Beat Jeff Erickson Draft Review

Last week I drafted in the first "Beat Jeff Erickson" draft of the season, part of the RotoWire Online Championship over at the NFBC. In this format, we're competing for the prize money for finishing in the first two spots in our league, as well as the chance of winning the overall $150,000 grand prize. Additionally, anyone who beats me in the league wins a free subscription to RotoWire. Typically I do two such contests, but due to time constraints I only drafted one very rough team that gave up plenty of subscriptions last season. Yordan Alvarez was my second-round pick, my first starter was Blake Snell, my first closer was Tanner Scott, and I got the Rangers and Red Sox bullpens wrong, among other sins.

Armed with a better closer plan and hopefully better research, I think I'll have better results. Here's the full draft grid — I'm Team 8.

My Roster

1.8 Paul Skenes - A continuing theme to my 2026 season is the lack of an early draft pick, and my frustration on missing out on the top six hitters in the player pool. This could be solved by playing in more leagues somehow, or by playing in more auctions, where I can buy one of those said hitters if I budget for him. I will have plenty more leagues, and I'm also signing up for an NFBC Live Auction league when I go to Vegas for Main Event weekend.

But because I keep drafting from the same narrow band of picks eight through 11, I'm trying to diversify my selections, and this is the first time I've started a draft this season with Skenes. In recent drafts I've started with Elly De La Cruz, Garrett Crochet and Kyle Tucker in this range, and in an earlier draft I started with Corbin Carroll before he broke his hamate bone. I haven't yet drafted Julio Rodriguez in this spot.

Taking an ace in the first round requires a different team build than in other formats. Do you follow that up with a second early ace to ensure you lock down the pitching ratio categories, or do you load up on hitting to "catch up" against the teams that snagged elite bats ahead of you? I lean towards the latter strategy, though when I finish up my TGFBI draft later, you'll see that I went with a "pocket aces" approach. I have Tarik Skubal as my top starting pitcher, but the margin between Skubal and Skenes is very narrow. I think that the Pirates have incrementally improved, to the point where the wins gap between Skubal and Garrett Crochet against Skenes has narrowed.

2.17 Fernando Tatis Jr. - Last season, while picking from the wheel (the end of the first round) in the 15-team Main Event, I took Jackson Chourio and Yordan Alvarez over Tatis. This year, I'm reversing that decision, though in reality the choice was more between Tatis and Junior Caminero. I went with Tatis because of his stolen bases and the hope that he hits more homers now that he's another year removed from his past injuries.

3.32 Ketel Marte - This was my first and most likely only league where I'm rostering Marte. It's not that I don't like him as a player, but I think I would have been better served with a player that either has a higher power or speed upside. I know I'm arguing against my own pick here, and Marte showed in 2024 that he's capable of hitting 35-plus homers, but I think his 2025 production is more likely.

4.41 Cade Smith - I played chicken in the third round to try to get a top-five closer with this pick, and to my surprise I had my choice of Smith, Andres Munoz or Jhoan Duran. I have some exposure to Munoz and Duran already, so I diversified and went with Smith in this one.

5.56 William Contreras - Frequently I've been drafting one early catcher, and usually I land on Contreras slightly ahead of Shea Langeliers and Ben Rice, though I'm fine with either of those two catchers as well. I haven't drafted Rice anywhere in a redraft league yet, but that could change over the weekend.

6.65 Maikel Garcia - I went with Garcia over Austin Riley here, but it was a 50-50 call. Garcia should be able to sustain the power jump he displayed last year, particularly with the fences moving in and down in Kaufmann Stadium. But Riley is a better pure power bet, and that might have been a better roster fit given my earlier choices.

7.80 Jackson Merrill - I'm buying the dip on Merrill, who was sidelined with a trio of injuries (concussion, hamstring strain, and an ankle sprain) for a good chunk of 2025. Those injuries also explain the collapse in his stolen bases and attempts. A rebound should be in order.

8.89 Agustin Ramirez - Ramirez's woes in stopping opposing baserunners doesn't concern me for redraft purposes this season, and it might even lead to him getting more starts at DH, which is even better. I like Ramirez's hard hit rate (aEV = 90.8 mph), combined with a 19.8 percent strikeout rate and .253 BABIP, all of which suggests he could improve upon his .231 batting average.

9.104 Willy Adames - Adames had an .828 second-half OPS and end up hitting 30 homers and stealing 12 bases despite the horrific start. Year 2 with the Giants should be better than Year 1.

10.113 Christian Yelich - What does a power regression for Yelich look like? Is it 22-24 homers, or is it 16-18 homers? All draft season I've been betting on the former. If he plays 10 or more games in the outfield to gain eligibility there, all the better.

11.128 Drew Rasmussen - Rasmussen made it through his first full season back without any setbacks, throwing 150 solid innings. The way the Rays use him (never more than 22 batters or six innings pitched last year) limits his innings upside, but the quality of his innings has never been in doubt.

