I examined potential buys and fades based on barrel rates in May last year. We'll revisit that idea this year, examining five hitters posting quality barrel rates that we may want to buy into. Sometimes a hitter's barrel rates and average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives don't align, and sometimes they do. While luck and park factors come into play, the underlying power skills suggest buying into these players, whose actual power production should follow soon.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B, TOR)
It might feel weird to suggest buying one of the best hitters in the league, but that's the case with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero's 13 percent barrel rate per batted ball event (83rd percentile) and 9.7 percent barrel rate per plate appearance hover slightly above his career average. However, Guerrero's home run per barrel rate (36.4 percent) doesn't align with his marks from 2022 (54.2 percent) and 2021 (64 percent). Guererro's home run luck factors tell a similar story, as his 13.4 percent HR/FB mark in 2023 is five points lower than his career rate. The rolling graph below shows the dip in HR/FB, with the rising groundball rates also contributing to his dip in power:
Have patience with Guerrero, as it's hard to poke holes in his profile given that his plate discipline and exit velocity metrics remain similar. The continued knock on him is his high groundball rate, but he boasts elite exit velocity numbers when he elevates it. Buy into Guerrero's barrel rates
I examined potential buys and fades based on barrel rates in May last year. We'll revisit that idea this year, examining five hitters posting quality barrel rates that we may want to buy into. Sometimes a hitter's barrel rates and average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives don't align, and sometimes they do. While luck and park factors come into play, the underlying power skills suggest buying into these players, whose actual power production should follow soon.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B, TOR)
It might feel weird to suggest buying one of the best hitters in the league, but that's the case with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero's 13 percent barrel rate per batted ball event (83rd percentile) and 9.7 percent barrel rate per plate appearance hover slightly above his career average. However, Guerrero's home run per barrel rate (36.4 percent) doesn't align with his marks from 2022 (54.2 percent) and 2021 (64 percent). Guererro's home run luck factors tell a similar story, as his 13.4 percent HR/FB mark in 2023 is five points lower than his career rate. The rolling graph below shows the dip in HR/FB, with the rising groundball rates also contributing to his dip in power:
Have patience with Guerrero, as it's hard to poke holes in his profile given that his plate discipline and exit velocity metrics remain similar. The continued knock on him is his high groundball rate, but he boasts elite exit velocity numbers when he elevates it. Buy into Guerrero's barrel rates leading to a binge of home runs soon. Thankfully, Guerrero hasn't hurt us in the other categories, but we still expect the power skills which he's continued to show to lead to actual home runs.
Tommy Pham (OF, NYM)
Earlier in the season, Tommy Pham seemed like an afterthought, with fellow right-handed outfielder Mark Canha ahead of him on the depth chart. However, Pham has since flashed some of the best barrel rates of his career, with a 15.2 percent Barrel/BBE and 9.9 percent Barrel/PA. Over the previous two seasons, Pham had a 48.5 percent home run per barrel rate, but that dipped to 42.1 percent in 2023. Since Pham's contact quality metrics jump off the chart, we'll want to buy into the potential home run output. That's especially so with Pham's 97.8 mph exit velocity on flyballs and liners, which ranks eighth among qualified hitters.
Pham posted a 96.1 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives in 2021 (ranked 34th in the league) and a 94.8 mph average (57th) in 2022, so it's familiar territory for him, albeit not to this elite level. He isn't using a more aggressive approach, as his chase rate has actually dropped, though there's been a bump in his pull rate, which comes in at 43.2 percent, up five points from his career average. It's a sustainable pull rate and profile for Pham, so trust the exit velocity and barrel rate gains to translate to more home runs. Pham has benefitted from some luck with a 20.5 percent HR/FB rate, his highest since 2019, but the metrics point to more power in the tank.
Trent Grisham (OF, SDP)
Fitting with the trend, Trent Grisham has set career bests in Barrel/BBE (15.2 percent) and Barrel/PA (8.8 percent) in 2023. Grisham's 28 percent home run per barrel rate (2023) isn't close to his 74.4 percent HR/Barrel rate across 2021 and 2022. That gives reason for pause, as it indicates Grisham potentially maxed out on his power output in the previous two seasons.
