Collette Calls: 2025 NL Central Bold Predictions

30 down and 30 to go! We're now over half way through the series this year and I have enjoyed the feedback and interactions in the comments as well as on BlueSky. This installment covers 10 more players from the 71 Draft Champions drafts which have taken place since December 1st. I fully realize some of you coming across this read may not yet be subscribers (get the 10-day free trial!) but in true NFBC style, the ADP for this group is 383 with a Min pick of 133 and a Max pick of 739. Whether you are in a shallow league, a standard league, or a very deep league, there is something in this installment for you.

Chicago

Pete Crow-Armstrong is not a top-60 outfielder (ADP 133)

Let's start off bold! PCA is currently 32nd by ADP at the outfield position, going as high as 80th overall. I almost envision folks looking at PCA and thinking back to this time last season when Jarren Duran had an ADP of 161, hoping to strike gold twice with what are perceived to be similar skillsets. So, let's compare 2023 Duran against 2024 PCA by StatCast percentile rankings to see how well this comparison holds up:

Yes, both players can fly in the field and on the basepaths, but the rest of the comparison simply doesn't hold up on paper. The tale of the tape shows a 28-year-old Duran at 6'2" and 205 pounds against a 5'11", 184-pound, 22-year-old in Armstrong. The physical maturity advantage alone made it easier to see Duran's power potential at the major-league level. 

Perhaps this is my own personal Post Traumatic Kevin Kiermaier disorder, but I see PCA more like Kiermaier than I do Duran. I see a player's whose most redeeming skill (speed) is entirely dependent upon one of his worst skills (getting on base). Let's look at some recent examples of players who meet the following criteria, similar to PCA:

1. Either in their first or second MLB season had...
2. At least 400 plate appearances and...
3. Had a AB/K ratio of at least 3.7

• Anthony Volpe 
• Brayan Rocchio
• Michael Massey
• Brice Turang
• Esteury Ruiz
• Will Brennan
• Bryson Stott

Turang and Stott are two names to point to as success stories, but each of those players made much better contact than PCA has so far in his career. Crow-Armstrong has had high strikeout rates throughout his minor league career. We have seen three players in recent history steal as many as 30 bases in a season with a sub-.300 OBP:

1. Billy Hamilton with 56 in 2014
2. Carlos Gomez with 33 in 2008
3. Bobby Witt Jr. with 30 in 2022

Crow-Armstrong is a lot closer to Gomez than he is Witt Jr and someone I associate with more risk than I do upside and want to avoid a draft build which forces me to take the chance on his speed knowing the associated risks with this skillset.

Matthew Boyd is a top-100 pitcher (ADP 328)

Jordan Romano is currently the 100th pitcher off the board at 243 overall, but as a proud member of the Boyd Boyz fan club (which consists of myself, Alex Fast, and a few others) I am ready to be hurt again. Boyd hasn't thrown even as many as 80 innings in a season since dealing with a triceps strain, flexor tendon surgery, as well as Tommy John surgery over the past few seasons. 

The amount of risk associated with a pitcher of this history is extreme, but as we are often reminded, there are two types of pitchers: pitchers who are hurt and those who aren't yet hurt. Boyd, just over a year removed from his Tommy John surgery last season, showed he had his pre-surgery velocity back but also a willingness to adjust his pitch utilization. Previously, Boyd was five-pitch guy who leaned heavily on a four-seamer/slider approach to lefties and a four-seamer/changeup approach against righties. 

Last season, he showed more of a willingness to use his changeup to lefties as he used the pitch 14 percent of the time after previously rarely throwing it to lefties. In all, he employed four different pitches to lefties at least 14 percent of the time, which is something I am increasingly drawn to after hearing Eno Sarris wax poetic about the benefits of an expanded repertoire to make up for the lack of velocity with pitchers such as Chris Bassitt. A pitcher like Boyd who's willing to use four different pitches to both righties and lefties will keep hitters off balance. Boyd is joining a club that already features two other lefties who did this well in 2024 in Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele and I predict he can find similar success if his left arm is truly past all of its recent issues. I recognize the opponent here, but bottle this up and give me more of this in 2025:

Cincinnati

Gavin Lux is a top-15 second baseman (ADP 404)

Lux's recent acquisition by the Reds has quickly inflated his market value as he has already gone inside the top 200 once over the past week:

There are many reasons to be excited about the change in location for Lux. First, Lux moves from a park which has been in the bottom third for lefties over the past three years by rolling park factors (98) to the third-best park (105.) No park has been better for lefty homers in that time than Great American Ballpark (142), but Dodger Stadium was no slouch either (116). Overall, this is an upgrade for a home park. 

