This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Round of 32 at the ATP Masters 1000 in Monte Carlo continues Wednesday. This is the first Masters 1000 of the year held on clay, and thus the first action on the surface for many of the top players. Round of 64 matches provided a look at most players' clay-court form, except for the top eight seeds, who received byes straight into the Round of 32. Between underdogs who are most comfortable on clay and favorites who aren't, there are some intriguing upset possibilities on the docket Wednesday, but one clear-cut favorite shouldn't have much trouble dealing with a familiar foe. Match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Since it's so early in the clay-court season, there's a delicate balance between weighing a player's form in recent tournaments on other surfaces and their historical results on clay. Finding that balance isn't easy, but some enticing options still stand out, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Taylor Fritz (+150) vs. Marin Cilic
Both of these guys play their best tennis on faster surfaces, and Fritz has posted significantly better results recently, so it's a bit surprising that Cilic is viewed as a significant favorite here. Fritz won the Indian Wells title last month and has boosted his ranking to No. 13 with an 18-6 start to the season. Meanwhile, Cilic is ranked No. 22 and dropping, as he's 10-7 overall in 2022 and 2-4 in his last six matches. Given his recent form, the world's highest-ranked American has to fancy his chances in the first clay-court clash between these two (they split two previous meetings on hard courts).
Alex de Minaur (+275) vs. Andrey Rublev
Rublev made the final at this tournament last year, but his aggressive style hasn't translated to consistent clay-court results, as Rublev went just 3-2 at the other two clay court Masters 1000 events leading up to the French Open and lost in the first round at Roland Garros in 2021. The eighth-ranked Russian boasts an impressive 18-4 record this year, but he's coming off his worst performance of the year — a 6-3, 6-0 shellacking at the hands of Nick Kyrgios in Miami. With a first-round bye here, Rublev has yet to get the taste of that defeat out of his mouth heading into this matchup against another tough Aussie in de Minaur, who leads their career head-to-head 2-0.
Honorable Mention:
Lorenzo Musetti (+135) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
Lock It In
Jannik Sinner (-340) vs. Emil Ruusuvuori
Sinner's 3-0 against Ruusuvuori since the 2021 Miami Open, and while he had to save match points in their most recent encounter, this rematch should be much more straightforward for the 12th-ranked Italian. Ruusuvuori came into this tournament with a 2-7 career clay-court record, while Sinner has proven to be a tough out on any surface. Of Sinner's six losses on clay last year, four came against either Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic or Stefanos Tsitsipas, all of whom play at a level on the surface that Ruusuvuori hasn't come close to reaching.
Honorable Mention:
Pablo Carreno Busta (-425) vs. Alexander Bublik
Value Bet
Albert Ramos-Vinolas (+130) vs. Cameron Norrie
Norrie is ranked 27 spots ahead of Ramos-Vinolas at No. 10, but the rankings don't tell the whole story here. Clay is the Spaniard's best surface and the Brit's worst. Ramos-Vinolas leads their head-to-head 3-1 overall and has won all three times that they've met on clay, so a Ramos-Vinolas win would hardly be much of an upset here, making him a nice value bet at plus-130.
Honorable Mention:
David Goffin (-155) vs. Daniel Evans
