This article is part of our Mock Draft series.
Our annual Magazine Mock Draft was held in mid-December. We used a 15-team mixed league (NFBC) format, with the following positional requirements:
2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, and 9 P. We also drafted seven reserve players.
We also assumed 20 games played at a position last season for eligibility.
The draft was conducted at CouchMangers.com, and the results can be viewed in full here.
Instead of doing the classic Q&A with the participants of the mock draft, a proven route which will surely be missed by some readers, we decided to weigh the picks against cold, hard NFBC Average Draft Position (ADP) data. The fact of the matter is, given the requisite timing of the mock draft every year (typically mid-December) and the very nature of print media, the draft results are bound to become somewhat obsolete by the time they reach newsstands. Fantasy outlooks will change for a variety of reasons, and by even late February, drafts will undoubtedly play out much differently.
Thus, the discussion of the results must hold up. There is value in getting insight on strategy and sleepers straight from the industry's top experts via a Q&A, but hopefully this approach will prove equally -- and perhaps even more -- beneficial both initially and later on in the draft season, as we will pinpoint some of the most volatile players and give readers an idea of more sweeping, long-lasting trends to keep in mind on draft day. A
Our annual Magazine Mock Draft was held in mid-December. We used a 15-team mixed league (NFBC) format, with the following positional requirements:
2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, and 9 P. We also drafted seven reserve players.
We also assumed 20 games played at a position last season for eligibility.
The draft was conducted at CouchMangers.com, and the results can be viewed in full here.
Instead of doing the classic Q&A with the participants of the mock draft, a proven route which will surely be missed by some readers, we decided to weigh the picks against cold, hard NFBC Average Draft Position (ADP) data. The fact of the matter is, given the requisite timing of the mock draft every year (typically mid-December) and the very nature of print media, the draft results are bound to become somewhat obsolete by the time they reach newsstands. Fantasy outlooks will change for a variety of reasons, and by even late February, drafts will undoubtedly play out much differently.
Thus, the discussion of the results must hold up. There is value in getting insight on strategy and sleepers straight from the industry's top experts via a Q&A, but hopefully this approach will prove equally -- and perhaps even more -- beneficial both initially and later on in the draft season, as we will pinpoint some of the most volatile players and give readers an idea of more sweeping, long-lasting trends to keep in mind on draft day. A special Thank You to Greg Ambrosius of the NFBC for supplying the data, and to everyone who took the time to be a part of the mock draft.
First off, it's important to understand why ADP is important. It may seem elementary to some, but knowing where players are typically going in these expert drafts allows you to gauge perceived values and to avoid overspending. Overspending can cripple your chances of winning your league, especially if you do so in the early rounds, when players' draft ranges -- from their earliest recorded draft position (min. pick) to their latest (max. pick) -- is typically the smallest. Why spend a fourth-round pick on a player when you can get him in the seventh? Leaping a round, or even several, to grab a player won't kill your team, but making a habit of it early in a draft probably will. Drafts never fully adhere to ADP, but knowing the trends increases your odds of emerging with the best possible roster.
Let's address the elephant in the room. Miguel Cabrera fell to Todd Zola at No. 9 in the draft, a full six spots lower than his ADP (3.0). Is this fair, or an overreaction? Even in a "down year," Cabrera finished as a top-eight hitter in 5x5 rotisserie leagues, but he is entering his age-32 season and is recovering from significant ankle surgery. Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski left open the possibility that Cabrera may not be ready for Opening Day, so his progress in the coming months will significantly impact his average draft position. Rather than view this as a true indicator of his March ADP, simply know that he's slipping in the minds of some experts and that his draft position may be the most volatile of any player likely to be taken in the first round. The gap between his draft position and ADP was, however, rivaled in the first round by Jose Abreu, who was taken by Vlad Sedler with the second overall pick – more than five spots higher than his ADP (7.4).
Cabrera was one of just five hitters taken in the top-100 picks that was drafted later than their latest recorded draft position (max. pick). By comparison, there were 18 such pitchers. The other hitters were Anthony Rendon (#18, range: 10-14), Anthony Rizzo (#21, range: 15-19), Dee Gordon (#50, range: 34-49), and Nelson Cruz (#75, range: 18-64). Of those players, Cruz's gap between his draft position and his ADP (37.6) was by far the largest at 37.4 spots. Meanwhile, 26 players taken in the top-100 were selected earlier in our mock than their earliest recorded draft position (min. pick), all but one of which was a hitter. The lone pitcher was Masahiro Tanaka, arguably the most polarizing player in fantasy heading into 2015, who went 78th overall to Jake Letarski. With pitchers falling, the esteemed drafters felt comfortable reaching on hitters early. There were some dramatic gaps between draft position and ADP among hitters in the top-100, led by Jhonny Peralta at No. 96 (+69, ADP: 165.0), Chris Carter at 84 (+60.4, ADP: 144.4), Shin-Soo Choo at 98 (+52.4, ADP: 150.4), and Jason Heyward at 40 (+44.4, ADP: 84.4).