Lux also recently said that he started playing all out in the second half of last season as he finally felt comfortable trusting his leg again:

"It helped getting further away from surgery and to start trusting it again," Lux said. "I just tried to do more damage. I think I tried to get on base and control the strike zone so much that I didn't really take any chances to do damage. I kind of just said, 'Screw it, I'll trust my eyes and I'm not going to chase the ball. I'm not going to swing at balls. I'm not going to chase outside of the zone.' Then I just tried to start doing a little more damage, taking more shots."

Lux hit .304/.390/.508 in the second half last season, but the trust in his leg only went so far as he was just two of three in stolen base attempts. Part of that success could have also come from strategically limiting Lux's exposure to lefties, because he saw all of 25 plate appearances against them in the second half with 3 hits and 11 strikeouts in those limited opportunities. 

Lux clearly favors righties over lefties at the plate, but he saw all of 50 plate appearances against lefties last year and year-over-year stickiness for such a split is extremely low. Lux did see 109 plate appearances against lefties in 2022 and hit .263/.330/.354 against them while making better contact. There wasn't much talk about him being in a strict platoon prior to his gruesome 2023 Cactus League leg injury, and there is a good chance Terry Francona looks at what he has in Lux and lets him play nearly everyday in the lineup. After all, Santiago Espinal is no real threat to any playing time and there is not anyone else on the 40-man roster or on the organizational depth chart banging down the door. Simply put, if Lux's health holds up, he could double his home run total from 2024 while challenging 70 runs and 70 RBIs. He could get even more than that if he can push his way up the lineup using his on-base skills should TJ Friedl not get back to his 2023 levels of production. 

Projections do not have Lux getting over 500 plate appearances this season, but I believe there's too much concern about a possible platoon situation which will not play out in Cincinnati.

Nick Lodolo is a top-60 pitcher (ADP 239)

I am ready to once again be hurt by the lefty version of Tyler Glasnow. The comparison hinges upon the fact that getting to 120 innings pitched in a season is nearly impossible for both strikeout machines, as the 115.1 innings Lodolo threw last year in the big leagues is career best. If we throw in his 7.2 innings of rehab work at Louisville, the 123 innings Lodolo threw in 2024 is also a professional best, topping the 116 innings he worked between the minors and majors in 2022. 

Lodolo's medical history is nearly as long as a CVS receipt, as he's dealt with the following issues since coming out of TCU in the 2019 draft:

• Blister
• Shoulder strain
• Back strain
• Stress reaction in his tibia
• and in 2024 alone:
  • Left calf tenosynovitis (residual from stress reaction)
  • Left groin strain
  • Blister
  • Middle finger sprain
     

All that stated, I cannot help but be drawn to the possibilities of what could happen with this guy if he could somehow stay on the mound for most of this season. His K-BB% over the past three seasons (19.5 percent) is better than the likes of Corbin Burnes, Luis Castillo, Dylan Cease and Zac Gallen. His 27.3 percent strikeout rate is 20th best for all starting pitchers over the past three seasons. Before the injuries got the best of him in 2024, Lodolo pitched to an 8-3 record over 14 starts with a 3.33 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while the league hit .219 against him. 

Lodolo throws four different pitches to righties and three to lefties. The dual fastball/breaking ball approach to lefties was more hittable (.259) than the four-pitch approach to righties was (.225) but all 13 of the homers he allowed came against righties. Lodolo reminds me of my college roommate's Fiero car; he was always working on that thing, as one thing or another wasn't functioning properly, but boy did we have some fun times in that car on the open road. That is the experience I believe we can have with Lodolo this season as he sets another career high in workload. That said, you have to have the right team build to take this chance, so get your better health grade types early if you want to go along on this 2025 joy ride. 

Milwaukee

Caleb Durbin is a top-350 player (ADP 466)

Durbin came over to Milwaukee in the Devin Williams deal and has yet to see a single major-league pitch, so stating he will be a top-350 player is one of the bolder moves of this series. Jackson Chourio blew the Bell curve for any kid making the ascension from the farm system to the Milwaukee roster last season, but Durbin turned some heads with his performance in the minors last season as well as how he played in the Arizona Fall League.