12.137 Dennis Santana - The list of closers who clearly have the job was nearly evaporated at that point, and I'd prefer to go with Santana and use just one spot than pray I get the right Brewers or Astros reliever.

13.152 Cam Schlittler - Schlittler survived a little scare with his back to have a late spring training start, but he's picked back up where he left off in the playoffs, with 10 K's in six innings this spring. I feel fortunate that he was available here, after waiting awhile for my third starter.

14.161 Steven Kwan - Did I over-protect my batting average with Kwan, instead of taking a power bat? Possibly so, though I think in a 12-team league I can find more late power bats than full-time hitters who help one's average. This pick did cost me Jac Caglianone — I was hoping to get them both.

15.176 Spencer Torkelson - This was the first of two mid-to-late power bats at first base for me. I think he pairs well with my batting average approach from earlier, which allowed me to add some power bats with lower averages like Torkelson.

16.185 Shane Baz - I'm a little concerned with the Rays choosing to trade away Baz to the Orioles, and bummed that I won't get him in Tropicana Field. But even pitching in Camden Yards should work out better for Baz than it did at Steinbrenner Field last season, where his ERA was over two runs higher than it was on the road.

17.200 Bryson Stott - I've been landing on Stott as a solution at second base fairly often. He has a stable if not super exciting skill set, but sometimes you need building-block players. You can reasonably expect a .255ish batting average, 10 homers and 20 stolen bases from Stott.

18.209 Matthew Boyd - Boyd was the next highest starting pitcher on my board, giving me seven pitchers, including five starters, at this point. I wasn't thrilled with the next few options there, whereas there were more outfielders and corner infielders available at this point. Boyd will be the Opening Day starter for the Cubs, and while that's nice to have a starter on a good team, this isn't a strong endorsement.

19.224 Jake Burger - On one hand, Burger should be in better physical condition this season and is primed for a bit of a bounce back. On other hand, him playing half his games in Globe Life Park terrify me. Still, there's 30-homer upside if all goes right.

20.233 Kerry Carpenter - I'm looking for a 20-60-60 line from Carpenter, though probably not much more than that due to his struggles against left-handers.

21.248 Kevin McGonigle - Most of my picks in this range have been cromulent, but I'm truly excited about this one. I took McGonigle in this spot in TGFBI as well; my guess is he makes the team out of spring training right away, and even if he doesn't, when he ultimately gets the call he'll hit the ground running. I love everything about him as a hitter — great batting eye, great exit velocity, you name it. He's underpriced here, but I've seen in the early NFBC Main Events he's starting to go earlier.

22.257 TJ Friedl - After taking a swing with McGonigle the previous round, I went boring here with Friedl, who will be batting leadoff for the Reds and getting almost all the starts in center field. 

23.272 Andrew Painter - Painter hasn't been stretched out too far yet in his quest to make the Phillies' Opening Day rotation. But this is a clear upside play for a pitcher we once thought was among the best pitching prospects in baseball. He's still only turning 23 this season.

24.281 Joey Cantillo - I got snaked on Cantillo's teammate Parker Messick by one pick, but Cantillo is a decent consolation prize. There's a risk that Cantillo opens the season in Columbus, but I'm encouraged by his 15 strikeouts in 15 spring training innings. But it's a little convenient to wave away his poor ERA in that stretch. The good news is that he's out of options.

25.296 Jung Hoo Lee - Lee is another complier, a player who will get copious chances to add to his counting stats by the sheer force of playing time towards the top of a Giants lineup that should be fairly deep. If that sounds like something less than a ringing endorsement, you'd be right. I would have been better off with Dominic Canzone here.

26.305 Clay Holmes - The earlier I draft, the more I want to fill my reserves with more shots at pitchers, most of them starters. Holmes is fighting for a rotation spot with the Mets, who might possibly go with six starters.

27.320 Brady Singer - Singer's spot in the Reds' rotation is secure, and I liked how he finished 2025. Ironically, Singer was far better at home (3.29 ERA/1.11 WHIP) than on the road (4.88 ERA/1.39 WHIP). 

28.329 Kirby Yates - With the news of Robert Stephenson's setback, Yates has gotten more expensive as the more likely Angels closer. His NFBC Main Event ADP is up to 258.

29.344 JR Ritchie - Ritchie might not make the Braves' Opening Day roster, so we'll see how patient I can be in hanging onto him. But he's been a revelation so far this spring on a team that could really stand to have some good news.

30.353 Reid Detmers - I'm unconformtable having two Angels on my roster, but hey, Detmers is available for a reason. Podcast buddy Scott Jenstad likes him as a late strikeout upside play, and that's good enough for me.

This was a really quick draft. We were done in under two hours, and there were a lot of NFBC veterans in this room, which always makes it a good challenge. As always, I'll be turning over a good portion of the bottom (hopefully!) of this roster through free agency over the course of the season. I'll especially keep an eye out for supplemental power bats.