These numbers justify and reinforce the philosophy of many experts. Don't reach on pitching early. There is simply no reason to, because the pitching pool is very deep and quality pitchers will fall. However, is there a point in the draft where the trends reverse? Is it wise to follow suit with other drafters and continue passing on those stud pitchers that fall early? Perhaps less than we realize.
From picks 200-400, 54 players were taken earlier than their earliest recorded draft position (min. pick), 31 of which were pitchers. So, yes, the trends did indeed reverse during the middle portion of the draft (570 picks), as drafters began to reach for pitchers and let hitters slide. Not only were pitchers being reached for, but the gaps between their draft position and ADP were far wider. In fact, the biggest gaps were found during this part of the draft. Paul Sporer grabbed the Tigers' Shane Greene at pick 300, more than 200 spots higher than his ADP (502.2). Paul will be the first to admit, he's a Tigers fan, but he's also an expert on starting pitching, and his emphatic endorsement should be enough for many players to at least keep an eye on Greene throughout spring training. Other large gaps in draft position vs. ADP during this portion of the draft included Brandon Finnegan at pick No. 339 (+162.8, ADP: 501.8), Miguel Gonzalez at 268 (+158.8, ADP: 426.8), Joe Kelly at 334 (+150.8, ADP: 484.8), Nate Eovaldi at 307 (+109.8, ADP: 416.8), and Jonathan Broxton at No. 222 (+96, ADP: 318.0).
Of those 31 pitchers taken earlier than their minimum pick from 200-400, 13 were taken between picks 339-400. Thus, it would be fair to suggest that rounds 22-27 (in 15-team leagues) are a time when owners really start to scramble to fill their pitching staffs and reach for speculative options. Is this a flawed approach? The belief that pitching is more volatile than hitting is fairly well accepted at this point, and if that's the case, why would we want to pass on relatively dependable pitching options at a fair price early, and then reach for lesser options in the middle rounds? If nothing else, it's a question to keep in mind should Stephen Strasburg, David Price, or Johnny Cueto fall to you in the first five rounds, and if you're skeptical about spending on pitching early.
From picks 200-400, 43 players were taken later than their latest recorded draft position (max pick), 27 of which were hitters. The biggest gaps in draft position versus ADP among these players; Chris Owings at No. 360 (-111.8, ADP: 248.2), Everth Cabrera at 369 (-103.8, ADP: 265.2), Yusmeiro Petit at 332 (-90, ADP: 242.0), Josh Reddick at 356 (-89.2, ADP: 266.8), Mark Teixeira at 345 (-83.4, ADP: 261.6), Kennys Vargas at 298 (-79.2, ADP: 218.8), Asdrubal Cabrera at 277 (-73.4, ADP: 203.6), Garrett Richards at 206 (-75.8, ADP: 130.2), Francisco Rodriguez at 275 (-68.2, ADP: 206.8), and Matt Shoemaker at 244 (-65.8, ADP: 178.2). Some decent pitchers fell to be sure, but on the whole, the quality of the hitting that slipped through the cracks during this period was greater than the quality of the pitching.
Looking at where catchers went in the mock draft can reveal other useful trends for fantasy players, especially those in two-catcher leagues (as this was). Backstops were largely overdrafted, with Jonathan Lucroy, Yan Gomes, Salvador Perez, Evan Gattis, and Yadier Molina all taken at least 18 spots ahead of their ADP, something that's hardly surprising given the widely perceived scarcity at the position. Between picks 192 and 219, six catchers were taken, five of which were drafted earlier than their minimum pick. Those five catchers; Yasmani Grandal at No. 192 (+33.6, ADP: 225.6), Mike Zunino at 193 (+23.8, ADP: 216.8), Derek Norris at 201 (+45.6, ADP: 246.6), Jason Castro at 204 (+51.2, ADP: 255.2), and Robinson Chirinos at 219 (+107.8, ADP: 326.8). Averting this run on second catchers, seemingly between rounds 12-15, could afford you the chance to land better bargains at that stage of the draft. Some of the other players taken between 192 and 219; Jean Segura at No. 196 (-51, ADP: 145.0), Mat Latos at 198 (+12.2, ADP: 210.2), Jered Weaver at 200 (-2.8, ADP: 197.2), Alex Rios at 212 (-36.6, ADP: 175.4), and Brandon Belt at 214 (-55.2, ADP: 158.8).
ADP is a constantly-evolving tool. The numbers change every day, and many players' ADP will be much different come spring, but getting an early gauge on risers and fallers, as well as a read on volatile players and trends, can help you better anticipate the upcoming changes in ADP and greatly improve your chances on draft day. Please note that the Diamondbacks' Yasmany Tomas and the Braves' Jose Peraza, who were taken with picks 182 and 296, respectively, were not included in the ADP data provided.
This article appears in the 2015 edition of the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide.
