Closer Carousel: Who Earned Saves This Week?

Welcome to a new series here at RotoWire. Every Monday and Friday, I'll take a look back at the previous series and wrap up everything you need to know about the rapidly changing closer market.

These articles will contain five parts:

• Who Earned Saves This Week/Weekend? A division-by-division look at who picked up saves in the previous series, as well as "true" blown saves and a few quick notes.
• Closers I'm Worried About: A breakdown of a handful of closers whose jobs seem the most tenuous, as well as a look at the setup men who could be about to step up.
• Bullpen Deep Dive: A closer look at a bullpen where everything is even more up in the air than usual, focusing on key stats and usage trends.
• Injury Round-Up: A quick look at any currently injured closers and their progress toward a return to action.
• Closer Grid: A snapshot of the RotoWire Closer Grid, which can also be found here.

Who Earned Saves This Weekend?

*A pitcher can earn a blown save if he enters in what is technically a save situation prior to the ninth inning and blows the lead. For fantasy purposes, we don't really care about blown saves where a reliever was clearly being used as a setup man and coughed up the lead. What matters to us is when a reliever was genuinely being given a chance to save the game but blew it. Therefore, for the purposes of this article, I'm only going to report blown saves of that variety.

Closers I'm Worried About

Jeff Hoffman, Blue Jays: Hoffman has featured multiple times in this spot this season, and he's now officially lost his grip on the closer job, with Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins announcing Friday that the team would be moving to a closer committee, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. That comes after Hoffman opened the ninth inning Tuesday but retired just one batter while allowing four to reach base. Louis Varland got Nolan Schanuel to ground into a double play to record the save.

Hoffman has blown three of his six save chances this year and owns a 7.59 ERA in 12 appearances, so it's no surprise the Blue Jays decided it was time for a change. That's without even considering the fact that Toronto made it clear they were open to an upgrade at the position over the winter, only to fail to sign a proven closer in free agency or add one via trade.

The situation remains complicated, however. Typically, when a closer is removed from his position in favor of a committee, he isn't part of that committee but instead spends some time in lower-leverage spots while trying to regain his form. Atkins specifically said that Hoffman would continue to get some save chances, however, which means he's worth holding onto on your bench at a minimum, and may still be worth keeping in your lineup in most formats.

The key detail here is that by many metrics, Hoffman has pitched very well this season. His SIERA sits at 1.93. His xFIP sits at 1.68. His 42.1 percent strikeout rate is outstanding, and his 10.5 percent walk rate isn't that bad. If not for a .609 BABIP, we might be looking at him as one of the top closers in baseball right now. If his luck evens out quickly, don't be surprised if Hoffman is back in the ninth inning before too long.

Worry-o-meter: 5 out of 5

Setup man to stash: Louis Varland. He was the only pitcher explicitly mentioned by Atkins as being in the mix for save chances alongside Hoffman, and he's off to an incredible start this year. In 13 innings of work, he owns a 0.00 ERA and 0.85 WHIP, striking out 41.3 percent of opposing batters while walking just 6.5 percent. He's even added a 58.3 percent groundball rate for good measure. He looks very much like he'd belong in the ninth inning, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see move from a committee leader to a true closer before too long. 

Sidearming groundball specialist Tyler Rogers earned mentions in this space earlier in the year, as the Blue Jays gave him a three-year, $37 million contract over the winter and had been using him in the eighth inning. While it's usually the eighth-inning man who takes over the ninth in the event of a closer change, he'd be an unusual fit in the ninth with his lack of whiffs, so even though he's pitched quite well this year (0.73 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), it's no surprise that it was Varland, not Rogers, who was mentioned by Atkins as a candidate for save chances. In a committee setup, though, don't be surprised if Rogers gets at least a handful of saves, so he's worth an add in deeper formats. 

Devin Williams, Mets: Williams remains the closer in Queens, with Mets manager Carlos Mendoza saying Wednesday that he hadn't considered removing Williams from the role, but it's fair to wonder whether that might change soon. The leash should be long for a player who signed for three years and $51 million over the winter, but a 10.29 ERA and 2.86 WHIP can only be tolerated in the ninth inning for so long.

It's been a difficult week for Williams, but it's also been a strange one. He entered the ninth inning of a tie game Tuesday and allowed all four batters he faced to reach base, giving up two runs to take the loss. Luke Weaver then entered a tie game with two outs in the eighth inning Wednesday and stuck around for the ninth inning after the Mets had taken a lead rather than giving the ball to Williams. Williams had pitched on two of the previous three days and may not have been available.