Durbin finished the minor-league season with a .275/.388/.451 line while spending most of the time in Triple-A Scranton, with 31 steals in 35 attempts and 53 walks to just 40 strikeouts. Durbin was then sent to the AFL and he went 29 of 30 stealing bases there while hitting .312/.427/.548 with 17 walks and just 6 strikeouts. The quality of play in the AFL is not what it once was, but Durbin's efforts for the Salt River team certainly got Milwaukee's attention.

The challenge for Durbin is he doesn't yet have a starting role in the lineup. Milwaukee's roster is still going through a renovation following the departure of Willy Adames. We currently have Oliver Dunn and Andruw Monasterio in a platoon at third base with Joey Ortiz making the shift over to shortstop. However, Brice Turang played shortstop for the club at times in 2023 and it was also his primary position as a prospect in the system. Milwaukee could decide to move Turang back to shortstop, leaving Ortiz at third, which would then free up a spot to get Durbin's skills into the lineup. There's a possibility Durbin is a slightly better version of Sal Frelick this season. 

The Brewers like to leverage the youthful athleticism they have on their roster and Durbin's ability to put the ball in play to all fields and get on base could really deepen the top of their lineup if the club shifts Garrett Mitchell down and allows William Contreras to take over cleanup duties. Durbin's current ADP is reflective of the current reality and not the possibilities of how his particular skills make this lineup better as it searches for its new identity in the post-Adames era. 

DL Hall is a top-150 pitcher (ADP 520)

Hall is a repeat player from last year, but his prediction was tied to the Baltimore organization as it was done before his trade and role change came about. I looked at Hall as someone who was going to jump in and take over in the Baltimore bullpen because I felt Craig Kimbrel wasn't the right solution. I was right about Kimbrel, but Hall was deal to Milwaukee a few weeks after the prediction in the Corbin Burnes deal, so that never materialized. I will, however, resurface some of what I said about him in last year's prediction:

Hall is by no means without his own flaws, as he's been charitable with walks throughout his career, but around those walks come flashes of dominance, especially once the organization had him work purely in relief. He began the season as a traditional starter in Norfolk and then served as a hybrid opener over the summer, working 1-3 innings as a starter. He moved to pure relief in August, and in the 27 innings he worked between Norfolk and Baltimore over the final two months of the season, he struck out 41 batters while walking nine.

Hall has the repertoire of a starting pitcher, throwing upper-90s heat with a nasty slider to lefties and adding a changeup to the picture when facing righties. All three of those offerings generated 30 percent whiff rates last season in the time he worked in Baltimore, and with Bautista on the shelf, Hall has the highest Pitching+ score among the returning Baltimore relievers from 2023. He trails only Kimbrel in this year's bullpen.

A sprained knee in mid-April shelved most of Hall's season, as he did not return to the mound until mid-August. His fastball got beaten up badly as it was down over two miles an hour from where it was in 2023, but his non-fastballs saved his skin as they were all very effective offerings. Pat Murphy has already stated this offseson that Hall needs to be built up, as there is a possibility both he and Aaron Ashby are both starters in 2025. If Hall does go to the pen, I feel even better about my statement because it would allow him to step into a bullpen situation which presents opportunity. Brandon Woodruff is very unlikely to be ready for opening day and Nestor Cortes ended last season with arm concerns. Either way, there is an opportunity for Hall's abilities to have a chance in some capacity on this team and I am once again here for it. 

Pittsburgh

Spencer Horwitz is a top-200 overall player (ADP 317)

Suckers they be saying they can sleep on Spencer Horwitz. Shake your rump-a to the potential fantasy bargain here in 2025. Horwitz was first sent to Cleveland by Toronto and then to Pittsburgh by Cleveland in the Luis Ortiz trade. Horwitz is exactly what this Pittsburgh lineup needs — someone not named Bryan Reynolds who can get on base at a decent clip.

Reynolds led the club last year with a .344 on-base percentage, but no other full-time player in this lineup had an on-base percentage of at least .330, so it's no wonder Pittsburgh had the seventh-lowest runs scored as a team last season. Horwitz isn't going to fix that problem all by himself, but the current lineup projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa to hit leadoff. IKF hasn't had an on-base percentage above .330 since his rookie season in 2018, and the table below shows the skills differences between IKF and Horwitz; which one do you feel should hit leadoff? I'll even insert the stalwart veteran presence of Andrew McCutchen and let you decide which of the three best belongs setting the table for Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz:

Kiner-Falefa's baserunning value is the only area in which he outperforms either of the other two candidates, but that particular skill is nullified if he cannot get on base. A straight platoon of Horwitz and McCutchen isn't ideal because McCutchen is firmly entrenched in the old man skills category and is now at his best when facing fellow righties. However, either guy is a better candidate for leading off than Kiner-Falefa, who should be hitting 9th in this lineup on days that Jason Delay isn't catching. 

