Closer Encounters: An Early Look at Closers for 2024

On Tuesday night, I joined 14 of my friends to kick off 2024 fantasy baseball draft season.

"Wait, 2024?"

"You're drafting WAY too early!"

"You know the current season isn't over yet, right?"

Yep, we've heard it all and know we're degenerates.

Nevertheless, we drafted the first 7 rounds of a $150 entry, 50-round NFBC draft-and-hold league. Rob DiPietro hosted the draft on his Pull Hitter Podcast and posted a link to the draft board here:

My colleague James Anderson is also in the league and wrote up how he approached the draft. I drew pick 11, but I won't provide complete analysis of my team or the entire draft.

I just want to focus on the 16 closers taken in the first 100 picks: 

Before we dive in further, remember this is a draft-and-hold format with no free-agent pickups during the 2024 season.

During last year's "Too Early DC", 12 closers came off the board in the first seven rounds, so the 2024 iteration represented an increase. Given the stability we've seen from closers during the 2023 season, it's no surprise to see a few more closers go early.

Naturally, I took the first one off the board — Felix Bautista — with the fifth pick of the second round (20th overall). As mentioned on the podcast, Bautista has been a "cheat code" this season with 8 wins, 32 saves and 109 strikeouts (and counting) through late-August. The near 50-percent strikeout rate and pristine ratios are helpful too. I see no debate; Bautista is far and away my number one closer for 2024.

I was really interested to see the order of the next tier and was a little surprised to see Clase as the second closer off the board given his ratio regression, lack of strikeouts (compared to other top-end closers) and a blown-save total that's nearing double digits. Clase's job security is obviously still very high, but I'd have taken Josh Hader or Devin Williams over him. Speaking of Hader, his upcoming free agency at the end of this season didn't scare anyone off of drafting him. His 2024 team may be unknown as of this writing, but he's going to close wherever he signs.

While Clase was a surprise as the second closer off the board, I was even more surprised to see Raisel Iglesias drafted as the fourth closer. Upon further reflection, it's not egregious at all. Iglesias is one of the most consistent closers from year to year and Atlanta is likely to be very good for the next several seasons. He may not be near the top of the saves leaderboard, but remember he missed a month at the beginning of this season. I probably would have taken Camilo Doval there, however.

I think the third tier of closers — after Bautista, Hader, Williams and Clase — is where we will see some closer runs in 2024 drafts, and that's exactly what happened in this one. Five closers went during a seven-pick span toward the end of the third round and early fourth. Among them were Alexis Diaz and Edwin Diaz, the latter of whom some thought may slip through the cracks a bit. I may have influenced that particular pick, as all I heard John Fish say was "Diaz" and asked "which one?" Naturally, Edwin went immediately after Alexis and I think the two will be joined at the hip all draft season. I'll be very interested to see who ends up with the better ADP, as Edwin was ridiculously good in 2022, but recency bias may favor Alexis. For what it's worth, Jhoan Duran absolutely deserves to be in this tier after his strong performance in 2022 essentially forced the Twins to make him their primary closer in 2023. He has a shot to finish the season with 30-plus saves.

Two closers I was very surprised to see fall were Jordan Romano and Ryan Pressly. Romano was taken 58th overall, but to see him "slide" to the 10th closer off the board was alarming, though not necessarily incorrect. Looking at the order in which closers were drafted, I'm guessing this is where Romano will settle for 2024 drafts. Pressly's fall to the end of the sixth round (85th overall) was the true surprise, especially since I was considering him 15 picks earlier during the fifth round. One closer I wasn't expecting to be drafted was Adbert Alzolay, but his mid-season emergence as the Cubs' primary closer has certainly caught my attention. I just think the Cubs are in their contention window and won't be shy about pursuing Hader.

The next tier of closers that I expect will go off the board by the end of round 10 include Pete Fairbanks, Evan Phillips, Carlos Estevez and Clay Holmes, but all four have question marks, including health or potential competition for saves. Perhaps Aroldis Chapman becomes part of that mix if he finishes 2023 strong and overtakes Will Smith as the Rangers' closer? Both Chapman and Smith are free agents in 2024, so landing spots will certainly impact where they are drafted. Same with Craig Kimbrel, who is having a resurgent 2023 in his age-35 season.

Let me know in the comments what you thought of the draft overall and how you think the closers will shake out in 2024!