Things got weird Thursday, as Huascar Brazoban mistakenly went back out to the mound to start the ninth inning despite the fact that the Mets intended to bring in Williams. That meant Williams wasn't technically in a save situation when he entered the game, and he went on to allow three hits and one run before eventually shutting the door.

Williams still owns a strong 31.7 percent strikeout rate, but it's being offset by a 14.6 percent walk rate. He also has a .619 BABIP, so his ERA estimators suggest he hasn't pitched particularly poorly (3.60 xFIP, 3.46 SIERA). The biggest problem for Williams is that his famous "Airbender" changeup simply isn't bending like it used to, losing almost five inches of vertical drop. As a result, the pitch's Stuff+ has fallen all the way from 124 to 83, and hitters have managed a .530 wOBA against the pitch, up from .273 last year. If Williams can't get his signature weapon back, he won't be the pitcher the Mets thought they signed.

Worry-o-meter: 4 out of 5

Setup man to stash: Luke Weaver signed a two-year, $22 million contract this offseason to be Williams' top setup man and would likely be the one to take over the ninth inning should Williams lose his job. Weaver hasn't been particularly good this season, though, with a 5.40 ERA in 10 appearances, and his strikeout rate has fallen from 27.5 percent to 16.7 percent. He leads the Mets in leverage index, which suggests he'd get the next chance, but the opportunity could also go to Huascar Brazoban, who owns a 0.79 ERA on the season and is second on the team in leverage index. Brazoban doesn't miss a ton of bats himself, though, with a 22.2 percent strikeout rate on the season and a 24.2 percent mark for his career. 

Andres Munoz, Mariners: There haven't been reports that Munoz is about to lose his job as the Mariners' closer, but if his slow start to the season continues much longer, it's possible those reports will arrive soon. Following a run of four seasons with an ERA below 3.00 (and a combined 2.29 ERA over that stretch), he now has an ERA of 8.00 and a 1.56 WHIP in nine innings of work.

Munoz's latest poor outing came Wednesday against the Athletics. He entered the top of the ninth with a one-run lead but blew the save by allowing a solo homer to Nick Kurtz. While his teammates bailed him out in the bottom of the ninth and he ended up with a win, he now has a 10.80 ERA and 2.20 WHIP in his last six appearances.

Munoz's underlying numbers aren't bad, however, which keeps him pretty low on the worry-o-meter. His 35.7 percent strikeout rate is excellent, and his 11.9 percent walk rate is elevated but not much worse than his 11.0 percent mark from last season. One thing to note, though, is that his four-seam fastball Stuff+ has dipped from 106 to 95, likely because it's lost three inches of horizontal movement. His slider remains his most-used pitch, but a closer with a below-average fastball could be a problem.

Worry-o-meter: 2 out of 5

Setup man to stash: Matt Brash or Jose Ferrer. Brash is the Mariners' highest-leverage reliever by leverage index (even ahead of Munoz) and has yet to allow a run in 8.1 innings of work. He also has an 0.60 WHIP, though his strikeout rate has dropped from 29.1 percent to 17.2 percent. Ferrer saved 11 games for the Nationals last season before being acquired in an offseason trade. The lefty has a 2.45 ERA in 11 innings of work but a 1.73 WHIP, though that's largely thanks to a .425 BABIP, as his 3.8 percent walk rate is excellent. Like Brash, though, he's not getting many whiffs, with his strikeout rate falling from 21.9 percent to 17.3 percent. 

Bullpen Deep Dive

Chicago Cubs

*gmLI is the average Leverage Index when a pitcher enters the game. 1.0 is average; closers typically sit north of 1.50. 

Daniel Palencia got off to a strong start as the Cubs' closer but hit the injured list a week ago with what was originally called an oblique strain. On Tuesday, the diagnosis was changed to a lat strain, and while he's reportedly responding well to treatment and could resume throwing soon, it's hard not to worry when a pitcher has two strains in the same general area in consecutive months of regular-season play. Palencia also suffered a shoulder strain in September, so even once he returns, he'll come with significant durability questions.

Caleb Thielbar stepped up to record the first two saves in Palencia's absence, but he blew the save Thursday and exited with an apparent hamstring injury. While he's yet to be placed on the injured list, it wouldn't be a surprise if such a move comes soon, and if it does, he'd join fellow potential fill-in closers Phil Maton (knee) and Hunter Harvey (triceps) on the sidelines.

