall in a pitching run that began with Dylan Cease at the 40th pick followed by Logan Gilbert at 41, Burnes, and then Chris Sale at 43rd overall. It is rather funny that the run ended with Sale because he's a pitcher I aggressively faded this season due to a litany of concerns which never came true, as he continues to pitch toward his first Cy Young Award and a potential pitching triple crown. Remember that as you read the rest of this article, because my concerns may once again be wholly unfounded.

Let's begin with workload concerns. Burnes has thrown the third-most regular season innings and the fourth-most regular season pitches since the start of the 2021 season. Only Aaron Nola and Logan Webb have logged more innings than Burnes, while only Nola, Cease and Luis Castillo have thrown more pitches. The table below shows Burnes's workload by year, both by innings and pitches thrown (2024 totals projected):

Going back to 2014, I find the following pitchers who threw at least 3000 pitches in three consecutive seasons. Crazily enough, they all happened over the same span, as we haven't seen anyone throw three consecutive seasons of 3,000+ pitches since these 10 pitchers did so from 2014 to 2016:

• Chris Archer: 2014-2016
• Corey Kluber: 2014-2016
• David Price: 2014-2016
• Jose Quintana: 2014-2016
• Jon Lester: 2014-2016
• Jeff Samardzija: 2014-2016
• James Shields: 2014-2016
• Max Scherzer: 2014-2016
• Madison Bumgarner: 2014-2016
• Cole Hamels: 2014-2016

The following season, six of the 10 won at least 10 games, paced by Kluber's 18 wins, while just four of the 10 pitchers had ERAs below 4.00. Finally, four of the 10 pitchers failed to make 25 starts the follow season, with Price (at age 31) having the worst season of the bunch due to injury. 

We have also seen Burnes's numbers decline since he became a full-time starter when we look at three important measures: K-BB%, CSW% (Called Strikes + Whiffs) as well as Z-Contact% (Zone-Contact):
 

All three of these measures are trending in the wrong direction, and while the trends aren't necessarily linear nor proof of future performance, Burnes's first- and second-half splits fail to alleviate any fears for the future:

Finally, the workload may even be catching up with him in-season, as the velocity on his cutter and sinker have both dipped from August:

Burnes is likely to also shoulder the stress of pitching into the postseason this year as well, as Baltimore hopes he pitches more than just the one start he made in both 2021 and 2023 with Milwaukee as the Brewers exited the playoffs early. Burnes has the motivation of his pending free agency status in play as well and is very likely to lose the comforts of Lord Walltimore, which helps him with home run suppression at home, where he has allowed just six home runs all season to righties. 

In summary, my concerns with Sale prior to this season were about his body failing him yet again. Burnes has missed a couple weeks over the last three seasons with a knee issue but has otherwise made all his starts since becoming a full-season starter and has the mileage to prove it. When you combine the mileage, the pressure of a big new contract with what will likely be his third new team in a calendar year, and the concerning trends in his indicators, Burnes seems primed to be one of the big-name pitchers set to disappoint fantasy managers who reach for his reputation in 2025 drafts.