Horwitz has first- and second-base eligibility, which helps on draft day for this season. He may be limited to first base in future seasons, as his middle-infield play leaves a lot to be desired, but this is a bat that should be in the everyday lineup for Pittsburgh and one that should be high up in the order because this team's inability to get on base hurts its run production. 

Braxton Ashcraft is a top-250 pitcher (ADP 739)

Ashcraft, who is not related to his namesake in the Cincinnati organization, is the 377th pitcher on the ADP charts since December 1st. I mentioned earlier how Jackson Chourio blew the Bell curve for all hitting prospects ascending in the Milwaukee organization, so imagine being a pitching prospect in Pittsburgh the year after Paul Skenes and Jared Jones did what they did? Many eyes are on Bubba Chandler, hoping for him to follow that same path this season, but I went with Ashcraft because he has a significant advantage over Chandler in the moment: Ashcraft is on the 40-man roster while Chandler is not. Admittedly, Skenes wasn't on the 40 man roster to start last season, and Pittsburgh made two moves to get him on it.

Chandler is the more talented of the two prospects, but already being on the 40-man roster is an advantage in these situations because it requires one fewer move to get the player onto the active roster. Pittsburgh has an embarrassment of pitching on the team with Mitch Keller, Skenes and Jones along with Chandler, Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington on the cusp of the big leagues in Indianapolis. Neither Bailey Falter nor Johan Oviedo should be considered roadblocks to a role, especially with Oviedo missing last season recovering from an early December 2023 Tommy John surgery.

Ashcraft's season was cut short by a forearm issue which he said was nothing structural and just a reaction to what he was asking his body to do in this SiriusXM interview from earlier this winter:

If you would like to see Ashcraft in action, here's a video of him striking out 12 batters in a game for Altoona this past summer, becoming the first Altoona Curve pitcher to strike out that many in a game since some bum named Tyler Glasnow in 2015:

St. Louis

Ivan Herrera is a top-10 catcher (ADP 278)

Herrera stands to see more playing time behind the dish this season with Willson Contreras moving over to first base. Herrera is coming off a strong rookie season at the plate, hitting .301/.372/.428 with 5 steals in 5 attempts, and is now being asked to take on the primary catching duties with Pedro Pages serving as his backup.

Herrera is intriguing at catcher, because while he doesn't have the typical power for the position, he has the ability to hit for average and run. Herrera hit .281/.414/.453 in nearly 800 plate appearances in Triple-A Memphis over the years while going 25-for-35 in steals, including a run of 19 steals in his last 21 attempts. 

Herrera is currently 19th on the ADP charts for the position, going around the 18th round of drafts, but if your team already has enough power, Herrera makes a solid first catcher option for the upside of what he provides at a position many others do not. Maybe the bold prediction should be Herrera leads all catchers (min. 300 PA) in batting average and steals, because that is in the realm of possibilities for a player with his skillset. 

Quinn Mathews is a top-120 pitcher (ADP 409)

Mathews is currently 164th on the list for pitchers, and 100 spots behind Brayan Bello, who rounds out the top-120 of the current ADP charts. Mathews isn't currently on the Cardinals' 40-man roster, but the early drafting marketplace clearly sees the upside, as Mathews is the third starter off the board by ADP in St. Louis. 

Mathews ripped through the St. Louis farm system after they took him from Stanford, going 8-5 with a 2.76 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and 202 strikeouts in 143.1 innings of work. The strikeouts do not come from overwhelming velocity but rather from a deceptive delivery, an ability to pound the strike zone and an excellent changeup. You can see all of this on display on this lengthy video below that the Springfield Cardinals put together for our enjoyment:

Any pitcher with that type of delivery and changeup is going to do well in Double-A, but Mathews also struck out 22 batters in 16.2 innings of Triple-A around some higher walk totals in his final few outings to end the season against veteran minor-league hitters.

Mathews is but another Steven Matz injury or a move back to the bullpen for Andre Pallante away from having a spot in the rotation. He has the tools to be successful as long as he can avoid the walks that hurt his pitching lines in Memphis as he adjusted to the higher level of talent.