Grisham uses a pull-heavy (43.6 percent) flyball (44.4 percent) approach to tap into his power, particularly in 2022 and 2023, as seen in the rolling graph above. The downside with that profile is a low BABIP and in turn a low batting average floor. That's slightly more concerning when considering that his contact rates fell about four to five percentage points from last season. Grisham typically boasted elite chase rates, but he's displayed a more aggressive approach this year with a 43.9 percent swing rate, four points higher than his career average.
From an HR/FB standpoint, the luck factors should shift in Grisham's favor. In 2023, Grisham's 8.5 percent HR/F hovers four or five points lower than it sat in 2021 and 2022. Since Grisham has already matched his total barrels from 2022, hence the higher barrel rates, his home run output should improve moving forward. Though something above 70 percent in HR/barrel rate seems unsustainable for Grisham, it's fair to expect that number to shift somewhere in between where it is now and where it was the last two seasons. Thankfully, Grisham keeps his fantasy value afloat with the stolen bases, but the limited counting stats and batting average ceiling hurt him.
MJ Melendez (C/OF, KC)
After posting quality power skills as a rookie, MJ Melendez has followed that up with identical or better numbers this year. Melendez rocks an 11 percent barrel rate, up half of a point from 2022. He had a homer-per-barrel rate of 51.4 percent last year but is down to only 30 percent in 2023. Unsurprisingly, Melendez also destroys baseballs when elevating them, evidenced by his 95.4 mph exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (57th among qualified hitters). The only other catchers with a better average exit velocity on those types of hits include Sean Murphy, William Contreras and Willson Contreras. Filtering for hitters with an average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives of at least 95 mph and a double-digit barrel rate, we find the hitters below with a barrel rate between 11 to 13 percent, including Melendez.
Like Trent Grisham, Melendez's batted ball approach may hinder his batting average upside, as he owns a 43.6 percent pull rate and a 46.4 percent flyball rate. Melendez's HR/FB dipped from 13.1 percent to 7.1 percent in 2023, aligning with his home runs per barrel decline. That could hint at some regression in his favor, but the Royals' home park also ranks third-lowest in Home Run Park Factors, so it might remain lower than one would hope. Park factors aside, Melendez exhibits the power skills to buy into the fact that his barrel rate should turn into power production soon.
Andy Ibanez (2B/3B/OF, DET)
After researching hitters extensively, there seems to be a trend of those who play in pitcher-friendly parks underperforming their power skills. Andy Ibanez fits that mold, though he lacks the track record of fantasy viability and power, posting a career barrel rate of 6.9 percent prior to this season. Ibanez boasts a 12.7 percent barrel rate and 9.9 percent Barrel/PA, which sits a few points higher than his career averages. Maybe it's a fluke for Ibanez, or maybe it's a budding skill.
Ibanez uses a flyball approach (43.7 percent), with a similar rate of balls hit to the pull side (38.9 percent) and center field (36.5 percent). After showing league-average power skills, he made a concerted effort to elevate the ball. Given his limited playing time in the past, it's probably not fair to evaluate his 36.4 percent homer per barrel rate in 2021-2022 in a combined 318 batted ball events and 400 plate appearances. In 2023, Ibanez's home runs per barrel rate of 31.3 percent aligns with his track record.
When lowering the threshold to 100 batted ball events, Ibanez's average exit velocity of 94.9 mph on flyballs and liners ranks 69th, similar to Ian Happ and Cal Raleigh. That supports his barrel rate gains, as it's an improvement on his 93.2 mph exit velocity on flyball and line drives in 2022 and 91.4 mph mark in 2021. Unfortunately, Ibanez's power ceiling takes a hit playing in Detroit, which has the worst home run park factor in the league. Unless Ibanez's power skills translate into fantasy production via homers, runs and RBI, it probably won't be enough to keep him as more than a hitter streamer in deep leagues.