That makes the question of who will get the next few saves for the Cubs a difficult one to answer, but given that the Cubs have one of the best records in the league and are likely to continue generating plenty of save chances, it's worth trying. The answer eventually could be Maton, who was cleared to begin a rehab assignment Friday, but he struggled prior to his trip to the IL and may need to prove himself for an outing or two before getting a chance.

Ben Brown looks to be turning the corner this year and could be the leading candidate, but the Cubs don't seem to want to use him in that role. He's recorded at least six outs in all eight of his appearances this season, and given the success he's having, the Cubs probably don't want to limit him to just one inning.

That could mean Hoby Milner or Riley Martin see some time in the ninth inning in the near future, though neither of them would be an obvious choice. Milner is the Cubs' highest-leverage reliever among those who are currently healthy, but he's mostly a lefty specialist and has more walks than strikeouts this season. Meanwhile, Martin has pitched great so far but is a 28-year-old rookie who's had significant control problems in the minors and has yet to be trusted with high-leverage opportunities. 

Injury Round-Up

Kirby Yates, Angels: Yates has made a pair of rehab appearances as he works his way back from left knee inflammation, allowing a combined four runs. Jordan Romano has had a pair of scoreless appearances since blowing a pair of saves against the Yankees in mid-April, but his ERA remains north of 6.00 for the third straight year. If Yates looks good when he returns from the injured list and Romano continues to struggle, Yates could take over the closer role. 

Josh Hader, Astros: Hader is on the 60-day injured list and won't be eligible to return for another month. He's working his way back from biceps inflammation and has advanced to live batting practice, but the Astros have yet to announce plans for him to begin a rehab assignment. Enyel De Los Santos has stepped into the closer role in his absence. 

Raisel Iglesias, Braves: Iglesias is dealing with shoulder inflammation but is expected to need merely a minimum-length stay on the injured list. Robert Suarez has filled in as the closer in his absence, but Iglesias could be back in the ninth inning as soon as May 5 if he returns as scheduled. 

Daniel Palencia, Cubs: Covered above in the "Bullpen Deep Dive" section. 

Edwin Diaz, Dodgers: Diaz underwent surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow Wednesday. He's expected to be out through the All-Star break, and the Dodgers can likely afford to be cautious with his recovery, prioritizing his readiness for the playoffs above everything else. Tanner Scott received the first save chance since he hit the injured list, but Alex Vesia should be in the mix as well, as he saved a pair of games while Diaz was hurt but not yet on the IL. 

Jhoan Duran, Phillies: Duran landed on the injured list with a strained oblique last Saturday. Brad Keller is expected to fill in for him in the ninth inning, but the Phillies have yet to generate a save chance since Duran's injury. 

Robert Garcia, Rangers: Garcia hit the injured list with shoulder inflammation Tuesday. He was expected to lead the Rangers in saves this season according to most fantasy drafters, but even with the Rangers spreading saves around, he'd yet to save a single game. It's possible that his shoulder troubles explain his poor 6:7 K:BB through his first nine outings, and he could be back in the mix once he gets fully healthy. Jakob Junis appears to be the top option for saves at the moment but may be more of a committee leader than a true closer. 

Edwin Uceta, Rays: A healthy Uceta would likely factor into the Rays' closer committee, but he's been dealing with shoulder issues all year and recently suffered a setback which sent him to the 60-day injured list. There's little reason to hold onto him in leagues without an injured list given that he's unlikely to be anything more than a committee member once he returns. Bryan Baker is the Rays' top option for saves at the moment.

Carlos Estevez, Royals: It's now been 10 days since Royals president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo said that he was hopeful Estevez would be ready for a rehab assignment within five days, though there haven't been reports of a setback. He's been on the injured list with a bruised foot since getting hit by a line drive in his season debut. His big drop in velocity is a bigger issue than his foot injury, but with Lucas Erceg struggling to a 5.79 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 5:7 K:BB in 10 appearances, Estevez should get a chance to reclaim his job once healthy. 

Closer Grid

This article will be published every Monday and Friday this season, taking a look back at the previous series' top closer news. For more closer updates, check out the RotoWire Closer Grid, which changes daily. 

Here are a few notable changes from Monday's grid:

• Braves downgraded from High to Medium security after Raisel Iglesias' shoulder injury.
• Orioles downgraded from High to Very Low security with Ryan Helsley on the bereavement list.
• Blue Jays downgraded from Medium to Very Low security, with a committee led by Louis Varland replacing Jeff Hoffman as the closer.

Here's how the whole thing looks as of Friday evening:

*part of a committee

Questions about any of the closers covered above or any relievers you're considering picking up off the waiver wire? Let me know in the comments below.